{!-- ra:00000000012cf7fc000000000138c817 --} Daily Commentary, Monday, 26 September a.d. 2016
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Daily Commentary
Monday, 26 September a.d. 2016 Browse the commentary archive

Several folks have asked if I would be watching the debate tonight. Not if I can help it. I need to rearrange my sock drawer and clean the dust bunnies out from under the bed.

Hillary is so evil I can barely bear to look on her, & Trump should be arrested by the Haircut Police. Hillary cannot possibly win. All Trump has to do is stand up without drooling on himself, & he will look presidential enough to trump all the propaganda from Hillary & the foaming-at-the-mouth Establishment media.

Meanwhile stocks fell out of those rising triangles today, after a false breakout. Chart for Dow Industrials is here, http://schrts.co/Q6KUW0 , for S&P500 here, http://schrts.co/vtdPMb

Now y'all argue with the chart if you want, but I've been beaten up too many times trying that. Dow unequivocally confirms breakdown with any close lower than the last low, 17,992.21. Analogous number for the S&P500 is 2,119.12.

Here's the Dow in gold chart, http://schrts.co/Wnv9Ts

After travelling sidewise through July, August, and most of September, the Dow in Gold is now breaking down. Confirmation comes with lower close than last low, 13.342 oz, against today's close of 13,46 oz.

Look at the Dow in silver here, http://schrts.co/ohwLZP

Weaker by far than the Dow in gold, the Dow in silver has obviously broken down from the little corrective uptrend since 1 August. Close below 884.68, last low, sends it skidding. Today it close at 923.39 oz.

US dollar chart simply catalogs one failure treading on the heels of another, http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT Double tops 1 September & 21 September around 96.30 capped the advance. Since thing the dollar has fallen back below its 50 & 20 DMAs. Indicators are negative. Today it fell again, down 20 basis points to 95.19. Any natural chart would go lower, but all currencies are subject to surprise central bank manipulation.

Euro chart is here, with a tortured sidewinding that might be an upside down head & shoulders. Rose 0.24% to $1.1253. Yen rose 0.71% to 99.71. Can't make any sense out of it but if you held a gun to my head and made me express an opinion, I'd say, "Shoot! But it will probably go up!"

Gold gained $2.50 to $1,339.70. Silver lost 21.7¢ (1.1%) to 1951.6¢.

Gold is beating its shoulder at resistance from $1,345 - 1,348. It remains above the 50 DMA & 20 DMA. Momentum is up. It will break through, & beat leather for $1,400. Probably this week.

Silver has bounced off the top downtrend channel off the July high. No surprise, so no panic. Should break through that line this week and sprint for 2100¢.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Learn what most investors—including credentialed financial experts—don't know.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
23-Sep-16 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,339.70 2.50 0.19%
Silver, $/oz 19.73 -0.22 -1.09%
Gold/Silver Ratio 67.891 0.864 1.29%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0147 -0.0002 -1.27%
Platinum 1,042.50 -14.10 -1.33%
Palladium 696.05 -10.35 -1.47%
S&P 500 2,164.69 -12.49 -0.57%
Dow 18,094.83 -166.52 -0.91%
Dow in GOLD $s 279.21 -3.10 -1.10%
Dow in GOLD oz 13.51 -0.15 -1.10%
Dow in SILVER oz 916.98 1.63 0.18%
US Dollar Index 95.19 -0.20 -0.21%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,337.50      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,369.60 1,382.31 1,382.31
1/2 AE 0.50 681.62 705.53 1,411.06
1/4 AE 0.25 344.15 359.45 1,437.81
1/10 AE 0.10 140.33 146.46 1,464.56
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,300.53 1,309.53 1,335.98
British sovereign 0.24 317.21 330.21 1,402.76
French 20 franc 0.19 247.21 251.21 1,345.55
Krugerrand 1.00 1,348.20 1,358.20 1,358.20
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,347.50 1,361.50 1,361.50
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 769.06 702.19 1,404.38
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 341.06 357.78 1,431.13
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 141.78 145.79 1,457.88
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,597.98 1,608.98 1,334.48
.9999 bar 1.00 1,342.18 1,349.50 1,349.50
SPOT SILVER: 19.45      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 13,867.43 14,153.43 19.80
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,544.53 5,694.53 19.30
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,924.50 1,959.50 19.60
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 195.95 200.95 20.10
1 oz .999 round 1.00 19.25 19.75 19.75
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 20.95 22.45 22.45
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,042.50      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,057.50 1,087.50 1,087.50
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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