{!-- ra:000000006804278a000000000949273a --} Daily Commentary, Monday, 30 November a.d. 2015
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Daily Commentary
Monday, 30 November a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

Whoa! You all are Johnny-on-the-spot for doing favors! I asked y'all last Wednesday to take a survey for me to find out what y'all want or don't want in my daily commentary. Not quite a stadium full of folks responded, & I deeply appreciate it. Thank you.

Now, for the rest of you heel-diggers and foot-draggers. This is NOT a trick to worm your email address out of you. No emails about Caribbean cruises, Burial insurance, or Things Better Left Unmentioned & Unmentionable. Besides, think about it: if you subscribe, I already have your email.

So, please, as a favor to an old Moneychanger, take the survey at http://bit.ly/1XrVchK Three minutes, no more.

Taking the survey, even tardy, gets you a chance to win signed copies of At Home in Dogwood Mudhole Volumes 1 & 2, Heiland, and The Greening. One winner will receive all four books, with a drawing on 11 December 2015.

I thank y'all in advance, most heartily.


The world conference on climate change a.k.a. global warming a.k.a. global cooling opened in Paris today, and promises to do immeasurable damage to the world economy. By a blessed intervention, the last one of these Totalitarian Tête-à-têtes in Copenhagen in 2009 was blown up when somebody hacked email at the Climatic Research Unit at the U. of East Anglia that showed the objective "scientists" were cooking the books in a scientific conspiracy. Whoops. Poor ol' Al Gore, the global bore, faded.

But one-world totalitarians are nothing if not persistent, so here six years later they're resurrecting the same old scarecrow with a new name. All we can do is pray for another hacker. Well, we could pray for an epidemic of common sense, but that's not likely among that climate change crowd.

International Monetary Fund, scourge of benevolent human beings everywhere, today accepted the Chinese yuan into its reserve currency basket for its phony currency unit, the Special Drawing Right. Before the SDR contained only the US dollar, euro, pound sterling, and yen. The inclusion won't take effect until 1 October 2016. Weightings will be: US dollar, 41.73%, Euro 30.93%, yen 8.33%, pound 8.09%, and yuan 10.92%. This seats China at the table with the Big Boys.

The decision makes yuan-denominated assets available to central bank portfolios, but don't expect a run into yuan. The yuan is managed even less skillfully than those other sorry egg-sucking dog currencies. Altogether, the yuan's promotion is more politics and window dressing than substance, but wait. It is a harbinger of the US dollar's decline as the bull reserve currency. With that decline goes US global hegemony, but don't discount the US yet. It's still the only country whose currency is backed by an army that will invade your country if you squawk about its foot on your neck.

With all that cheerful news behind us, let's turn to stocks. They had a headache today. Friday was confused with some indices barely up, some barely down, but today the bewilderment dissipated as every index plopped. Dow lost 78.57 or 0.44% to 17,719.92. S&P500 edged down 9.7 (0.46%) to 2,080.41. These are not in themselves death dealing changes, but the Dow closed just below its 20 day moving average and the S&P500 squatted down dead on its 20 DMA. That promises lower prices.

Friday's hijinks in silver & gold brought about slightly higher highs in the Dow in gold (16.85 oz.) and Dow in Silver (1,265 oz). Dow in silver is as overbought as antimacassars at an old ladies' convention. Both fell today.

US dollar index inched up 14 basis points to 100.21, a new high close for the move, but barely. It has formed a Rising Wedge, which usually breaks out downward (wedges usually break opposite to the direction they point). Scurvy dollar index has not undergone any sizeable correction since it began rising mid-October, so some kick-back is due. MACD has rolled over earthward, Rate of Change rolled over 8 November, and barely crawling above zero line. Chart's at http://schrts.co/DRjkbb

What can I say about the euro? What more contempt and scorn can I heap up? What other colorful rotten tomatoes can I throw at it, despicable political Frankenstein of authoritarian bureaucrats, thirsty vampire of national economies? Greedy tick on the armpit of nations? Revolting tapeworm in the body economic? Well, lots if I put my mind to it as it deserves. It fell again, 0.24% to $1.0569. At least its rate of fall is falling. I reckon that's saying something good, but no more'n I have to.

Don't nobody pretend the yen isn't managed closer than a five year old girl in one of them beauty pagents, do they? It dropped 0.18% to 81.25.

While the Big Cats are away, the little nasty mice will play. Floor traders often play on holiday thinned markets like Thanksgiving. Since they know where the stops are, they're easy to run. Then the market recovers & the day has little effect. On Friday, then, gold dropped $13.80 to close it's very short holiday trading day at $1,056.20 on Comex, lowest since 2011 peak. Silver, however, did NOT confirm with a lower close, although it lost 15 cents to 1400.8c. Nor did gold stock indices confirm with lower closes. All that promises positive days.

Today Gold jumped back $9.60 (0.9%) to 1,065.80, but still closed lower for the month. Silver recaptured 4.2 cents (0.3%) to 1405c.

Over the weekend, on Saturday, gold again tumbled toward its Friday low about $1,054, but recovered and came back strongly today. So far, so good. If Friday didn't make the low, it ought to come in December's first half.

Silver painted a like picture over the weekend, with a 1393c low on Friday, and a 1401c low on Saturday, followed by a less than sterling recovery today.

So, what do we have? A new low for gold Friday with silver & gold stocks refusing to confirm. Bullish Commitments of Traders stats for both silver & gold. End of seasonal period for silver & gold lows. Jupiter aligning with Mars -- no, wait, wait, that's not in there -- Strike that. Finally, we have central bank criminals working hard as they can to destroy their currencies, carrying historically unimagined policies to absurd, preposterous lengths. Yep, sounds like a recipe for resuming the silver & gold bull market to me, but shucks! I ain't no New York smarty. I'm just a nat'ral born durned fool from Tennessee.

Now what silver & gold need is just some positive reversal sign. Jes' y'all wait. It's comin'.

On 30 November 1487 Duke Albert IV of Bavaria promulgated the Reinheitsgebot for beer (Purity Law) stating that beer could contain only three ingredients: Malz, Hopfen, und Wasser -- Malt, Hops, & Water. Well, there has to be Hefe (yeast) in there, too, or you'll wind up with disgusting hop-flavored malt water.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Don't just survive. Thrive.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
30-Nov-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,065.80 9.60 0.91%
Silver, $/oz 14.05 0.04 0.30%
Gold/Silver Ratio 75.858 0.458 0.61%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0132 -0.0001 -0.60%
Platinum 832.30 -0.70 -0.08%
Palladium 541.95 -7.65 -1.39%
S&P 500 2,080.41 -9.70 -0.46%
Dow 17,719.92 -78.57 -0.44%
Dow in GOLD $s 343.69 -4.66 -1.34%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.63 -0.23 -1.34%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,261.20 -9.39 -0.74%
US Dollar Index 100.21 0.14 0.14%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,064.50      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,096.44 1,101.76 1,101.76
1/2 AE 0.50 542.39 561.52 1,123.05
1/4 AE 0.25 273.85 286.08 1,144.34
1/10 AE 0.10 111.67 116.56 1,165.63
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,036.12 1,045.12 1,066.23
British sovereign 0.24 252.46 265.46 1,127.71
French 20 franc 0.19 200.23 204.23 1,093.91
Krugerrand 1.00 1,078.34 1,088.34 1,088.34
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,074.50 1,088.50 1,088.50
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 612.09 558.86 1,117.73
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 271.45 284.75 1,139.02
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 112.84 116.03 1,160.31
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,275.66 1,286.66 1,067.15
.9999 bar 1.00 1,068.23 1,076.50 1,076.50
SPOT SILVER: 14.10      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,618.75 11,903.75 16.65
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 3,967.75 4,117.75 13.96
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,435.00 1,460.00 14.60
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 142.50 147.50 14.75
1 oz .999 round 1.00 14.20 14.66 14.66
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 15.60 16.85 16.85
SPOT PLATINUM: 832.30      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 847.30 877.30 877.30
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Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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