{!-- ra:000000002b29ca590000000079f27697 --} Weekly Market report, Friday, 29 July a.d. 2016
The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 29 July a.d. 2016 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  22-Jul-16 29-Jul-16 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,965.70 2,031.20 65.50 3.3
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,323.10 1,349.00 25.90 2.0
Gold/silver ratio 67.309 66.414 -0.895 -1.3
Silver/gold ratio 0.0149 0.0151 0.0002 1.3
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 290.15 282.45 -7.69 -2.7
Dow in gold ounces 14.04 13.66 -0.37 -2.7
Dow in Silver ounces 944.74 907.46 -37.29 -3.9
Dow Industrials 18,570.85 18,432.24 -138.61 -0.7
S&P500 2,175.03 2,173.60 -1.43 -0.1
US dollar index 97.46 95.49 -1.97 -2.0
Platinum 1,085.60 1,150.30 64.70 6.0
Palladium 684.45 708.05 23.60 3.4

Great week for metals, not so good for stocks. Gold keeps rising & getting overboughter in the teeth of sky-high CoTs. Stocks are sputtering. Platinum gained 6%! Palladium 3.4%. US dollar index tanked today

US GDP numbers appeared at less than half what economists expected (1.2% vs. 2.6%), & the Bank of Japan announced puny stimulus measures, contrary to what everyone expected. It was a toxic cocktail for the US dollar index. It skidded 124 basis points (1.28%). See http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT

The dollar spent part of June and all of July building a rising flat topped triangle, broke out to the upside and promised to rise, rise, rise. Then on the FOMC's news Wednesday that it's not about to raise interest rates, the dollar index sagged. Today's news was a bullet in the head, sending it slicing through its 200, 20, and even 50 DMA far below. In fact, the dollar index has returned to the 95.50 support level we know so well.

It's the green mile: dollar is a dead man walking -- for a while.

Well, shut my nat'ral born durn Tennessee fool mouth! The euro actually rose. Lo, http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT

This is the sort of bogus action that SCREAMS "Nice Government Men! What do I mean? The Euro fell out of it trading range when Brexit hit in June. Formed an even-sided triangle, which nature predicts would break DOWN. Broke down. Then, in three magic-filled days, the euro nixes all that, shoots up through its 20,, 200, & 50 DMAs. Sure.

Well, if 'tis nature, it means the euro is way stronger than anyone suspected, & all those toiled-paper stuffed European banks aren't really stuffed with toilet paper, & the European economy is fine, & Brexit won't hurt Europe way more than the UK. Thus far nature.

But suspicion of the NGM says they engineered the (same but upside-down) fall in the dollar for terrorized, toenail-biting fear that the euro would sink suddenly to its natural level, i.e., zero.

For me, it's no problem understanding. Central banking criminals meet every month at the Bank for International Settlements in Geneva for supper together. Do they talk about the rubber chicken? Or do they discuss who needs what exchange rate? Wow, let me pull off my socks & add that up on fingers & toes.

Wait! I am plumb forgetful. Did I mention all those European banks failing their stress tests today? Or that Deutsche Bank was among the 12 weakest? What was I thinking about.

Upon Japanese PM Abe's re-election, speculators expected Big inflation out of the BoJ. Today the BoJ double crossed 'em. Those scrambling to flee left behind a lot of skin. See? http://schrts.co/UuqBFa

Here's another one of those Nature/NGM arguments. Yen fell out of a rising wedge in May, but instead of following through to the earth's core, rose again, to much higher highs. Sure, part of that rally may be credited to scared money fleeing Europe or China, but today the yen rose thanks solely to the BoJ announcing anemic inflation moves.

INFLATION MARKETS. Last fall I began expecting an end to the commodity price deflation in force since 2008. Sure enough, oil, copper, & the CRB rallied.

Oil rallied from a February low, peaked in June, & yesterday hit its 200 DMA, a likely candidate for a downward correction to the Feb-June rise. Must not drop much lower, though. Chart is here, http://schrts.co/ggTMQ5

Copper bottomed in January and has traded sideways but higher. Now stands above its 200 DMA. View at http://schrts.co/XadyaG

CRB commodity index double bottomed in January and February and rallied smartly to June. Broke down from its upward channel in July, & hath now reached its 200 DMA. Turnaround time? Chart's here, http://schrts.co/XadyaG

What signifieth all this? If commodities prices keep rallying, it won't be because the global overcapacity spawned by a 20 year central bank inflation has been worked off. Rather, it ominously foretells that the way the central bankers will choose out of the deflation is heavy monetary inflation. Gold & silver are also mumbling that.

The Gold/Bank Stock Index spread charts the flow of confidence into financial and monetary markets (when it moves down) or into gold (when it moves up). It broke out of its old channel upside in January & soared. Settled back to trade in a downtrending channel. Then it behaved as almost all break-out markets do, it came back to the breakout point for a kiss good-bye and shot up again ot a June (Brexit) peak.

Yes, it traded back down, but only to the top of that channel, for another kiss good-bye.. In the last three days, having revisited the channel line and its 50 DMA, the GOLD/BKX has turned up again. Y'all stifle the tears: banks have a hard whippin' comin'.

As yesterday, today stock indices gainsaid each other. S&P500 rose 3.54 (0.16) to 2,173.60 but the Dow Industrials fell 24.11 (0.13%) to 18,432.24.

I don't really care that stock indices are rising in paper terms, because that answers no questions, butters no bread, boils no turnips, broils no pork chops. Don't tell you a durned thing. So I measure stocks in gold and silver.

Dow in gold peaked in December & tanked into February. Y'all go look, http://schrts.co/oEJUUv Make sure I'm not making this up.

Dow in gold rallied correctively from that 12.558 oz low, then traced out a megaphone reversal. Broke down from that on Brexit, but in the sharp post-Brexit stock rally corrected again. It has now reversed that correction and fallen through its 20 & 50 DMAs, turning decisively down. By the way, only one peak of that rally came near touching the 200 DMA. Weak as hash-house soup, & indicators shout it will fall further.

Dow in silver, ahhh, look, http://schrts.co/yNRvIo

Dow in silver also shows a December high, but has been weaker than the DiG. In June it fell slap through support from the previous two lows, and made a new low at 889 oz. It rallied timidly to 948 oz, then the rally failed and it has since cut again through its 20 DMA. Both these indicators shout that stocks toped against metals in December, & have resumed their primary trend. That trend will take stocks to one to two ounces of gold and sixteen to thirty-two ounces of silver, before it ends.

Both silver & gold proved Wednesday's breakouts genuine. Today Comex gold rose $16.70 (1.25%) to $1,349.00. Silver added 15.2 (0.75%) to 2031.2

Behold, the beautiful gold chart, http://schrts.co/Eyyuq1

Y'all forgive me, I promise I'm not just being pig-headed. Rather, I am looking at a gold chart that screams to me, "Higher!" Higher price for three days have confirmed a bullish breakout from the bullish flag. Volume is rising, slightly but rising. MACD is turning up, as is ROC. Today it closed above the former upper channel boundary. "HIGHER!" It's aiming at $1,450.

Now look at silver, http://schrts.co/Eyyuq1

Three days it has closed higher out of that pennant formation, three days and above its 20 DMA. It has worked off the RSI overboughtness that prevailed through July's first half. Volume has jumped with price. MACD is turning up.

And physical gold & silver buyers have dried up. That's not only typical of summer, but also typical of early rises in a new trend. Buyers don't believe the new prices yet, so wait and wait for corrections, but the corrections never come. Finally they panic and buy at higher prices. Odd, people love to buy a rising market. Human nature.

I reckon silver will hit 2300 - 2400ยข before a real correction bites.

I've said too much already, so I'm not going to point y'all to the gold & silver weekly & monthly charts that show clear, confirmed breakouts. Just assume I did. SPECIAL OFFER: SILVER DOLLARS

Sunday the month ends, & I want to clean out my inventory. Behold, prices are reduced to sell quickly, all US silver dollars minted before 1936.

We don't sell a lot of silver dollars because of their usually high premium, but everybody know that THIS is America's favorite coin. They would work supremely well as barter items for survival.

Spot basis for this offer is $1,349 gold and $20.31 silver.

LOT No. 1: Pre-1905 MORGAN SILVER DOLLARS

The silver dollar is "coin of the realm" of the United States made so by the Constitution & the Coinage Act of 1792. It contains 371.25 grains of fine silver (0.7734 troy ounce) when minted, but we count circulated dollars at 0.765 troy ounce.

After the Crime of 1873 when congress demonetized the silver dollar, silver partisans passed the Bland-Allison Act forcing the government to mint them again. The design by engraver George T. Morgan with Lady Liberty on the obverse and an eagle on the reverse justly was acclaimed as a classic.

I have Only Nineteen (19) of these circulated pre-1905 Morgan silver dollars, various dates & mintmarks, all in Very Good (VG) grade or better. At $27 each, the lot of 19 costs $513.00, plus $35 shipping for a total of $548.00. I have one lot only.

LOT NO. 2, 1921 Morgan Dollars

During World War I the US government funneled millions of ounces of silver to India to keep the British Imperial government alive. In 1918 congress passed the Pittman Act, and in 1921 the mint began striking the Morgan dollar again. Millions were struck before the new design, the Peace Dollar, was introduced later that year. I have Twenty-four (24) circulated 1921 Morgan Silver dollars, VG or better, for $23.50 each, or the lot for $564+ $35 shipping, a total of $599.00

LOT NO. 3, PEACE SILVER DOLLARS

Sculptor Anthony de Francisci designed the Peace dollar. The obverse represents Liberty in profile, based on his own wife, Teresa. On the reverse Francisci placed a naturalistic eagle at rest, symbolizing the return of peace.

The coin was first struck in relief so high the coins wouldn't stack, so the dies were re-cut with low relief devices. Peace dollars were minted from 1921 through 1928, then in 1934 and 1935.

I have 111 pieces only, two lots of 40 each and one of 31 each. A lot of 40 at $21 each plus $35 shipping comes to $875. The lot of 31 at $21 each plus $35 shipping comes to $686.

LOT NO. 4, CULL SILVER DOLLARS, MOSTLY MORGAN BUT SOME PEACE

Another reason I don't sell a lot of silver dollars is that so often dealers overgrade them, trying to pass cull coins that grade less than Very Good as VG. These are all coins I culled because they didn't meet the VG+ grade, all dates, all types. They may have holes, rim nicks or dings, or they may simply be so worn that they aren't VG. You are buying them "as is."

I have 23 only cull silver dollars at $19.50 each + $35 shipping, $639.50 in total.

If you order more than one lot of anything, we charge shipping only once.

Special Conditions:

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail.

Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed. ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to offers@the-moneychanger.com. No phone orders, please. Please do NOT order by replying to THIS email, because it will delay your email.

Your email must include your complete name, address, & phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail, till supply is exhausted.

4. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

5. You must send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours. Sorry, no credit cards.

7. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship.

Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Don't just survive. Thrive.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
29-Jul-16 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,349.00 16.70 1.3
Silver, $/oz 20.31 0.15 0.8
Gold/Silver Ratio 66.414 0.817 1.2
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0151 0.0001 0.7
Platinum 1,150.30 14.70 1.3
Palladium 708.05 10.70 1.5
S&P 500 2,173.60 3.54 0.2
Dow 18,432.24 -24.11 -0.1
Dow in GOLD $s 282.45 -3.89 -1.4
Dow in GOLD oz 13.66 -0.19 -1.4
Dow in SILVER oz 907.46 -8.04 -0.9
US Dollar Index 95.49 -1.24 -1.3
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,350.40      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,384.16 1,395.64 1,395.64
1/2 AE 0.50 688.19 712.34 1,424.67
1/4 AE 0.25 347.47 362.92 1,451.68
1/10 AE 0.10 140.34 147.87 1,478.69
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,314.40 1,323.40 1,350.13
British sovereign 0.24 320.27 333.27 1,415.75
French 20 franc 0.19 254.01 258.01 1,381.95
Krugerrand 1.00 1,355.80 1,365.80 1,365.80
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,358.40 1,374.40 1,374.40
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 776.48 708.96 1,417.92
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 344.35 361.23 1,444.93
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 143.14 147.19 1,471.94
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,616.65 1,627.65 1,349.96
.9999 bar 1.00 1,355.13 1,362.40 1,362.40
SPOT SILVER: 20.33      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 18.00 20.00 26.14
90% silver coin bags 0.72 14,321.45 14,607.45 20.43
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,879.35 6,041.35 20.48
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,023.00 2,078.00 20.78
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 202.30 208.30 20.83
1 oz .999 round 1.00 20.23 20.88 20.88
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 22.08 23.08 23.08
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,150.30      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Platinum Platypus 1.00 1,165.30 1,195.30 1,195.30
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888-218-9226

Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

For complete details on how to buy from us or sell to us, please click here.