{!-- ra:000000000e51f5510000000047b5c99c --} Daily Commentary, Wednesday, 25 March a.d. 2015
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Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 25 March a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

Y'all are gonna love this!

According to a Washington Post report on 17 March, the Pentagon can't account for moor than $500 million in US military aid given to Yemen, now overrun by Iranian backed rebels. Missing are 1.25 million rounds of ammo, 200 Glock 9mm pistols, 200 M4 rifles, 300 sets of night goggles, 250 suits of body armor, 160 Humvees (that's not a mistake), 4 Huey II Helicopters, 4 hand launched Raven drones, and a couple of transport and surveillance aircraft. Most hilarious of all was this straight-faced comment from some official: "Even in the best-case scenario in an unstable country, we never have 100% accountability."

Somebody ought to tell the yankee government, $500 million here, $500 million there, pretty soon you're talking about REAL money.

The Fed shillers & barkers were ought in force today, with Atlanta Fed Hed-Criminal Lockhart hinting at interest rate rises in the summer, & St Louis Fed Hed-Criminal plumping for higher rates in a speech elsewhere. So they helped talk the dollar up 38 basis points to 97.58. Tomorrow the Fed will send out two other shillers & barkers to keep the mushrooms (you and me) confused.

Trouble is, I ain't confused. That's why I call them criminals, because they all belong to one vast banking criminal network that is sucking the wealth and the life out of my country. Yeah, yeah, they wear ties and fine suits & everybody shows 'em respect, but as Woody Guthrie said, "Some rob you with a six-gun, And some with a fountain pen."

Euro, ever ready for an excuse to drop, fell 0.81% today to $1.0883. Still broken out above the 20 DMA and downtrend line, but hugging it scared goat stranded on a high cliff. Yen jumped up 0.25% to 83.90 & almost above its 50 DMA.

West Texas Intermediate Crude leapt 5.02% to $51.43/barrel today & draweth nigh the point of decision. Just above it faces both the downtrend line of its ghastly fall since June plus the upper boundary of the range it has occupied since 2015 began, 54.24 - 42.50. If oil breaks out upside along with copper all those Deflation Doomsayers will begin openly looking like the suckers they have been secretly all along. Simply not possible to have deflation when all money is borrowed into existence. Money supply MUST grow, or die. Money supply cannot deflate under those circumstances, although bubbles the bloating money supply blows up in industries & commodities may "deflate," but that is not monetary "deflation." These folks can't think any straighter than a central banker.

Complicating matters further, the yield on the US Treasury 10 year note is rising, above its 50 DMA today, up 4.53% to 2.007%. Last thing the Fed wants is the bond market challenging their hold on interest rates.

Stocks dropped the fourth day running, drawing closer to their 200 day moving average. After a ragged start that took the Dow to 17,579, it rallied later in the day to end down only -- only -- 40.31 or 0.26% at 17,678.23. S&P lost 4.9 or 0.15% to 2,056.15. Y'all tell me now again, cause I forget. What do you call a series of lower highs and lower lows? That's right, that's right, a DOWNtrend!

Lo & behold, the downtrend continued in the Dow in Silver today. It fell another 1.3% to S$1,333.53 silver dollars (1,031.40 troy ounces). Watching that 200 DMA at S$1,268.61 (981.19 oz).

Dow in Gold has fallen near enough its 50 DMA to smell it strongly. Lost 1.07% to close at G$303.26 gold dollars (14.67 oz) & the 50 DMA awaiteth at G$302.64 (14.64 oz). 200 DMA stands at G$289.61 (14.01 oz).

Gold finally crossed the magic $1,200 line today. Rose $7.80 (0.65%) to close Comex at $1,204.80. It rose as high as $1,219.50 & touched its 50 DMA, but fell back in the end. Today was a long stretch on the chart. At some point here we'll see a little breather, since gold has moved up 7 days running. This was the first hurdle I wanted to see conquered. And volume is rising.

Silver rose 14.2 cents (0.84%) to 1712.2c, above the magic $17 mark. High today hit 1741c. Silver has solidly built on its breakout & how has climbed above its 20 & 50 DMA's and is reaching for that 200 at 1786c. Maybe tomorrow.

You've had a breakout buying signal, now confirmed. Buy.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

At Home in Dogwood Mudhole
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
26-Mar-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,204.80 7.80 0.65%
Silver, $/oz 17.12 0.14 0.84%
Gold/Silver Ratio 70.366 -0.129 -0.18%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0142 0.0000 0.18%
Platinum 1,152.20 7.50 0.66%
Palladium 770.40 7.95 1.04%
S&P 500 2,056.15 -4.90 -0.24%
Dow 17,678.23 -40.31 -0.23%
Dow in GOLD $s 303.32 -2.67 -0.87%
Dow in GOLD oz 14.67 -0.13 -0.87%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,032.49 -11.01 -1.05%
US Dollar Index 97.58 0.38 0.39%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,203.90      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,236.41 1,246.04 1,246.04
1/2 AE 0.50 613.48 635.06 1,270.11
1/4 AE 0.25 309.75 323.55 1,294.19
1/10 AE 0.10 126.30 131.83 1,318.27
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,170.62 1,179.62 1,203.45
British sovereign 0.24 285.52 290.52 1,234.17
French 20 franc 0.19 226.45 230.45 1,234.35
Krugerrand 1.00 1,219.55 1,229.55 1,229.55
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,211.90 1,227.90 1,227.90
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 692.24 632.05 1,264.10
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 306.99 322.04 1,288.17
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 127.61 131.23 1,312.25
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,441.26 1,452.26 1,204.50
.9999 bar 1.00 1,208.11 1,215.90 1,215.90
SPOT SILVER: 17.06      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 18.50 21.00 27.45
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,912.90 13,270.40 18.56
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,840.95 4,990.95 16.92
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,696.00 1,761.00 17.61
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 169.60 176.10 17.61
1 oz .999 round 1.00 17.16 17.66 17.66
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.06 19.41 19.41
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,152.20      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,167.20 1,197.20 1,197.20
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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