Wednesday, 23 July a.d. 2008
Ahhh, when you're wrong, you're wrong, & this
morning proved me wrong.  Silver slammed down 54.5
points to close at 1740 (down nearly 100 cents in 3 days'
trading) and gold dropped 25.6 to 922.40 (down almost
$40 in 3 days).
The correction is of a larger degree than
I suspected.  Looking at the silver & gold charts,
it appears to be a pullback to the breakout point.
Go to stockcharts.com and punch in "$gold" for gold &
"$silver" for silver.  Get the 4 month chart.  Draw a
descending line across the April & May tops.
That upper boundary of the corrective triangle comes
out today a bit below the 50 day moving average
(912.78) around 905.  No surprise, 905 was heavy
resistance on the way up, and should prove heavy
support here.
Drawing the same line across silver's April & May
tops shows you that silver has already fallen back
into the triangle, and below its 50 DMA 917.53).
However, if you check the Fibonacci correction from the
19.55 recent high, you'll find that 38.2% lands around
1730, about today's low of 1729.  Silver could
drop to 1700 or 1650.  What!!  How is this possible?
Silver is MUCH more volatile than gold because it
is a MUCH smaller market.  It always swings wider
than gold, tops and bottoms.
Far from being embarrassed by my recommendation
yesterday to buy with both hands, I am pleased silver
& gold dropped to even lower prices today, so I can
say yet again, buy with both hands on every price retreat.
What might contradict my outlook?  A gold close
below 850 would change everything, & force me to
re-examine all presuppositions.
The GOLD/SILVER RATIO raced today up toward
its 200 DMA (53.318) to stop at 53.011.  It has formed
a broadening top or megaphone, as the tops climb
barely higher and the lows lower.  Usually this breaks
out downward.
STOCKS rose 29.88 points, call it unchanged.
I'd rather own gold falling 25.60 in a day than the Dow
rising 29.88 in a day.  A BIG drop is coming in stocks.
Wait for this little rally to wear itself out.
The US DOLLAR INDEX rose 32 basis points today
to 72.805.  Who knows whether it means anything?  It
remains locked in the same old trading range, and, of
course, remains the same crummy fiat currency it was
yesterday & forever.
On this day in 1914 the Austro-Hungarian empire
issued a series of ultimatums to Serbia following the
assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand by a Serb.
With days they had bumbled into World War I,
the worst blunder & catastrophe in European history.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt --
-- Silver and gold must be bought.
	- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a
very short time horizon.  Always invest with the primary trend.  Gold's
primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up
targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down,
targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated
assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trenddown.
Footnotes:
The US DOLLAR INDEX is a average exchange rate for the US dollar against the
Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish
Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US.  It gives a general measure
of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.
The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in
gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law).  The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend
of stocks against gold.  When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against
stocks in a trend that should last 15 - 20 years.  The DiG$'s chart is identical to
the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to
1896.  Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for
investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today.  Since its
August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a
G$80 - G$20 (4 - 1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).
The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to
buy the entire Dow.  The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.
The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, & shows
how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold.  The Ratio shows us
the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver.  When the Ratio's trend
is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold.  This trend targets a gold/silver
ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5 - 10 years.  That implies that
silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends.  When
both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the
rally.
23-Jul-08	Price	Change	CLOSES
Gold, $/oz	922.40	(25.60)	-2.7%
Silver,cents/oz	17.400	(0.545)	-3.0%
Gold/SilverRatio	53.01	0.183	0.3%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.01886	-0.000065	-0.3%
Platinum	1775.00	-47.40	-2.6%
Palladium	385.00	-19.35	-4.8%
S&P 500	1,282.19	5.19	0.4%
Dow	11,632.38	29.88	0.3%
DowInGOLD$s	$260.69	$   7.72	3.1%
Dow in GOLD oz.	12.611	0.373	3.1%
Dow in SILVER oz	669.49	22.93	3.5%
US Dollar Index	72.81	0.32	0.4%
NOTE:  The following are wholesale, not retail, prices.
To figure our  retail selling price,  multiply "Ask" price
by 1.035.  To figure  our retail buying price, multiply
"Bid" by 0.97.  Lower commissions apply to larger orders,
higher commissions to very small orders.
GOLD:	Fine Tr.Oz.	BID	ASK	Ask,$/oz.
American Eagle	1	946.17	953.17	953.17
1/2 AE	0.5	471.24	475.24	950.49
1/4 AE	0.25	236.77	240.27	961.09
1/10 AE	0.1	95.17	97.67	976.68
Aust. 100 corona	0.9802	894.98	901.98	920.20
British sovereign	0.2354	216.45	219.45	932.24
French 20 franc	0.1867	169.95	172.95	926.37
Krugerrand	1	921.34	931.34	931.34
Maple Leaf	1	917.20	924.20	924.20
1/2 Maple Leaf	0.5	471.24	475.24	950.49
1/4 Maple Leaf	0.25	236.77	240.27	961.09
1/10 ML	0.1	95.17	97.67	976.68
Mex 50 peso	1.2057	1,100.79	1,109.29	920.04
SILVER	Fine Tr.Oz.	BID	ASK	$/oz.
SilverDollarBags	0.765	16,500	18,500	24.18
90%SlvrCoinBags	0.715	12,066	12,316	17.22
US 40% silver 1/2s	0.295	4,831	4,956	16.80
100 oz..999 bar	100	1,748	1,788	17.88
10 oz. .999 bar	10	174.75	178.75	17.88
1 oz .999 rnd.	1	17.48	17.88	17.88
Am.Egl, 200oz. Min.	1	18.44	19.13	19.13
PLATINUM	Fine Tr.Oz.	BID	ASK	$/oz.
Plat. Am. Eagle	1	1,775	1,793	1,793
The Moneychanger
PO Box 178, Westpoint, Tennessee 38486
(888)218-9226; (931)766-6066; fax (931)766-1128
www.the-moneychanger.com
franklin@the-moneychanger.com
This is not an offer to buy or sell.  Prices subject to change without notice. To enter
an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066.Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.
While we are on the telephone, I will lock in a price and give you a contract
number.  That contract obliges me to sell and you to buy at that locked-in price,
regardless what later happens in the market.  If you buy when gold stands at $300
an ounce, whether it soars to $1,000 or drops to $100, you still bought it at the
price we fixed.  If you sell when silver stands at $5.00, you still sold and I still bought
at that price whether silver rockets to the moon or it gets so cheap they start
paying people to haul it off in trucks like sand.
In other words, when you make a contract with us, I am giving you my word, and you
are giving me your word, that we will faithfully complete the contract.  Just as when
you buy stocks or bonds, we cannot change or cancel the order once entered.
After you enter your order, you need to send us payment within forty-eight (48)
hours by personal check, United States Post Office (only) money order, or bank
wire.  If you send a check (whether cashier's check, bank check, bank money
order or your personal check) we will hold shipment for fourteen (14) days to allow
the check to clear.  Generally you will receive your order (shipped registered mail
or UPS) within  three to four weeks from order entry.
Against bank wires we ship immediately upon receipt.