The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 13 July a.d. 2011 Browse the commentary archive

Sorry, business takes me to East Tennessee tomorrow & I won't be back until Saturday, so I won't be sending commentaries tomorrow or Friday.

I seem to remember a point back in April as silver was peaking when it gained 8% in one day. Today it gained in one flat-footed leap 7.1% or 251.9c to close at 3814.8c. Gold added 1.5% or $23.30 to close at $1,585.20. Meanwhile, the dollar fell.

Dollar fell today to 75.159, down 65 basis points or 0.84%. That was a Birth Certificate sort of day, appearing to show one thing but pointing at another.

No doubt Bernancubus' Nice Government Men, together with the Euro NGM, have been sweating bullets & losing sleep trying to keep that dollar down & the Euro up. They work together, you know.

All that was necessary was to push the dollar thru 75.50 & the stop orders & nervous traders did the rest, carrying it down to 75.159, now trading at 74.968, down 84.1 basis points. Let's see -- European financial crisis, gold up 1.5%, euro sinking out of sight yesterday nearly through its 200 DMA, AND the dollar sinks. Sure, that makes sense. Yeah, that's SOME birth certificate.

More, the Bernancubus unlimbered Samson's best weapon today to talk the dollar down allowing how he'd supply more "stimulus" if needed.

I hope y'all have caught on, but I wonder when everybody else will stop paying attention to this wretched sideshow & dump dollars altogether as too big a mess to be borne.

Stocks were buoyed a bit by the Bernancubus-ism's rolling out of the Sybillic lips today, but it was nothing worthy of awe. Stocks' high today took them up 165 points, but they closed up only 44.73 points (Dow at 12,491.61). You may call that a lot of things, but "strong" ain't one of 'em.

Stocks -- the broken tooth in the Hall of Investor Dental Health.

Overnight gold backed off to $1,565, but had eased up to up to $1,575 by New York open. About 9:00 all the nay-sayers ran for cover, & gold shot steadily up to $,1587.7 at 11:15. Rest of the day rolled over a little. Comex closed $1,585.20, up $23.30. Probably the Bernancubus' statements helped drive gold higher.

Only a fool would stand in the way of a rally like this. When it tops it will begin to waver, to back & fill, but that ain't yet. Could easily close above $1,600 tomorrow, and hit $1,625 or more.

CAREFUL! Rapid rises tend to be spongy & turn around quickly. Keep reminding yourself that as gold rises, just to retain a philosophical outlook.

To turn down gold would have to close below $1,560. Look for the NGM to attack it tomorrow. They whacked the dollar today so are now free to turn their attention to gold & silver. Won't matter, unless some cure is found for the European financial crisis.

After gapping up yesterday to a new all-time high gold moved up to another new all-time high in euros, closing at E1,121.

As I guessed, silver poked its nose thru the 50 day moving average at 3616c & panicked all its enemies & short sellers. 251.9c gain in one day is a huge move, for silver or anything else. By 9:00 silver had already hit 3700c, then perhaps Bernancubus' remarks about his future monetary generosity kicked in and drove silver to a high of 3840c. Comex closed 3814.8c, but could drive thru 3850c tomorrow, which sets it up for another leap straight up to 4000c - 4100c.

Silver will move much higher.

Somebody told me the Bernancubus' said in his comments today that gold is not money. Poor ol' boy's been hanging out in them Ivory League colleges too long. If he pulled down the United States Code off his shelf and read Title 31 he would find that all sorts of gold coins are legal tender -- "money" -- under United States law. I reckon they don't teach them economists to read when they're playing in the Ivory League. Only a natural born fool from Tennessee would go to the trouble of pulling down the law book and reading the law. Economists are above that.

On 13 July 1931 the German Danabank failed, leading to closing all German banks until August 5. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Opponents of the concept "rich man's war/poor man's fight" began rioting on 13 July 1863. The Draft Riots lasted three days and brought more than a thousand casualties.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
13-Jul-11 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,585.20 23.30 1.5
Silver, $/oz 38.15 2.52 7.1
Gold/Silver Ratio 41.550 -2.284 -5.2
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0241 0.0013 5.5
Platinum 1,756.30 23.50 1.4
Palladium 777.60 12.55 1.6
S&P 500 1,317.72 4.08 0.3
Dow 12,491.61 44.73 0.4
Dow in GOLD $s 162.90 -1.82 -1.1
Dow in GOLD oz 7.88 -0.09 -1.1
Dow in SILVER oz 327.45 -21.90 -6.3
US Dollar Index 75.16 -0.65 -0.9
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SPOT GOLD: 1,583.70      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,619.33 1,633.33 1,633.33
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1/4 AE 0.25 403.84 419.68 1,678.72
1/10 AE 0.10 169.46 175.79 1,757.91
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,537.60 1,549.60 1,580.90
British sovereign 0.24 370.94 390.94 1,660.74
French 20 franc 0.19 295.68 300.68 1,610.48
Krugerrand 1.00 1,592.41 1,606.41 1,606.41
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,599.70 1,623.70 1,623.70
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 829.46 839.36 1,678.72
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 415.72 419.68 1,678.72
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 161.54 182.13 1,821.26
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,896.90 1,911.90 1,585.72
.9999 bar 1.00 1,589.24 1,600.24 1,600.24
SPOT SILVER: 38.20      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 31,000.00 34,000.00 44.44
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 31,000.00 34,000.00 44.44
90% silver coin bags 0.72 26,687.38 27,037.38 37.81
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 10,825.03 11,040.03 37.42
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 3,829.50 3,869.50 38.70
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 383.95 388.45 38.85
1 oz .999 round 1.00 38.40 39.45 39.45
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 39.45 41.35 41.35
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,756.30      
Plat. Am Eagle 1.00 1,756.30 1,856.30 1,856.30
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To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

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The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

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