For those who missed the correction email, I repeat here that yesterday's commentary omitted one critical element. It should have read, "If back earlier this year you swapped out of silver into gold AT ANY REALIZED GOLD/ SILVER RATIO OF 38:1 OR LOWER . . ." If your realized ratio was higher than 38:1, you can check with us about swapping now, but your realized gain in ounces would be less.

This recommendation hath but one purpose & cause: taking money off the table. Anytime you can realize a 37% profit, you ought to do it.

I apologize for the confusion. Most of the time I run around here like a cat with his tail on fire, so I'm doing good not to make more mistakes.

Markets offered no concrete resolution today, just hovering around tops of recent ranges. I keep wondering (unsophisticated, natural born durn'd fool that I am) whether anybody has noticed that the European bank solvency crisis still has not been fixed, not even by installing these latest two bank-owned fixer shills in Italy & Greece. Should that crisis come unglued, it will take the EU and the euro with it. I'm not predicting, just counting the possible costs.

STOCKS dithered, sinking as low as 11,993 by noon, then rising above unchanged to close at a measly 17.18 (0.48%) gain, 12,096.16. S&P500 showed a little more spunk, up 6.03 or 1.62%, but spunk without muscle is just feckless braggadocio.

Dow is building (end-October till now) an even-side triangle which gives little clue which way it will resolve. Course, I could be reading it wrong and that could be a kiss-o'-death rising wedge I see. Either way, the upside hope is both limited & quixotic, & the downside expectation as sure as misplacing your car keys when you're in a dead rush.

I reckon most everybody is as prejudiced against the sorry US dollar as I am, so none of us expect anything. That's just a perfect set-up for a bad surprise, and one reason I've kept on saying a dollar rally is likely, fundamentals notwithstanding.

Today the dollar rose 27.9 basis points (0.36%) to 77.843, building on yesterday's surge & shoving the dollar to the top of its five-day range. A push through 78.20 will send the bears loping for their dens. Dollar would have to close below 76.50 to dash my hopes of a rally.

Don't misunderstand. I'm not looking for a rally because the dollar is strong or well-managed. It's not. It's sorry as gully dirt, but right now its not AS sorry as the euro, & the crisis there is sending the tired, the scared, & the terrorized fleeing into the buck.

Yeah, buddy, that euro really shone today. Dropped 0.75% to 1.3532. Gapped down, in fact, never a good sign. If y'all are planning a European vacation, wait a while to buy your euros. You'll probably be able to buy 'em under 1.2000.

The yen continues to climb into the gap it left behind when the Nice Government Men whacked it at end-October. Today it surmounted its 20 dma (129.60) to close at 129.74. That's about where it closed yesterday, but the 20 dma is dropping. Will climb till the NGM hit it again. Predictably enough in our world of illusion, the yen is intrinsically even sorrier than the US dollar, as worthless as a three-legged mule, but all the deluded view it as a safe haven. Looking at the yen makes me remember that at least on gully dirt you can grow kudzu.

I wonder why platinum & palladium both are stalled in their uptrends. 'Tain't comforting.

Gold revealed almost nothing today, although it did rise $3.90 to close Comex at $1,781.70. Range was $1,785.38 to $1,7650.28, so I reckon that close qualifies as a successful defense of $1,775 support. The issue remains in doubt, & will only be clarified by (1) gold closing above $1,800 for two days, or (2) gold dropping below $1,775 - $1,750.

With every fiat currency in the world on the run, why would I question buying gold, & never mind the little downside risk? I don't know. Maybe I'm letting the best become the enemy of the good. This much is sure: if gold closes over $1,800 two days running, stop waiting and buy fistfuls.

Silver kept her cards close to her breast today. High came at 3479, low at 3370c. Comex silver gained 43.5c to end at 3444.8c. This keeps silver within the uptrend line, barely, and above the 3369c 20 dma. Whoa! But look up there at 3442c & 3670! That's the 50 dma and 200 dma. Silver speaks with forkéd tongue, & I'm not sure which fork to listen to.

Once again, we are left looking at a range, waiting for a breakout up or down. Below silver must hold 3380c, above it must clear 3480c. Till then, we are simply waiting.

On 15 November 1777 the Continental Congress adopted the Articles of Confederation, which despite all their bad press really weren't such a bad form of government. Of course, they didn't allow the central government to seize power, wage war on the states, tax, and generally poke its nose into everybody's business. Reckon that's what our centralizers and experts don't like about it?

On 15 November 1864 the genocide and war criminal William Sherman burned Atlanta for no reason greater than terrorism. But when war criminals win wars, they erect statues to them rather than hanging them.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

• Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
• NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
• NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
• NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
• What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
• One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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