I don't know what happened & can't find out yet, but my commentary for 17 November was not sent out or posted to the website (there was none for 16 November). Whenever they're not posted at ww.the-moneychanger.com you can also check at www.goldprice.org, where they are also posted. The week was not kind to the little things, or to anything else, except the US dollar index. Ever-volatile silver & palladium took the deepest wounds, but stocks didn't lag far behind. Never mind the two bank-owned shills who seized power in Greece & Italy, markets are not satisfied. That fear & uncertainty is churning all markets, & will until some real solution is brought forth. By the way, "real solution" includes not "haircuts" for the banks, but "eviscerations." A debt jubilee. Debt is so huge that it can't be paid without perpetual debt slavery. This crisis snowball is fast rolling down hill, & soon will speed out of control, I fear. Before I say anything, I want y'all to know I'm tearing the tops off the charts & reading out whatever they say, good or bad. If y'all don't like it, don't shoot the messenger. Stocks this week fell down out of an even-sided triangle at 11,950 & gives the Dow an initial target of 11,250, below the 50 day moving average (11,523 today). Now looks as if the Dow will NOT make any final push up after all. All this is a breakdown after a Jaws of Death has formed, a most reliable top formation. Bad vibes. Bad karma. Bad juju. Today the Dow gained 25.43 (measly 0.22%) to close at 11,796.16. S&P, on the other hand, dropped 0.48 (0.004%) to 1,215.65, while the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 both closed slightly lower. That argument signals bewilderment in the market, & bewildered markets don't rally, generally. Stocks -- somebody (not I) might be able to pick winners in the next 4 years, but there' won't be many. Most will be mauled by the bear. US DOLLAR INDEX dropped 20.1 basis points today (0.26%) to 78.081, but look, folks, it jumped in one week 117.5 basis points 1.5%. Money fleeing Europe is driving it, and will drive it. It is rallying, and could reach 83.15. The Japanese Nice Government Men will have to tame the rambunctious yen, & right soon. Without exports, Japan will become an island of unsalable parked cars. They've hit it twice since the earthquake, but every time it comes right back -- lots of scared money out there looking for a refuge. They must hit it again soon. Today at 129.98c/Y100 (Y76.93/$1). The world is so scared of the Euro that it has gapped down twice in the last two weeks & will continue to fall toward 1.2000. Closed today 1.3515, up 0.39%. Gold failed in its second try at $1,800. Reached for it on Monday, but fell back to $1,760 - $1,765 & traded sideways through Wednesday. Once it broke $1,740 on Thursday, gold tumbled all the way to $1,711. Can't interpret that as anything but a breakdown. This should be the second and final leg down we've been waiting for. How far will it run? Support remains at $1,705, & below that at $1,675. Gold caught this week at the 50 dma (1,715.80) but next week might reach $1,675. If that holds not, then look at $1,600, $1,536, & $1,475. Today gold gained $4.90 to close Comex at $1,724.70, a flat wee bounce after falling $54.00 yesterday. In view of the unsolved European crisis & the ripeness of this gold correction, I am ready to start buying by averaging down. Buy some at $1,705, $1,675, $1,605, etc. BECAUSE I DO NO KNOW WHERE THIS WILL START BUT I AM CONFIDENT GOLD REMAINS IN A BULL MARKET WITH FAR MORE UPSIDE. Whatever 10% or even 20% downside risk remains here is peanuts compared to the triple or quadruple upside. SILVER was taken to the same woodshed as gold. Once it broke 3350c on Thursday, silver never stopped until it hit 3088c. Today it rebounded, but not with anything more than a dead cat bounce to 3250c. To gainsay this breakdown, silver would have to close above 3250c then rapidly above 3400c. Down below several landing zones appear possible. 3000c is one, then 2850, and finally 2600c. Lower prices are possible, but not likely. I expect to see most of the metals' downside in the next two weeks, if not sooner. DON'T MISS THIS: Right now, when every timid heart, including your own, is trembling, audacity and a cool head will pay off. Now is the time to buy, not when all the silly media cheerleaders have discovered a strong upward trend and prices are running away to the upside. SWAPPERS should mark that my commentary yesterday contained an error. I meant to recommend you swap silver for GOLD, not vice versa. Ratio is rising, which means silver is growing cheaper against gold, & we always swap from the dear metal into the cheap. If you swapped silver for gold in the spring at any level lower than 42:1, you can swap gold for silver now and realize gains in silver ounces above 28.5%. Me, I would scoop those ounces off the table & into my lap. SWAPPERS who swapped higher than 42:1 keep on waiting for a 57.5:1 ratio, which may come soon. Delude not thyself, neither listen to siren voices blaring that the precious metals bull market has ended. It has not, and will run to yet greater heights in the next 3-10 years. On 18 November 1477 William Caslon produced the first mass-produced hand-held device in England. It was called a book. His was the first printed in England, with the catchy title "Dictes or Sayengis of the Philosophres." Look, he was a printer, not a speller. On 18 November 1883 the US and Canada adopted a system of standard time zones so that trains could be late uniformly all across the continent. On 18 November 1916 Douglas Haig, commander of the British Expeditionary Force, called off the Battle of the Somme, an offensive that had begun on 1 July 1916. Whoops! The French & British suffered 623,907 casualties (to the German's 465,000) before it occurred to Haig that something had probably gone wrong and he ought to call it off. We have a beautiful glowing red-orange fall sunset here this evening, better than fine wine. Y'all enjoy your weekend!
Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
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