The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 21 November a.d. 2011 Browse the commentary archive

We might as well have some fun today. None of us are getting out of here alive anyway.

On Friday with the Dow at 11,791 I said it had an initial (beginning the drop, just beginning) of 11,250. Today it logged half of that with a 248.85 drop, falling 2.11% and landing at 11,547.31. S&P500 lagged a tad, falling only 1.86% (22.67 points) to 1,192.98.

Today's dive takes the Dow below the 50 day moving average (11,533). Stop waiting for another rise toward 12,400, because it ain't coming.

Stocks: signal proof how good the yankee government is at managing the economy.

US DOLLAR INDEX today solidified its breakout Friday thru the descending trendline. Today it gained 19.5 basis points (0.25%) to close 78.256. Dollar need only remain above 78.10 to remain in the rally game. Higher dollar coming. Watch for it.

Japanese yen lost a minute 0.18% today to close at 129.96c/Y100 (Y76.95/$1). Where are those Nice Government Men when they're needed? Uppity yen needs chastising!

The Franken-currency, the euro, dropped 0.2% to 1.3497. Grind, grind, grind, it just keeps on grinding lower and lower toward its 1.2000 target.

Gold kept on dropping today, losing $46.40 to close Comex at $1,678.30. (Remember it lost $54 last Thursday.) Once it broke Thursday's & Friday's $1,712 low, it plunged to $1,667.71 very quickly.

That brings us to the first support at $1,675. Today's low cut thru the rising trend line, a leetle-bit, but closed above. If it breaks that line at $1,675, next strong support comes at $1,605, with some mushy support at $1,650. Below $1,605 lies $1,535 & $1,475.

Not predicting, just cataloging. Gold could stop at at any of those. You might also bear in mind that the 150 day moving average, now at $1,646.25, has frequently & regularly backstopped gold during this whole bull market. Certainly might catch there, too.

As I said, I'm not predicting. Right now, I'm averaging down, buying more gold whenever gold hits a new support level. I've been doing this too long, so I know how you pick your own pocket by holding out for "just a little lower price." Saying is, "Bulls get rich, bears get rich, & pigs get slaughtered." I have no ambition to become bacon.

Silver lost 130c on Comex and ended the day at 3111.3c. High came at 3219c, low at 3065c. Recall that Thursday's low was 3088c. That might be a double bottom developing, unless silver gainsays that suspicion tomorrow by trading below 3065c and staying there.

Below several possible turnaround targets present themselves. One is 3000c, home of the next to the last low. Another is 2843c, low before that. Then there is 2615c, the spike low in September.

All are possible, and my solution for myself is to buy more at each new support level. This tactic leaves me undisturbed & calm, because I expect silver & gold will roar back to triple or quadruple before this bull market ends, & I won't miss the low.

Today the gold/silver ratio stands at 53.907. Swappers who earlier in the spring swapped silver for gold at realized ratio of 41.46:1 or lower can swap gold for silver now and realize a 30% or greater gain in silver ounces. Remember that market proverb about bulls, bears, and pigs.

On 21 November 1953 the discovery of Piltdown Man in 1912 (yep, 41 years earlier) was revealed as a hoax. Hailed at discovery as the "missing link" that proved the truth of evolution, it was shown to be the skull of a 500 year old medieval man and the jaw bone of a chimpanzee. Shows, I reckon, the dangers of reconstructing a whole critter from a couple of bone scraps. Says something else about evolution, since all the missing links are still missing. Yet one should never underestimate the faith of the rationalistic and scientific-minded. The Piltdown explosion notwithstanding, their belief holds firm.

On 21 November 1694 the French writer & satirist Jean Francois Voltaire was born. Y'all may have read his satire on philosophy, Candide. Pretty funny, but in the end Voltaire was not a satirist or even a humorist, but a scoffer. The first two build, the scoffer only tears down. Voltaire & others of his ilk, living on the bounty of a rich and stable society, set the stage for the murderous machinery of the French Revolution. Their scoffing finally paid off in rivers of blood & waves of destruction.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
21-Nov-11 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,678.30 46.40 2.8
Silver, $/oz 31.13 -1.30 -4.0
Gold/Silver Ratio 53.907 3.591 7.1
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0186 -0.0013 -6.7
Platinum 1,552.40 -40.90 -2.6
Palladium 589.40 -16.70 -2.8
S&P 500 1,192.98 -22.67 -1.9
Dow 11,547.31 -248.85 -2.1
Dow in GOLD $s 142.23 -7.18 -4.8
Dow in GOLD oz 6.88 -0.35 -4.8
Dow in SILVER oz 370.90 7.19 2.0
US Dollar Index 78.08 -0.20 -0.3
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,681.90      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,720.58 1,736.58 1,736.58
1/2 AE 0.50 849.36 883.00 1,766.00
1/4 AE 0.25 428.88 445.70 1,782.81
1/10 AE 0.10 178.28 186.69 1,866.91
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,637.06 1,652.06 1,685.43
British sovereign 0.24 395.92 402.92 1,711.64
French 20 franc 0.19 314.01 321.01 1,719.39
Krugerrand 1.00 1,688.63 1,704.63 1,704.63
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,693.90 1,714.90 1,714.90
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 832.54 874.59 1,749.18
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 416.27 445.70 1,782.81
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 166.51 181.65 1,816.45
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 2,013.50 2,030.50 1,684.09
.9999 bar 1.00 1,687.79 1,698.79 1,698.79
SPOT SILVER: 31.67      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25,493.58 26,993.58 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 24,993.58 28,800.00 37.65
90% silver coin bags 0.72 22,072.05 22,472.05 31.43
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 8,752.65 9,052.65 30.69
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 3,192.00 3,252.00 32.52
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 316.70 322.70 32.27
1 oz .999 round 1.00 31.77 32.52 32.52
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 33.42 33.92 33.92
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,552.40      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Am Eagle 1.00 1,552.40 1,652.40 1,652.40
Home Questions & Answers Articles & Resources
The Moneychanger, P.O. Box 178, Westpoint, TN 38486
888-218-9226

Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

For complete details on how to buy from us or sell to us, please click here.