Y'all, I had to drive up to Sevierville yesterday, 5 hours away, & spent the night up there. Leaving the motel this morning, I made the mistake of picking up, then reading a USA Today. Right now, I am suffering from such severe brain poisoning that I doubt I can rub two vowels together & make sense, but I'm going to try. My brain will be spitting and puking for a week trying to get that offal out of its system.

US DOLLAR INDEX closed today at 79.053, down 25.2 basis points. The "down" isn't as important as the level, 79.00, important to morale. Once the dollar index bursts thru 79.84, it will blast off. Must not drop lower than 77.50. Moving higher, watch for it.

Euro looks as sick as ever. Closed unchanged today at 1.3313, but last two days has shown no more than a dead cat bounce. Might get a rally here to 1.3500, but soon, yes, soon will come 1.2000.

Japanese yen was indeed wounded by the Nice Government Men's last manipulation -- "Steering", they call it in German" -- and fell all last week. Today it rose a stingy 0.11% to 128.35c/Y100 (Y77.91/$1). BoJ bureaucrats aren't out of the woods yet. Yen needs to drop below 127.5c (Y78.43/$1) to give them any relief.

STOCKS jumped big time yesterday (Dow rose 291.23), but today improved little on that performance. Now the five day chart has a mess on it, with Monday at 11,550 - 11,450 looking something like a shoulder, a straight down drop for Wednesday and Friday with a low at 11,250, then a straight up rise yesterday. That might be something like an upside-down head & shoulders that yields a target of 11,850. Might.

Dow today closed up 32.62 (0.28%) at 11,555.63. S&P500 rose 2.65 (0.22% to 1,195.19).

Longer term chart shows only that the Dow bounced up off the lower Jaw of Death's bottom jaw, and has crossed above its 50 day moving average (11,540), which might turn momentum upward. Overall, this is a decaying market. Buzzards are circling. Combination of government interference and decades of mal-investment induced -- no, seduced -- by inflation simply refuse to let the economy heal itself. We are tempted to assign the motive here to wrecking -- deliberate sabotage by the parasites in charge -- but 'twould always be dangerous to pick that cause above plain vanilla stupidity born of ideology & lack of work experience. Nothing teaches you how an economy works like scouring toilets, flipping hamburgers, washing cars, or any of the understory jobs that keep the economy running. One wonders whether Bernard O'Bama or Ben the Bernancubus every have held a real job, where you had to work & produce or be fired -- and never mind all the other assorted goofs, miscreants, criminals, & ne'er-do-wells in Washington.

Can't y'all just hear my brain spluttering and spitting, trying to get the poison of USA Today & CNN out of its inwards? Yes, my wife turned on the TV in the room.

Sorry, I am not convinced that the rallies in silver and gold off Friday's bottom have any lasting power. Here's why: Yesterday the high-low range was $1,719.88 and $1,703.49 (for silver, 3231c & 3156c). Today the range was $1,719.83 & $1,703.47 (3216.5c & 3147c).

Gold today rose $2.60 to close at $1,713.40, while silver fell 30.8c (after rising 114.7c yesterday) to 3185.3c. A mixed close always gives me the nervous fantods.

Range for gold those two days was virtually identical, leading to the conclusion that a solid wall of resistance awaits at $1,720. Monday & Tuesday gold double-topped at that line. A failure to break thru tomorrow would be fatal to this fragile rally, and gold looks stuck, spinning wheels in the mud.

HOWEVER, look at a longer term chart, & you will see that last week's fall caught on the uptrend line from the $1,535 (September) low. Long as that holds (now about $1,700), gold's correction is passed, but if it breaks, nothing good follows. 50 DMA is 1702.11, so momentum is barely, temporarily up, but the 20 DMA stands at a lofty $1,742.60, a long ways above.

Silver's chart looks the same, only less so. Instead of an even double top Monday & Tuesday, silver topped higher on Monday. Still, the boundaries are plain. Top of the range is 3231, bottom at 3156c. Break up or down thru those levels will carry silver further in the same direction. If it breaks upward, it would climb to 3340c.

So far in this latest decline, the longer term chart alloweth me to say nothing much. Looks like it has further to fall, but a rise above 3400c would change that.

I have no idea when, but sometime soon, probably before year end, y'all will get a spectacular chance to buy silver.

The gold/silver ratio rose from 53.195 yesterday to 53.791 today. This does not touch the high (56.56) of the correction since September (rising, for the ratio, remember, when silver & gold are falling) but it is pushing toward it. That implies more work downside for both metals, especially silver.

On 29 November 1967 US Secretary of Defense Robert STRANGE McNamara, after embroiling the US in Viet Nam with his dy-no-mite strategy, announced he was leaving his post to become president of the World Bank. Somehow, it seems like a fitting move.

On 29 November 1963 Lyndon "Landslide" appointed the Warren Commission to cover up -- WHOA! Whoops! Strike that! Make that "investigate" -- the John F. Kennedy assassination. Then after they investigated it, he had the records sealed for 75 years, like every statesman who wants sunshine on the affairs of state.

On 18 November 1864 at the Battle of Spring Hill, Tennessee, about 45 minutes up the road, Gen'l. John Bell Hood allowed Union Gen'l. Schofield to slip between his fingers. I don't want to talk about it.

On 18 November 1864 militia led by Col. John Chivington at Sand Creek killed at least 400 peaceful Cheyenne & Arapaho Indians who had surrendered and been given permission to camp.

I'm warning all y'all now, Christmas will arrive before you are ready for it. If you want to give somebody an extraordinary gift, here are three companies that produce timeless, mouth-watering Southern country hams, bacon, & sausage. All are excellent, all just a little different. I have to give y'all all three names, because I don't know which one's my favourite, other than the one I'm eating at the time:

Rice's Country Hams, Mt. Juliet, Tennessee, www.ricescountryhams.com.

Smith Farms, Cullman, Alabama, www.smithfarms.net/, (256) 737-0505 (I can't get their website to work)

Harper's Country Hams, Clinton, Kentucky, www.hamtastic.com.

Shoot, y'all might want to give yourself a gift!

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

• Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
• NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
• NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
• NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
• What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
• One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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