Big news today was the Dow poking its head through 12,600 to close at 12,623.98, up 45.03 or 0.36%. Likewise the S&P500 rose 6.64 (0.5%) to close at 1,314.50.

A reader pointed out to me yesterday that I might be missing an upside down head & shoulders in stocks, & he may be right. However, if stocks rally above this level, it will be a trap for bulls that will collapse to their grief within short months.

Other big news came from the euro, which made good its escape thru the downtrend line and cleared the 20 day moving average (1.2898) today to close at 1.2965, up 0.84%. Assuming it closes above the downtrend line tomorrow, the euro will have a minimum target of 1.325. This doesn't represent any underlying strength or reform, only a technical reaction to the long fall from 142.47 in October. Euro still stinks worse even than the US dollar.

The US dollar index fell 56 basis points (0.72%). Recall that 60% of the dollar index' value is determined by the euro. Now trading at 80.05, barely above 80. That certainly cracks the uptrend line, & leads to conclusion the dollar will fall at least to its 50 DMA at 79.32.

Japanese Yen lost 0.4% to 129.71c/Y100 (Y77.10/US$1). 'Twas a nasty fall, punching through but not staying below the 20 DMA (129.46). 50 DMA isn't far away at 129.13. Should the Yen close blow that, well, it's headed for 128 again.

Both silver & gold performed badly today. Gold fell $5.40 to close comes at $1,654.10. That wasn't what left the burr under my saddle, though. It was a new high for the move at $1,669.92 followed by a lower close. That's the first part of a key reversal, & will be confirmed if gold closes lower again tomorrow.

An ominous double top (at $1,670) dominates the 5-day gold chart. A break through $1,645 puts gold on a slide back toward toward $1,605.

Silver lost only 3.2c, but again posted a possible key reversal. Reached a new high for the move, 3087c, but then closed lower at 3048.2. 5-day chart looks worse, with a formation that is not quite but almost an island reversal. From here silver would have to hold on at 3040c to continue rising. Otherwise, we're looking at another trip to 2980c.

I've been thinking about the Dow in Gold Dollars & the Dow in Silver Ounces. Both have been rising , silver since its April highs and gold since gold's August high. (Remember, the DiG$ or DiSoz RISE when silver or gold are outrunning stocks and fall when metals are lagging stocks).

Dig's looks like it has topped, but is above the 200 DMA & might still run to G$170 (8.224 oz of gold). DiSoz must turn around soon from its present 415 oz or will climb toward resistance at 500 oz.

What does this imply? That stocks may be about to outperform silver & gold for a while.

Gold's turning back at $1,670 (assuming it follows through downward tomorrow) also sets both metals up for a test of the December lows.

Get ready to buy.

On 19 January 1919 a huge (50 ft. tall, 90 ft. wide with 2.3 million gallons) molasses tank burst in Boston, unleashing a tidal wave of molasses from 8 to 15 feet high travelling at 35 mph! The wave broke girders of the elevated railway, swept some buildings off their foundations and crushed others Several blocks were two to three feet deep in molasses.

150 people were injured & 21 killed, crushed or drowned by molasses. Horses were crushed. It was a terrible tragedy, but tour guides sometimes call it "The Boston Molassacre."

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

• Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
• NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
• NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
• NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
• What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
• One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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