Please forgive us for the mistaken transmission yesterday. We've been working on a website update since August, & finally tried it out yesterday. We found the glitch -- it came about 2/3 of the way through sending out the daily commentary. I've asked the webmaster to re-send it, & today's sending ought to work flawlessly. (We hope.).

US dollar today gained a massive, spectacular 2.3 basis points (0.03%) to end at 79.806. It skidded to a stop just above the 50 DMA (79.52).

High today reached 80.184, low skidded to 79.643. Without closing higher than 80.20, the dollar is merely trolling for fools gullible enough to buy it on the way down.

Of course, if the buck hangs around above 79.50 for a few days, I might change my mind.

Scabby euro rose 0.09% today to 1.3036, not much changed from yesterday, but still rallying. Still headed for 1.3200 at least.

Yen, on the other hand, fell off a cliff today. Dropped 0.9% to 128.71c/Y100 (Y77.69/US$1), leaving behind a huge gap and punching through its 20 DMA (129.65) & 50 DMA (129.19). Support there is none before 128c, or the 200 DMA at 127.37c. Looks like the Nice Government Men in Japan woke up today and decided to lower the yen.

Stock indices shrugged off their confusion today and all decided to drop together. Dow lost 33.07 (0.26%) to 12,675.75. S&P500 gave back 1.35 to 0.1%. Charts aren't quite the same.

S&P500 has bumped into overhead resistance from last spring's highs and stopped cold. Dow punched through slightly, reached 12,764, and has traded back to the line for -- a failure and fall back, or a final kiss good-bye? Not clear yet, but stocks don't have much gas left. Dow won't reach 12,870, S&P500 shouldn't reach 1,360.

Gold bounced off that barrier at $1,680 yesterday and gave back $13.80 today, closing at $1,664.20. Gold can drop back to $1,658 - $1,656 & remain in an uptrend. So far, today's action classifies as no more than a correction within an uptrend.

Silver backed off 30.2c to close Comex at 3193.1c. Silver dipped its toe below 3200c to 3184c, but held there rock solid. And so it must do tomorrow to avoid a painful correction, down to 3080c, a dollar lower.

You always have to take care that you are not "talking your position," looking at a chart & seeing only what you want to see & ignoring the rest. Still, I believe that pattern on silver's chart is a continuation pattern, very tight, & will break out upside.

So (as my friend R. asked me today) why not talk about the gold/silver ratio? Because I am still holding out for 57.5 to swap, and believe we will yet see that. Silver & gold have most likely made their bottoms, but first time silver makes a correction, it will suffer much more than gold will, & that (I hope) will give us that push.

Think about something else. I am still smarting by swapping out of silver into gold too early last year. I don't want to jump too early on the swap back, & I know from previous years that the ratio can post several similar highs before it turns down for good.

Right, that's risky, but for right now I believe it's a risk worth taking.

On 24 January 1568 the Spanish (Hapsburg) Duke of Alva declared William of Orange an outlaw. William was leading the independence movement that after a long and bloody war and William's assassination, won the Dutch their freedom and won the Spanish la leyenda negra, the black legend about Spanish cruelty.

On 24 January 1848 James W. Marshall discovered a gold nugget at Sutter's Mill in northern California, the discovery that set off the Gold Rush. Discoveries of gold in California, Australia, and later South Africa led to a CHEAPENING of gold against silver, & the price of silver in gold rose steadily from 1848 until 1873, when silver was corruptly demonetized first in the US ("Crime of '73") and then in the new German Reich. Contrary to the propaganda, it was NOT new silver discoveries, like the Comstock Lode, that led to silver's cheapening against gold or its demonetization. That was all politics, & silver was gaining value from 1848 forward, never trading below the $1.2929 statutory value from 1848 to 1873, and rising at some points to $1.35 (4.4% over statutory price). No, ultimately driving silver out of the monetary system was a project of special interests who planned to drive out first, silver, & then gold, & so create their own money out of thin air. So far, they've won, and think what a tragedy it would have been if the banks had lost. Why, how would states have raised the money to fight all those world wars without central banks & fiat money? Gee, they couldn't have, so they would have been forced to make peace. It would have been a historical tragedy, wouldn't it?

MILESTONES OF AMERICAN CULTURE:

On 24 January 1922 Christian K. Nelson of Iowa patented the Eskimo Pie, a vanilla ice cream bar on a stick, covered by a chocolate skin. Why he was eating ice cream in Iowa in the winter remains unknown.

On 24 January 1935 beer was first sold in cans by the Kreuger Brewing Company in Virginia.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

• Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
• NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
• NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
• NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
• What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
• One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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