The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 7 February a.d. 2012 Browse the commentary archive

Y'all don't forget: A Greek Debt Deal is Near.

With astonishing candor Fed Head Ben Bernancubus told the senate budget committee today that the much-touted 8.3% unemployment rate from January UNDERstates weakness in the US labor market.

Something's up. Bernancubus is sounding almost rational -- it's a trick. Or he is sandbagging because he awaits even worse news still.

Silver & gold found nothing but support in Bernancubus' remarks, as everything he said implied he will depreciate the dollar much more through inflation.

At least, the US dollar index took it that way since it sank a chunky 55.3 basis points (0.71%) to 78.516. That's the bottom of the last 30 days' range. The fall through 78.50 will only confirm the down-ness of a trend already turned down, and 'twill accelerate it.

Yeah, buddy! That Greek debt deal is just roaring down the tracks. The euro market thinks so, I reckon, because the euro rose today to 1.3258, up 0.97% & above 1.3200 resistance. Still, if I owned euros (and I don't, and won't, unless I have to travel there) & the deal did go thru, I would sell them on the NEWS tomorrow that a deal has been struck. Forget not the proverb, "Buy the rumor, sell the news."

Appears that part of what's been driving up the yen was money looking for a refuge for the euro, since the yen fell 0.31% today to 130.25c/Y100 (Y76.78/US$1). Yen pierced but did not close below its 20 DMA (130.16). The yen has a fine future at a lower level.

STOCKS struggle yet with that 12,875 resistance. Dow gained 43.63 (0.34%) to 12,888.76 and the S&P500 rose 2.96 (0.22%) to 1,347.29

Are stocks topping or consolidating? Well, they feed off inflation & the Bernancubus today promised more of that -- although stocks feeding off inflation is like the eucalyptus-obligate koala bear eating chocolate cake & expecting to thrive. End thereof will be painful & messy, & fraught with indigestion & enthusiastic puking.

If stocks penetrate that 12,875, say, by 2% (13,132.5) they will stretch their legs & run to the 2007 top. I don't expect that, but do expect their strength will wane & vanish by end of the first quarter, second at latest.

Gold rolled back all its losses since last Friday, & banged on $1,750 resistance as well with a $1,749.71 high. Rose $23.60 to $1,746.40 on Comex.

This is good and not so good. It leaves yesterday looking like a bottom at $1,710 (today's low), & a leap up off that bottom through two resistance levels.

Think of it this way. Gold bottomed on 29 December at 1523.90 (intraday), and commenced an uptrend. If you draw an uptrend line from 29 December across the bottoms, you'll see that today's low merely touched the uptrend line, nothing more. Trend remains intact. More, gold made a new low for the move today, then closed higher than the day before -- first half of a key reversal. If gold closes higher tomorrow, it was a key reversal & gold has resumed climbing.

All that also almost works for silver, but not quite. Silver rose 44.3c today to shut the doors at Comex on 3416.5c. But silver did penetrate its uptrend line, by a little. Given that silver often does that, then refuses to follow through, we can chalk that up to silver's greater volatility.

Silver has reached the threshold of its crucial 300 day moving average (3453c). Clear that hurdle, & silver will run for the finish line. Momentum already points up, with silver above its 50 and 20 DMAs.

Turning all that the other way round, a failure at 3450c would hurt silver badly, & send it back toward 3100c to build a broader, firmer foundation. Once again, silver's line in the sand is 3300c.

Last three days have been merely a very short-term correction for metals. Seems they want to climb higher. Don't get caught standing in their way.

On 7 February 1812 an earthquake of 8.2 magnitude occurred at New Madrid, Missouri. The New Madrid Fault is the largest in the US between the east & west coasts. Earthquakes actually began in December 1811 & continued into February. At one point the Mississippi River actually ran backward for a day, & the river's course was changed, leaving behind a cutoff that became Reelfoot Lake. The alluvial soil of the Delta in Arkansas & Tennessee & Missouri liquefied. The quakes were felt as far away as New York & Boston (Massachusetts, not Arkansas), ringing church bells.

The New Madrid Fault is still there, waiting to quake again. SPECIAL OFFER Argentinos & Uruguayan 5 pesos & US 1921 Morgans.

The gold ARGENTINO was minted from 1881-1887 in 90% gold (same as the US standard) at a fine gold content of 0.2334 troy ounce. These are simply bullion coins with some circulation, for $417.80 each. With spot gold

With spot gold at $1,746.40, that's a tee-tiny 2.5% premium over gold content. They don't carry a wide buy/sell spread, since wholesale buy for them today is 98.9% of melt.

I will sell minimum lots of Ten (10) coins for $4,178.00 + 25 shipping per lot (total $4,203.00). I have only One hundred (100) coins, so no re-orders at this price.

The gold URUGUAYAN 5 PESOS was minted in 1930 at 91.7% pure gold containing 0.2501 troy ounce of fine gold.

Minimum lot is Five (5) coins at $447.70 each (2.5% premium), or $2,238.50 plus $25 shipping per lot total $2,263.50/lot). I have only Twenty-five (25) coins, so no re-orders at this price.

I also have One (1) only lot of One hundred Two (102) U.S. 1921 MORGAN SILVER DOLLARS, some About Uncirculated (AU) but mostly Uncirculated (BU), $35.55 each or $3,626.10 plus $25 shipping ($3,651.10 total). Absolutely no re-orders at this price.

Special Conditions:

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will enter orders based on the time I receive your e-mail.

We will not take orders for less than the minimums shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed. If you want faster shipping, please send a wire.

Spot gold basis for all prices above is $1,746.40 ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to . No phone orders, please.

Your email must include your complete name, address, & phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

Repeat, you must include your complete name, address, and phone number. Our clairvoyant quit without warning last week and I stumbled & dropped my crystal ball, smashing it to pieces, so we can no longer read your mind.

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3. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail.

4. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

5. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.

6. We allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship. If your hurry is greater than that, you can send a bank wire. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
7-Feb-12 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,746.40 23.60 1.37%
Silver, $/oz 34.17 0.44 1.31%
Gold/Silver Ratio 51.117 0.028 0.06%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0196 -0.0000 -0.06%
Platinum 1,650.30 28.80 1.78%
Palladium 707.45 2.45 0.35%
S&P 500 1,347.29 2.96 0.22%
Dow 12,888.76 43.63 0.34%
Dow in GOLD $s 152.56 -1.55 -1.01%
Dow in GOLD oz 7.38 -0.08 -1.01%
Dow in SILVER oz 377.25 -3.66 -0.96%
US Dollar Index 78.52 -0.55 -0.70%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,748.00      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,788.20 1,803.20 1,803.20
1/2 AE 0.50 882.74 917.70 1,835.40
1/4 AE 0.25 445.74 463.22 1,852.88
1/10 AE 0.10 185.29 194.03 1,940.28
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,701.40 1,715.40 1,750.05
British sovereign 0.24 411.48 418.48 1,777.74
French 20 franc 0.19 326.35 333.35 1,785.49
Krugerrand 1.00 1,761.98 1,776.98 1,776.98
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,760.00 1,781.00 1,781.00
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 865.26 908.96 1,817.92
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 432.63 463.22 1,852.88
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 173.05 188.78 1,887.84
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 2,090.53 2,106.53 1,747.14
.9999 bar 1.00 1,754.12 1,765.12 1,765.12
SPOT SILVER: 34.27      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 27,504.42 27,500.00 35.95
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 26,504.42 26,500.00 34.64
90% silver coin bags 0.72 23,966.80 24,316.80 34.01
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 9,637.65 9,812.65 33.26
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 3,452.00 3,492.00 34.92
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 345.20 349.20 34.92
1 oz .999 round 1.00 34.52 35.12 35.12
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 36.02 36.62 36.62
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,650.30      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,675.30 1,718.30 1,718.30
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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