Well, once again today, a Greek Debt Deal is Near. Near, as in the comparative form of "nigh", meaning that it is more nigh that it was a week ago. Or, at least a default draws nigher.

Last on the euro is 1.3263, up 0.03% although no Debt Deal has yet been inked. 'Twould be a nasty awakening for all those folks who have gone long euros should the Greeks balk & the deal fall through.

US dollar index is holding its breath today, too. Rose a piddling 3.7 basis points (0.05%) to 78.613. Interesting that the dollar index still mulishly evades a decisive & plainspoken break through 78.50.

The yen, on the other ocean, had no problem sinking through its 20 DMA (130.15c) to 129.9c/Y100 (Y76.98/US$1), down 0.29%. Psychologically any close through a round number like "130c" smashes investor morale. Bottom of this range enters about 129.35c, the 50 DMA. Below that the range's bottom boundary crosses about 127.75c.

Stocks were displeased that the Greek Debt Deal drew no nearer, as they had been waiting on it all day. Dow ended up 5.75 points after spending most of the day lower, sort of like saying, "Well, look on the bright side -- at least your submarine didn't SINK." Dow closed at 12,883.95. S&P500 rose 2.91 to close at 1,349.96.

Pretty amazing that little Greece could discombobulate mighty Wall Street. Does that hide in its bosom a message?

I got hooked yesterday like a starving large mouth bass jumping after a Jitterbug. Almost took it hook, line, & sinker, but remembered myself enough to insist that a Key Reversal requires a higher close next day, a sight not seen today in gold or silver.

Both metals fell back from the top of their recent trading ranges, gainsaying all yesterday's showy performance. Gold fell $17.10 to a Comex close at $1,729.30 & silver tumbled right along with it, losing 49.2% to settle at 3367.3c.

Gold's jaws were slapped by a $1,751.50 high. It wasn't hit hard enough to fall below $1,725, but today argues that it will sink further. A close below $1,710 will drag gold much further down, & it remains plumb on its uptrend line, a precarious perch.

Silver fell back to the 3360c support/resistance, leaving behind a pattern that looks awfully top-heavy and that has broken its uptrend line. Silver closed at 3367.3, near the day's low at 3362c.

If silver could punch through that 300 day moving average overhead at 3453c, then it could fly. However, the 300 DMA seems to be winning this wrestling match. A close below 3290c will confirm that silver is being thrown.

Got to be honest here, if a bit anxious. Silver has already made two bottoms at 2615c, and triple bottoms don't exist. Therefore twould ease anxiety if silver dropped no further than its 50 DMA (3104c), then resumed climbing.

But we watch & wait for the market to tell us -- we don't tell the market. Surprises like today's, a sharp drop after a muscular climb, remind us of humility, and that markets can do whatever they want. Hence it is NOT unthinkable that silver might turn tomorrow & break upwards through the 300 DMA. I reckon a failure in the Great Greek Debt Deal might send money scurrying into gold unexpectedly. Given the euro's strength today, markets clearly expect the Greeks to buy the deal. If they do, it will be time to sell the euro again, because It Won't Get Any Better Than That for a while.

On 8 February 1904 began the Russo-Japanese War. Japan launched a surprise attack on the Russian naval base at Port Arthur after Russia had rejected a Japanese plan to divide Manchuria and Korea into spheres of influence. The war surprise the world by exposing the weakness of the Tsarist government & the strength & determination of the Japanese, and their surprise attack. In Russia the unpopular war sparked a Revolution. All these events offered a foretaste of 1917 and 1941.

MILESTONES OF AMERICAN CULTURE: On 8 February 1985 "The Dukes of Hazzard" ended its 6-1/2 year run on CBS Television. My sons were heartbroken. Others never noticed, I among them.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

• Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
• NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
• NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
• NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
• What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
• One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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