The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 15 March a.d. 2012 Browse the commentary archive

Sometimes I wonder whether y'all are paying attention or not. Yesterday I wrote about the Three Stooges the Republicans are fronting as presidential candidates & their inability to beat Barack Obama. Some of y'all castigated me for not mentioning Ron Paul, some of you drew your breath in horrified as if I were supporting Obama.

No. 1, know that it makes not a whit of difference who is elected, neither Obama nor the Three Stooges nor Jack Frost. Whoever it is will not have enough principle to raise a pimple on a hog if he were smallpox. The Establishment, who picks the president, doesn't pick 'em for principle, but for following orders. Whoever is elected, Democrat or Republican, will continue the same policies that are enslaving all of us and feeding our lifeblood to the Establishment, just as Obama continued the Bush policies who continued the Clinton policies who continued the Bush policies who continued the Reagan policies all the way back to Franklin Roosevelt. Whoever is elected will do the Establishment's bidding, or he will meet with a "Lone Assassin keeping a diary." Presidents are like judges, they don't pick 'em for character.

No. 2, I share most of Ron Paul's principles, but perhaps y'all have not noticed that he is the Invisible Candidate. Why do you think that is? Because the media can't see him? Cataracts? Nope, it's because they know who signs their paychecks, and they cover what the signer wants covered. Assume the impossible, that Ron Paul is elected. What then? Assuming, too, he doesn't meet that convenient "Lone Assassin keeping a diary," how much could he change? How hard could he push against the entrenched bureaucracy, the defense establishment, & an economy addicted to defense spending, government money, borrowing, and inflation?

Sure, go ahead, get angry at me because I'm just a fool telling you the obvious truth. Presidential politics is one big red herring intended to make you believe that you can really make a difference, but at that level you are no more than a pawn, utterly powerless. You make yourself the natural prey and dupe of these foul creatures.

Where do you have power and influence then? In your family. In your neighborhood. In your community. In your town or city. In your county. In your state. There you have real power and influence, because those people know and love and trust you. Truth is, rather than do the hard work of fixing things in your own family and neighborhood & state, y'all want to run off flattering yourselves that you're changing the nation with presidential politics. Hogwash.

Last night a reader sent me a quotation that sums it all up, from Buckminster Fuller. "You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete."

Am I become your enemy because I tell you the truth?

Today's markets brought no excitement or changes much. Silver & gold bounced, dollar eased off, stocks crept up. No gamechanger today.

S&P500 did make a coup for morale by closing above the round number 1,400, up 8.06 (0.98%) to 1,402.60 Dow added 8.32 (0.6%) to 13,252.76.

Stocks -- let 'em roar, let 'em roll -- stocks may rejoice in the evening, but the hangover cometh in the morning.

Dollar Index is still backing off its high yesterday about 80.70. 'Twas 80.248, down 31.7 basis points (0.41%) when I looked, but made a low at 80.038. Dollar should hold 80 - 79.95, where support will be stout. Euro rose same 0.41% the dollar index fell, to 1.3082. Must cross above 1.3120 before it has a future upside. What a chart! Looks like a drunk driver using both feet on brakes & accelerator. Yen broke 120c today to close at 119.7c/Y100 (Y83.54/US$1). A bottom? Oversold as popcorn at the movie theater, but won't stop dropping. Can it go to zero?

One meditates on the world fiat currency set-up & one must conclude that the central bankers all work together, as much as they all eat supper together once a month at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel. One pictures them sweating bullets & trying to restrain their bodily functions as the Euro crisis unfolded, & one can imagine that they would have sold their mothers as eternal streetsweepers just to get each other's co-operation. One then wonders if events unfolding in the currency markets are exactly what they planned. One wonders, that's all. One doesn't wonder what they do about gold: they fight it constantly, but with only occasional bouts of success.

Our favorite precious metals, silver & gold, both bounced today, gold 1%, silver 1.7%. While this is a move in the right direction & promises better things, it doesn't rise to gainsaying the downtrend's control.

Yesterday and today gold made what MIGHT be a rounding bottom, then put an lip on the bowl by rising to $1,665.60. Great, but that was Tuesday's low, so without conquering that, today's rise is merely noise & equivocation. Gold close up $16.60 at $1,659.10.

I spoke yesterday of watching for the right & final shoulder of upside down head and shoulders patterns on both charts. Gold's right shoulder should come anywhere around $1,600, a little higher, but it could dip lower. In silver that shoulder could find its low from 3100c to 3000c.

Of course, no cosmic law prevents their finishing those shoulders a little higher, either.

Silver chart offers a reflection of gold's, with different numbers. Silver's low yesterday fell a little under 3150c, but today it gained 54.6c to close Comex at 3269.3.

Barrier to silver's upward course is resistance at 3285/3275c. A fall through 3150c support will bring a bottom speedily. Silver did reach up to touch its 50 day moving average today (3292c).

On 15 March 1781 General Nathanael Greene with 4,400 Continental & militia troops whipped General Cornwallis 1,900 British & Tories at the Battle of Guilford Courthouse, North Carolina. Following up on the American victory at the Cowpens in South Carolina, Greene played cat & mouse with Cornwallis, and escaped to safety over the flooded Dan River in Virginia. Greene then returned and caught Cornwallis & defeated him, driving him out of the Carolinas into Virginia on his road to Yorktown.

Hillsborough, where the battle took place, was before the war a hotbed of the "Regulator" rebellion (1771) against colonial government and seizure of their property to pay taxes, plus assorted other corruptions. When I found out that one of my ancestors, Daniel Baldridge, was a Regulator, that explained a lot. I am a GENETIC tax protestor. I can't help it. It's a disease.

They hanged six of the Regulators, but the rest bided their time. When the Revolution came, they joined the American forces. Patience is crucial for a tax protestor.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
15-May-12 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,659.10 16.60 1.01%
Silver, $/oz 32.69 0.55 1.70%
Gold/Silver Ratio 50.748 -0.346 -0.68%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0197 0.0001 0.68%
Platinum 1,684.50 20.20 1.21%
Palladium 705.05 11.10 1.60%
S&P 500 1,402.60 8.06 0.58%
Dow 13,252.76 8.32 0.06%
Dow in GOLD $s 165.12 -1.55 -0.93%
Dow in GOLD oz 7.99 -0.07 -0.93%
Dow in SILVER oz 405.37 -6.63 -1.61%
US Dollar Index 80.25 0.32 0.40%
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GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,701.43 1,717.43 1,717.43
1/2 AE 0.50 836.63 869.77 1,739.54
1/4 AE 0.25 422.46 439.03 1,756.10
1/10 AE 0.10 175.61 183.89 1,838.94
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,612.53 1,627.53 1,660.41
British sovereign 0.24 389.99 396.99 1,686.44
French 20 franc 0.19 309.31 316.31 1,694.19
Krugerrand 1.00 1,668.30 1,684.30 1,684.30
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,668.70 1,689.70 1,689.70
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 820.07 861.48 1,722.97
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 410.03 439.03 1,756.10
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 164.01 178.92 1,789.24
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,981.34 1,998.34 1,657.41
.9999 bar 1.00 1,662.50 1,673.50 1,673.50
SPOT SILVER: 32.44      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 26,089.10 27,500.00 35.95
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 25,089.10 26,500.00 34.64
90% silver coin bags 0.72 22,765.60 23,115.60 32.33
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 9,097.80 9,272.80 31.43
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 3,269.00 3,309.00 33.09
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 326.90 330.90 33.09
1 oz .999 round 1.00 32.69 33.29 33.29
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 34.19 34.79 34.79
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,684.50      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,709.50 1,752.50 1,752.50
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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