My dear wife Susan was feeling pretty punk last night, but this morning she was dancing around & laughing like a little girl. With the lens replaced in only one eye due to a cataract, she can see! She has worn glasses since she was 8, & she's tickled pink. Thanks for your prayers.

For two days the dollar index has been vibrating up to down in a flat range from 79.80. Gained 26 basis points today & is now at 79.619. One has the feeling all interest in this market has died. Odd, since the United States seems bent on provoking Iran & through it another world war.

Euro looked a little flakey today, second day it has shown itself not equal to crossing above its 20 day moving average. Closed at $1.3211, down 0.11%, but really just dead in the water.

The yen today posted the first leg of a key reversal by breaking into new low territory but closing higher than yesterday. A close above today's 119.97c (Y83.35/US$1) tomorrow will complete that key reversal & turn the yen firmly up.

Stocks today rounded & fell further from that top they've been drawing. SAP fell 2.62 (0.19%) to 1,402.90 while the Dow fell 45.57 (0.36%) to close at 13,124.62. Y'all don't get too disappointed when it falls, because it will be only the first in a very long series of disappointments

Wait! I'd better stop saying such things. I am liable to get a visit from the Nice Government Men in the NOTSUA -- National Office to Suppress Un-American Activities.

Nothing fruitful took place in silver & gold today. True, they rose a little, but not enough to alter the downtrend. Gold rose 3.30 to $1,650 and silver rose 39.4c to 3219.9c.

The gold/silver ratio gives us a feeling of where we are and where we are headed. It keeps see-sawing upwards. Oh, it fell today from 51.775 to 51.244, but three days ago its was at 50.626.

Gold reached a little higher today at 1661.65 than yesterday's high at $1,657.80. Low came a little higher, too, at $1,647.08 against $1,641.90. Never mind, it's still range-bound trading. Must break out upside through $1,670, or down at at $1,640. Till then, range-bound trading is just noise. Meanwhile, gold remains below its 50 DMA ($1,705.43), 150 DMA ($1,711.55), & 200 DMA ($1,681.82). Can't argue that momentum points down.

On the longer term silver chart in the last six days silver has established a double bottom at 3162c - 3175c. To argue that will hold, I would point to the pattern of the correction since the February high, which has a down A-B-C completed look to it. But in spite of that, silver remains rangebound. Either it falls through 3180c to drop lower, or it rises above 3240c for higher prices. Meantime, we're just watching.

Abide patiently. Higher prices are coming once this correction ends.

On 21 March 1844 failed to occur the first end of the world prophesied by William Miller. Undeterred, he changed the date to 18 April 1844, but that day slipped by into 19 April, too. When 22 October, the next day announced for the world's end, followers began deserting. When he died on 20 December 1849, he was still convinced the end was near. Strange as it seems, people are still making these predictions today. Oddly enough, a lot of them don't believe anything else "religious" at all, but for some reason these irreligious folks are convinced that the Mayans got it right and predicted the world's end in 2012. I would like to go out on a limb here and predict that the Mayans were wrong and that the world will not end in 2012. It's a big chance, I know, but I'll take it.

After my story yesterday about Thomas Edison travelling around the country putting on shows & electrocuting cats to demonstrate how dangerous AC current was compared to DC, a reader wrote and asked me why he only electrocuted cats. As it happens, I know do the answer to that: armadillos were not available in sufficient quantities.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

• Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
• NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
• NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
• NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
• What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
• One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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