The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 26 March a.d. 2012 Browse the commentary archive

The comrades on the supreme court, known affectionately here as "The Supremes," are hearing a gang of lawsuits on Obamacare. Let me cut to the bone for you right here: no way congress can "mandate" you buy life insurance, a hamburger, a Chevrolet, or anything else, The Supremes notwithstanding.

Listen here: if you have to sign something to participate, they can't mandate it.

Think about it: You murder somebody with a meat ax. The police come to arrest you. At any point in the proceeding, will anybody present you with a contract proving you signed promising that you will not kill anybody with a meat ax? Nope.

It is therefore MANDATORY that you not kill people with a meat ax.

However, to buy the "mandated" insurance, you will have to sign a contract. If government can make you sign anything, then you are not free.

Same argument applies to social security: did you have to SIGN something, something called an "application," before you got a social security number? What would have happened had you NOT signed? Would they have given you a number anyway?

Like I said, the yankee government can NOT make you buy insurance, medical or otherwise.

TODAY gave us another example of how the Fed destabilizes markets. The Bernancubus made statements the market interpreted as soft on inflation. That broke the dollar's back & sent stocks jumping high, and boosted silver & gold. The Bernancubus is the same old drunk driver, slamming on the brakes, then pushing the gas pedal to the floor. Here's the irony so bitter it makes you want to spit: they claim that a central bank stabilizes markets.

I will not even touch, as a subject too painful for honest & rational minds to dwell on, how badly the Fed's jimmying interest rates lower destabilizes the entire economy & guarantees future poverty.

Highest Dow close for this move took place on 15 March at 13,252.76, and for the S&P500 on 19 March at $1,409.59. Today the Dow added 180.9 (1.23%) to close at 13,241.63 while the S&P500 added 19.4 (1.39%) to 1,416.51. For the S&P500 that was also a marginal new intraday high, but not for the Dow.

In other words, rather than first steps on a new rally, this may mark the opposite, a deadly double top.

How can we tell? If not a double top, tomorrow stocks will advance, should advance strongly. If they piddle, then drop below 13,000, standing under them will be like standing on a sidewalk watching piano movers hoist up a piano on a pulley. Nothing good will be coming your way.

Stupid people are not necessarily evil, but evil people can sometimes look stupid to those who don't know they are evil. Take for instance Bernanke's statements today, & I am not saying Bernanke is personally evil any more than being involved in any fundamentally, irretrievably evil institution makes one evil. I suppose you might work for the Mafia and be a really good person, but it doesn't seem likely.

Anyhow, since I presuppose to virtual certainty that central bankers do to markets what they INTEND to do, I suppose the Nice Government Man Mr. B. WANTED to knock the US dollar index down. Dollar dropped like your mother-in-law's opinion of you when you showed up for Thanksgiving dinner sloppy drunk, just about the time NGM Bernanke was stating his statement. Broke that 79.40-79.30 level that had been supporting it & ended up down 35.7 basis points to 78.928 (-.4%).

Of course, I'm as enthusiastic about the dollar as I am about cholera, and like the euro almost as much as smallpox. The yen ranks around pneumonic plague. But I digress, because all are so patently vile.

The dollar's fall goosed the euro above its 20 DMA but only to the downtrend line. Closed at $1.3356 or up 0.65%, so all y'all planning a trip to France will be paying more (unless you were clever enough to buy GOLD instead of vile paper currencies -- integrity occasionally has its rewards). In Japan the NGM must be worrying that the yen was about to recover after its extended plunge, so despite the dollar's tumble, the yen tumbled, too, down 0.6% to 120.74/Y100 (Y82.82/US$1). No matter, the yen has still pointed its nose skyward.

No surprise to anyone with an IQ greater than the temperature of his feet on a cold day, silver & gold jumped up when Bernanke was slapping the dollar. Gold gained $23.20 on top of Friday's $20 gain to close at $1,685.60, & has now reached the bottom of the range where it fell away.

Meditate: gold has gained $43.20 in the last two days, 2.63%, from last Thursday $1,642.30. Mmmmm.

Gold hit a $1,693.30 high today, plus closing above its 200 day moving average (1,683.66). Momentum is plainly up, but gold again meets its 150 DMA ($1,708.36) at $1,708.36, where strong resistance also awaits ($1,705).

But who knows? Maybe last week we saw Gold's low for the move? Right now gold has its dander up, so expect higher prices tomorrow. Gold needs that close above the 150 DMA to prove it has finished its correction.

SILVER closed the Comex at 3272.6c. In the last two trading days silver has added 140.7c (4.5%). Today it augmented (that's for you engineers out there) 47.8c.

Today buoyed silver up to that internal support/ resistance line, but its 3304c high also reached for the 20 (3345c) and 50 (3333c) day moving averages. For the present I'm working on a tentative theory that both silver & gold bottomed last week, but that will only be proven when this move falters & falls back to a slightly HIGHER low than the last one.

Hang on. Silver & gold are turning exciting.

On 26 March 1937 spinach growers in Crystal City, Texas erected a statue of Popeye. (I did NOT make that up.)

On 26 March 1910 the US congress amended the 1907 Immigration Act that had barred criminals, paupers, anarchists, & carriers of disease from settling in the US. To show you how far undesirables have come, they now ARE the US congress, & the executive branch, too. Shucks, don't forget the supreme court!

On 26 March 1871 the Paris Commune was formally set up. It lasted about as long as those things usually do, which is not long, unless they are supported by US interests as the Soviet Union was. Don't take my word for it, look at Anthony Sutton's work. Now WHY would they do that, capitalists that they are supposed to be?

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
26-Mar-12 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,685.60 23.20 1.40%
Silver, $/oz 32.73 0.48 1.48%
Gold/Silver Ratio 51.506 -0.044 -0.09%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0194 0.0000 0.09%
Platinum 1,647.70 21.50 1.32%
Palladium 668.00 8.80 1.33%
S&P 500 1,416.51 19.40 1.39%
Dow 13,241.63 180.90 1.39%
Dow in GOLD $s 162.39 -0.00 -0.00%
Dow in GOLD oz 7.86 -0.00 -0.00%
Dow in SILVER oz 404.62 -0.39 -0.10%
US Dollar Index 78.93 -0.36 -0.45%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,689.00      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,732.91 1,748.91 1,748.91
1/2 AE 0.50 852.95 886.73 1,773.45
1/4 AE 0.25 430.70 447.59 1,790.34
1/10 AE 0.10 179.03 187.48 1,874.79
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,643.97 1,658.97 1,692.48
British sovereign 0.24 397.59 404.59 1,718.74
French 20 franc 0.19 315.34 322.34 1,726.49
Krugerrand 1.00 1,699.13 1,715.13 1,715.13
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,701.00 1,722.00 1,722.00
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 836.06 878.28 1,756.56
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 418.03 447.59 1,790.34
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 167.21 182.41 1,824.12
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 2,019.97 2,036.97 1,689.45
.9999 bar 1.00 1,694.91 1,705.91 1,705.91
SPOT SILVER: 32.80      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 27,367.52 29,000.00 37.91
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 26,367.52 28,000.00 36.60
90% silver coin bags 0.72 22,915.75 23,265.75 32.54
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 9,204.00 9,379.00 31.79
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 3,305.00 3,345.00 33.45
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 330.50 334.50 33.45
1 oz .999 round 1.00 33.05 33.65 33.65
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 34.40 35.10 35.10
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,647.70      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,672.70 1,715.70 1,715.70
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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