Y'all know what it means to "paint the tape"? That's when stock promoters create a flurry of activity in a stock to make it look good. But, of course, we know that our upright Nice Government Men wouldn't stoop to the same tactics that low-life, white-trash stock promoters use, would they?

Hold that thought! Today stock indices ALL closed down, EXCEPT the most widely watched one, the Dow. It closed UP 19.61 (0.15%) at 13,145.82.

Now look at the background. Stocks started out underwater today, and stayed underwater all day, except the Dow, plumb at the end of the day, found sponsorship & goosed up to close barely higher for the day.

Why, sure! But let us assume that today's outcome really did occur naturally. What meaneth that? That investors fled the higher risk indices to the stodgier blue chips. This argueth not for a higher market, because that risk appetite must rise or stocks can't rise.

Dow is also is playing footsie with it's 20 day moving average below. Today at 13,078, & low was 10,033. And a cross beneath the 20 DMA is the first warning of lower prices. Doesn't always follow through lower, but 'tis still the warning.

STOCKS -- in partnership with the US Government since 1987, when the Plunge Protection Team was founded.

Look here! The US dollar index for the past three days has traded in a ten basis point range, totally comatose. That never lasts, and it looks very strange that the dollar broke down through established support but refused to follow through. Wow. A miracle, I reckon. Well, maybe not.

Euro dropped 0.11% to $1.3301 & still looks sorry as gully dirt to me. It stalled at 1.3368, & has drifted down since then. Ye on the other hand gapped up today above its 20 DMA (121.10) to 121.29, up 0.51%.

Awww, y'all don't want to hear about all these sorry, scrofulous fiat currencies, y'all want to know about silver & gold. Well, they offer a split decision, gold down, silver up, but that's not so bad, for reasons I will candidly divulge shortly.

Bear in mind that I said yesterday I would cling to my conclusion that silver & gold would NOT make lower bottoms unless gold closed below $1,630 and silver below 3140c.

Today gold's low appeared at $1,645.62 & silver's at 3163.2c. In both cases these came as V-bottoms which might mark a turnaround.

Today's split close -- gold down $5.70 to $1,652.20 & silver up 16.1c to 3197.8c -- has in the past months often led to a higher day following.

There's more. In the aftermarket both rose smartly, That looks like nervous shorts covering positions at the day's end.

More yet: silver's rise pushed up above yesterday's resistance. Gold's edged into it.

Something just ain't right. Markets don't get this quiet, with buying and selling so nearly perfectly balanced. When they look quiet, often we are overlooking the real forces about to push one way or the other.

What am I saying? OF COURSE it ain't right, we've got a central bank!

And by the way, every time y'all hear that the European crisis is over, you remember those folks living on the slopes of Vesuvius in AD 79 who kept on saying, "Aww, don't pay that smoke no mind! It ain't nothing."

On 29 March 1814 at the Battle of Horseshoe Bend (Alabama) Andrew Jackson beat the Creek Indians. Read Davy Crockett's description of that campaign in his autobiography. Seems that those settlers didn't fight much differently than the Indians, but then, they were mostly Scotch-Irish & already lived by the law of feud. For the Scots & Scotch Irish, any way you could kill an enemy was all right, provided it killed him.

On 29 March 1848 Niagara Falls stopped flowing for 30 hours due to an ice jam. If that happened today, the Federal government would have rushed in with disaster relief funds.

On 29 March 1897 Japan adopted a gold standard. Wish we could convince them to do that again.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

• Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
• NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
• NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
• NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
• What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
• One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

For complete details on how to buy from us or sell to us, please click here.