Ahh, there's a lesson on that scoreboard, but what does it teach? Stocks rose amidst crowing over the best first quarter since 1998 (or was it 1898?), silver & gold were taken to the woodshed for a beating but ended the week up (pennies count), & the dollar index finally let go flatlining & fell out of the bed. Let's start with the disgusting, repulsive fiat currencies before they sink completely out of sight & become extinct. US dollar index was flat all week but today made a new intraday low for the move. Fell 23.7 basis points (0.3%) to 78.949. Low was 78.727. Lying about 78.30 there appeareth a very important internal support line the dollar dare not cross. If it does, 'twill drop toward 77.50 & the 200 day moving average. Insofar as you can talk about technical analysis in a market so heavily manipulated, you have to expect the dollar to drop more. The Euro stands at about a 45% correction of the fall from its October high (142.47). It sought to conquer the 50% mark in February but failed. Lower highs make for a downtrend. Closed today 1.3342, up 0.31%, which looks great as long as you don't look at the Spanish real estate bust, the Italian stock market bust, the Portuguese bankruptcy, and all the rest. No direction here but permanently lower. The Yen fell back through the 20 DMA that it yesterday conquered (121.03) to close down 0.52% at 120.69c (Y82.86). No matter, it bottomed two weeks ago & has advanced ever since. Will go higher -- consistent with the impenetrable aims & purposes of the Nice Government Men's "minds." Now let's think about stocks -- don't get squeamish on me -- for a few moments. All the folks who sell & tout stocks are all aflutter about this quarter's results. Alas, I bear sober tidings of great sorrow. Stocks do not begin bull markets from high valuations. Historically, when the S&P500's Price/Earnings ratio reaches 7 or lower, it offers good value and a good buy. Above 20 it's about to crack. At the dot.com bust it stood over 40. Today it's at 23.46. Does that sound like the birthplace of a bull market? Today the Dow Jones Industrial's P/E was 14.79 & its dividend yield was 2.47%. Historically dividend yield has been very low & the market ready to tumble whenever dividend yield reached 3.2% (1929) and ready to be bought when 8% or more. Today it's 2.47%. Bull markets are not born at 2.47% dividend yields. Today the Dow amidst near-universal jubilating rose 66.22% (0.5%) to 13,212.04. S&P500 ran along with it, gaining 5.19 (0.37%) to 1,408.47. Yep, both are candidates for double tops. Rally long in the tooth (such teeth as it has left, it's so old), MACD turning down, RSI a little high, and in general rebelling against gravity. BWDIK? I'm only a natural born fool from Tennessee. Haven't even ever OWNED a pair of them shiny, pointy Wall Street shoes. Anent silver & gold last week I wrote, "The end to this correction for silver & gold is not far away, two weeks at most, I suspect. Yes, we might have seen it already, but we'll know that if we get a confirmation like this: a rise to 3300c, then a fall back to 3150c but no lower." Gold had to hold $1,627. Ponder then, & consider: Silver rose this week to 3318c, then fell back to 3163.2c (yesterday). Gold ranged from $1,693.30 to $1,645.60 So far, then, both metals are following my interpretation, that they have already bottomed & will not fall lower, therefore it's time to buy. Both silver & gold rose this week, after making new lows for this move. Yesterday & today both completed key reversals, breaking into new low territory for the move but closing higher yesterday, & closing higher still today. More than that, both metals left behind clean, plain V-bottoms yesterday. But y'all never mind about silver & gold, y'all go buy lottery tickets. Maybe y'all will hit that $640 million jackpot. You're only about 50 times less likely to hit that jackpot than you are to be struck by lightning. Gold today rose $17.10 to close Comex at $1,669.30. Silver rose 49.1c to close 3246.9c. Gold's low came at a comfortable $1,659.70, and it's high at an ambitious $1,670.40. With a 3211c low silver never dropped below 3200c, and rose 30c higher than yesterday at 3261c. Nobody much wanted to go home short silver or gold. UNLESS silver drops below 3150c or gold drops below $1,645, both will not see lower prices. The bottom is in, & it's time to buy. This does not mean that both metals will immediately surge. We may have several months more of frustrating sideways movement (probably will), but they will keep on edging ever higher. Much higher prices will come before the year dies. On 30 March 1858 Hyman L. Lipman of Philadelphia patented the pencil with an eraser. School children around the world rejoiced. On 30 March 1870 Texas became the last Confederate state to be "re-admitted" to the Union. That's odd, because Lincoln's claim all along - what he fought a war for -- was that no state could secede. But if Texas couldn't secede & therefore never had seceded, why did it have to be re-admitted? Beats me, but I'll bet there are a few folks in Texas today who think they made a hasty decision back in 1870. Listen, I'm not a bird, so I don't tweet very often. But I know a lot of y'all are active on Twitter so I'd be much obliged if you would follow @TheMoneychanger. Who knows, you might see some special offers and announcements every now and again. ON FEAR: Several weeks ago I met a man so distracted by stories of conspiracies, manipulations, globalism, etc. that he was nearly disabled from life. Nor is this the first time I've met such people, & they break my heart. Now all you unbelievers will just have to bear with me here, because there is no cure for fear -- especially the fear of evil's might -- except to trust in God. Am I stupid? Do I not see the evil that rules in high places? Do I not grasp their schemes to enslave mankind? Can I not see their fearful progress toward a new world order? Yes, but I remember also the tower of Babel, & I take heart. I recall also what you must never forget: evil is stupid. Evil fights against itself. Remember the Midianites & Amalekites who destroyed themselves in panic when Gideon's little 300 blew their trumpets & shouted? The wicked flee when no man pursues, but the righteous is bold as a lion. I cannot barehanded stop even the evil that pours out of Washington, DC, let alone New York & Brussels. I can only pray & trust that the God of all heaven & earth will act. I can only can act where I have power: in my own family, in my community, in my state. Meanwhile, I refuse to live in that fear that God promises he has delivered us from. Luke 1:74. Anyway, don't judge too soon. Just about the time all the wicked plans of evil people are riding high, God will throw them down in one breath-taking minute. Psalm 73:18-19. Count on it. Fact is, all their schemes are already unravelling, unless you can look around & call this crumbling system success. Y'all enjoy your weekend!
Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
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