Well, I'll be switched. By now y'all have figured out that I sent out yesterday's commentary under the wrong date, 2 April instead of the correct 3 April date.

Please forgive me.

Housekeeping: I will not publish a commentary on Good Friday -- on purpose. We will not be at work on Good Friday.

A drop like yesterday's & today's may have some of y'all thinking about trading in & out of your long term silver & gold positions.

Don't do it. Big mistake.

Sure, you think that you can pick tops to sell -- so try it on paper, and see how well that works. Sure's the world, you'll sell & metals will soar instead of falling.

And when you sell, you have to pay a 7.5% transaction cost on physical gold and silver, you have to net 7.5% just to break even.

Then there's the riddle of when to get back in. Most people miss the bottom, or it doesn't go down and hit their target, and so they watch silver & gold zoom higher while they are sitting there holding scrofulous green dollars and wondering how they outsmarted themselves.

Think: What strategy made you buy silver & gold? Riding the primary trend, the bull market that lasts 15 - 20 years. You don't make profits by trading in and out, scalping off a few points here & there. And by chasing those penny profits, you'll end up losing the hundred-dollar profits.

Does my "ride the bull" strategy work? Ask the people whom I talked out of selling silver at 800c when they had doubled their money.

Now imagine that I were Bernard O'Bama or Ben Bernancubus Bernancubus. Imagine further that yesterday I opined that silver & gold would not drop lower, but in fact they did. At this point I would weave, dodge, bob, & squirm, trying to explain how "lower" really was "higher," in the teeth of hoary mathematics.

Ahh, but ease your troubled minds! I am not one of The Mighty Masters of The Universe, so when I am wrong, I can just chuckle and say, "Well, I warned y'all I am just a natural born fool from Tennessee. Durned if I didn't get it wrong!"

I got this much right: when they fell through my support points, they plunged. But let's get these other markets out of the way before we talk about silver & gold.

The US DOLLAR, contrary to all reason, rose today 31.4 basis points or 0.4%. Good for the dollar, it closed above its 20 DMA (79.55) at 79.742. Technically that's about all it has going for it, and it's an ugly green besides.

The dollar's little surge pulled the rug out from under the euro. It dropped 0.7% today to $1.3142. That's awful, because not only did it gap down, it also fell below the critical 62 day moving average. From here it ought to fly about as well as a Holstein cow dropped out of a C140.

Japanese yen rose 0.47% to 121.28c (Y82.45). Remains above its 20 DMA, and should head higher.

Stocks took it on the chin today. Dow dropped 124.8 (0.95% to 13,074.75 S&P500 dropped even further, 14.42 or 1.02%, and fell below the morale-bruising 1,400 level to 1,398.96.

Dow is now flirting again with 13,000 level, & stands below its 20 DMA (13,138). Beneath stands the 50 DMA at 12,970, and when the Dow crosses that the Investment Rats will begin deserting the good ship Wall Street -- fast.

Gold dropped a massive $57.70 (3.46%) today. (Gold in euros dropped through its 200 DMA!). Gold ended on the low, at $1,612.30. Silver fell a more massive 221.1c or 6.7% to 3102.9c. At http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p58926679755&a=263451479&listNum=1 you'll find a chart of gold that explains my outlook.

In January gold broke out upside, through the downtrend line from the September high. It hit a high at $1,792.70, then dropped back in a correction to kiss that downtrend line, skidding along it but not penetrating it.

Now gold stands right above the peak of that triangle, and if it stoppeth not at $1,600, then twill tumble toward $1,550. Momentum is firmly down, as gold stands below all the moving averages. How much more oversold might gold get? Doesn't seem likely it can get more oversold, but then, I've already been proven wrong so I'll just shut my mouth & watch.

Still, I bought a little gold today, just to keep from getting in the habit of cowardice.

Y'all will find a similar chart for silver at http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p14459616042&a=263461526&listNum=1 You see the downtrend line from the September high that Silver crossed above in mid-January, raced to 3758c, then corrected back to kiss that downtrend line and skid along it. That line today stands a little above 3000c.

Silver's low today came at 3098c, but it closed at 3102.9c. I bought some silver, too.

I can't really say much until a few more days' trading clears the picture, but as long as silver doesn't break 3000c or gold $1,600, they are okay. If they break those levels, then more pain will come our way.

Think "temporary." Bull market in silver & gold continues unharmed by today's shenanigans. As they say in East Tennessee, "Fuhgeddabowdit."

On 4 April 1902 British mountebank, terrorist, & imperialist crook Cecil Rhodes left $10 million in his will to proved scholarships to England's Oxford University. Wholly covered up by the silly prestige these scholarships confer was Rhodes' intent to perpetuate the hegemony of English speaking people over there rest of the benighted world. A tree is known by its fruits. Bill Clinton was a Rhodes scholar. God save us from our "elites"!

On 4 April 1932 C.C. King first isolated Vitamin C. He named it for himself.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

• Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
• NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
• NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
• NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
• What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
• One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

For complete details on how to buy from us or sell to us, please click here.