It was a rough week for everything but the scrofulous US dollar. I reckon every dog has his day, even that cur.

Stocks have eroded all week, having touched 13,300 Monday & tumbled downhill ever since. Big blow to morale came with the S&P500 dropping under 1,400. Dow today closed down 14.61 at 13,060.14, a new low close for the move. S&P closed virtually unchanged at 1,398.08, down 0.88. Market looked confused with the Nasdaq & Nasdaq 100 rising slightly. Once the Dow breaks 13,000, investors will look like the yankee army leaving First Manassas.

US dollar index finally eased above 80 today, closing 80.07, up a massive 2.3 basis points. Watch to see if dollar index can clear 80.74, the last high. Otherwise it's merely inflicting more sideways torture.

The euro has taken the dollar's little spate of strength (I am too intellectually fastidious to discuss the cause of the dollar's strength, namely, ovine investors gullible enough to believe the dollar will strengthen under the Fed's wise guidance) pretty hard, and has collapsed this week. Today it ended at $1.3066, down 0.58%. It has gapped down twice this week, & now stands below all its moving averages, including the crucial 62 DMA. Euro has resumed its trajectory toward $1.2000.

Yen, on the other hand, has stiffened up this week and confirmed a bottom by rising above its 20 DMA. Closed today 121.48c (Y82.31). Will continue to rise -- for no fundamental reason -- until the Nice Government Men again decide to knock it down.

It's a bit too soon after this week's fall to speak definitely about silver & gold, but Mercy! I seldom can speak too definitely about anything, markets being what they are.

Silver & gold both dropped over 2% this week, but bounced back today. Since this is the last day of trading before a long holiday, today's bounce really says very little, as successful shorts would have been closing out positions today & that alone would have floated markets a little.

Gold rose $16.20 to $1,628.50. It reached for that $1,630 support resistance, even touched $1,633.40, but couldn't break through. Low came at $1,608, a bit lower than yesterday's $1,612.30.

Silver bounced 68.7c to 3171.6c when Comex closed. Gold silver ratio dropped a little, to 51.346, which smiles on an optimistic outlook.

Both silver & gold are skidding down the OUTside of a downtrend line from the September highs. This is the same downtrend line they broke thru headed up in January. As long as Gold doesn't close below $1,600 nor silver below 3000c, we won't see lower prices.

Back in the 1970s everybody went ga-ga for bell-bottomed pants, first time they had been in style since the 1930s. Today, you couldn't give 'em away, nor that burnt orange polyester leisure suit you wore back then, with the tie so wide you didn't really need a shirt. Fashions change, and so 'tis with this recent craze for the scrofulous US dollar. It will pass.

Keep your eyes on the horizon. Silver & gold remain in a primary uptrend, and haven't even posted a third of their final bull market gains yet.

Sunday will be the first Sunday after the full moon following the Spring equinox -- in other words, the date the First Council of Nicaea set for celebrating Easter. Because the Eastern Church still uses the Julian Calendar to calculate the date, their Easter falls on a different date that the date the Western Church celebrates.

However you calculate it, may God grant you all a memorable celebration of Christ's resurrection!

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

• Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
• NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
• NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
• NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
• What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
• One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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