I can't be testy or sour today: it's my wife's birthday. I have too much to be thankful for.

However, I don't mind beating up on stocks & scrofulous fiat currencies for a while, just to stay in practice.

Stocks looked right spry today, to folks without much information or insight. Dow jumped 1.4% or 181.19 points to 12,986.58. Before y'all commence to jubilating, I would call to your mind that this only carries stocks back up to where they collapsed, most likely for a final kiss good-bye.

S&P500 jumped 1.38% to 1,387.57, up 18.80. Unless the Dow can scratch & claw its way over 13,000 and the S&P500 over 1,395, these jerks & twitches are no more than you'd get clamping jumper cables to a dead bullfrog.

But what do I know? I'm just a natural born fool from Tennessee who lives out in the country & wants nothing more than to live & die right here. How's that for ambition?

The Scrofulous US dollar index is shedding points like a rattlesnake sheds skin. Today's 39.4 basis point drop (0.51%) took it below the 20 day moving average (79.56) a warning to all watchers that momentum might be turning down.

Look here at some other milestones. Down below, and not too killing far, is the 50 DMA (79.31) & closing below that one sends the dollar limping like Chester on Gunsmoke. But the real "line you'd better not cross" stands at 78.65. Long as the scabby dollar stays above that, it's just moving sideways. Through that it risks a fall to the 200 DMA (77.69) or further.

One thing we know from watching markets: flat doesn't usually last long. Flatness implies a market where buying & selling are perfectly balanced, which happens about twice a millennium. Course, if Nice Government Men are pulling a play, they can keep it flat a little longer -- before it blows up on 'em.

Japanese yen was flat today. Given its chart screaming it wants to advance against the Japanese economy's need to export more, expect the Nice Government Men to attack soon to drive it lower. Closed 123.66c (Y80.87).

More proof of collective insanity: the euro rose today 0.61% to $1.3190, on news that -- Spanish bond yields have risen to 6% again. Situation will continue to decompose, continue to stink while lying governments & banks say it smells of roses.,

Okay, fess up: I called that gold plumb wrong yesterday. It wasn't tapped & topped, it was balling up for a $20.50 jump today to $1,679.50. That's the top of a resistance band bounded above by $1,682.

Clustered here is resistance from several points: $1,682 lateral resistance, 200 DMA at $,1691.50, 150 DMA at $1,694.60, 50 DMA at $1,694.60. More lateral resistance shows up at $1,705.

Does all that mean that gold is deader than a hammer? Not at all. Rather, it means that once gold gets through this clustered resistance -- & the last 5 day's jump from $1,608 to $1,679.50 shows its determination -- gold will jump to $1,750, maybe $1,800 while all the shorts are wiping the smiles off their incredulous faces.

Only a gold close below $1,630 would invalidate this outlook.

Y'all have to figure out how long you want to jack around delaying, procrastinating, dilating, & putting off buying gold. Shucks, why buy at $1,680 when you can wait and buy at $1,800?

Silver rose 3.2% today, 100.4c to 3251.5. Since Monday, 9 April, silver has risen from a low at 3099c to 3251.5 today. I make that 152.5c -- not bad.

There's more in my craw: silver closed today above its 20 DMA (3221c) but silver's big hurdle comes at 3335c, strong lateral resistance. Once silver pierces that veil, next big resistance looms at 3518, the 300 DMA.

Y'all listen: silver has already been dancing under & over & under its 300 DMA, a rare occurrence in this bear market. When it crosses above that mark this time, you can kiss it goodbye.

If silver closed below 3100, my hopeful upside outlook would be utterly gainsaid.

On 12 April 1947 my beloved wife, Susan, was born. She's been blessing everyone within shooting distance -- and some even farther away -- ever since. I'm not partial, just honest.

Y'all can't believe every website you read. For instance, one I follow says that 14 April 1864 Confederate Gen'l. Nathan Bedford Forrest captured Fort Pillow on the Mississippi River in Tennessee and "slaughters black Union troops there." This is a complete lie, as a later US congressional investigation proved, not to mention abundant eye witnesses.

On 12 April 1583 the Netherlands prince & leader of the Dutch war for independence, William of Orange, married the Louise, daughter of French Admiral Coligny, leader of the Protestant Huguenots who was murdered in 1572. William himself was assassinated on 10 July 1584.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

• Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
• NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
• NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
• NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
• What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
• One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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