The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 16 April a.d. 2012 Browse the commentary archive

I know a bunch of y'all will grow exceeding wrathful with me, but I believe that the Stupid Party is setting Bernard O'Bama up for a win this fall by running Mitt "I Have No Personality" Romney. CFR candidate Romney differs not a whit from CFR candidate O'Bama, & surprise, both will appoint more CFR functionaries, wage more wars, & blow more money. Question is, how do you like your hogwash? Full strength from the Stupider Party, or watered down from the Stupid Party?

The Stupid Party & the media have buried the only candidate who differed from the CFR Establishment, Ron Paul, so once again you have no choice in the Potemkin Election. I have no tears left to cry, I just grit my teeth & pray Tennessee will survive these foreign fools.

But on to pleasanter things, like markets today.

Stock indices diverged. Dow rose 71.82 points (0.56%) to 12,921.41 while the NASDAQ composite & S&P500 fell. S&P500 lost 0.69 to 1,369.57. Seems that Apple is on a tear -- a downward tear - and it lost 4.2% today, weighing heavily on those indices since Apple is not in the 30 blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Now none of them smart folks on Wall Street had any clue that Apple was about to tank. Why, its market capitalization passed the whole GDP of Poland & Belgium, and then of Spain, Greece, & Portugal combined, and then of all the rest of US retail stocks, but them smart boys with the pointy shoes never dreamed Apple wouldn't keep on rising everlastingly.

Y'all, you don't need to be a genius to beat these boys, you just have to bridle your greed & remember this: if something sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Or if that's too complicated for your memory, try this: when everybody finally agrees, they are likely every one wrong.

But, shucks, I'm no more'n a natural born fool from Tennessee, and ain't never even seen a pair of them Gucci pointy-toed shoes, let alone owned one. Mercy, we just got shoes here two years ago!

Stocks today, even the Dow Industrials, look toppy again. If the Dow can't pierce 13,000 tomorrow, then it has painted out another double top as it fixes to slide again. S&P500 don't even look that good.

See-saw, see-saw, which way rocked currencies today? Dollar index lost 36.6 basis points, 2/3 of what it gained on Friday, & nobody even winced. Left the scabby dollar index at 79.522, and its course sideways. 50 DMA at 79.33, 20 DMA at 79.48, so it barely has a positive momentum, but other indicators are flat as a gridiron, so don't look for the dollar to run off to the upside. Be lucky if it even wakes up tomorrow.

The euro, the bottom-feeding catfish of currencies, fell off badly when the day opened but rose nearly to the downtrend line. Remains below crucial 62 DMA, & looks sorry as gully dirt. Ain't no future there, although it rose today 0.45% to $1.3136.

The rising sun smiled on the yen today. It gained 0.65% to 124.39c (Y80.39/$US1), & closed above its 50 DMA (123.58). Lay all that aside and look at the chart with a big old slide from 131.52 in February to 118.93 in March, like a ski jump, then a recovery to 124. It's so far below the 200 DMA (127.77) it would need field glasses to spot it from where it sits. Looks weak. 125.2 is the 50% correction, and as a FIRST measure the yen will have to conquer that level before it gets much attention.

Pretty predictably it was a down day for metals, after their Friday performance, but it wasn't so horrid. Gold dropped $10.40 to $1,648.70, still holding on comfortably above my $1,630 drop-dead line. Silver lost only 1.6c, closing 3136.4, well above the 3100c downside trigger. (Low was 3116c)

I glanced at gold in yen and in euro, & was gratified to see that in both currencies it is bouncing along its 200 day moving average. Why is that welcome news? Well, in bull markets the 200 DMA often serves as the target for downside corrections, so if gold has reached that point already after a month & a half/two month decline, then the correction has pretty well worn itself out. Gold in euros is looking plumb perky, like it's itching to rise.

Gold stumbled through that support at $1,650 & fell clean to $1,642, then thought better of itself and bounced up to close at $1,648.70. Trading over $1,650 in the aftermarket.

I accidentally added a 300 day moving average to gold -- accidentally because with silver I watch the 300 DMA but the 150 with gold. It's right interesting.

Gold's declines in December and early April touched or pierced that 300 DMA (now 1,618.36), but I mean "touched" solely & then ran away. On the other hand, gold stands below its 160 (now 1,691.82). I'd have to say that whenever gold reaches that (now rising) 300 DMA, it sucks buyers out of the woodwork.

Oh, and gold closed below its 20 DMA (1658.39) today, which is a little fishy. Other indicators show no sign of further steep or sudden declines.

SILVER's chart just don't look right. Looks crazy, like a New Mexican mesa rising out of the desert floor of 3150c. Folks, that just doesn't normally happen. Looks like somebody hit silver in the head with a ball peen hammer.

Never mind. Silver continues to hang on above 3100c, positive for us. MACD & RSI are flat & offer no clues. Working in our favor is silver's 7 month dance with its 300 DMA, now under, now over, & under again. Stands today at 3520c. Silver needs to pull out of this pretty soon.

On 16 April 1905 Andrew Carnegie donated $10 million to set up the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching. Some say 'twas charity, others that it was to make public education into a tool to create docile workers & voracious consumers. One of the best books I've ever read is John Taylor Gatto's Underground History of American Education, from http://www.johntaylorgatto.com/bookstore/index.htm Don't believe me -- read Gatto.

On 16 April 1917 Vladimir Lenin, Bolshevik leader, returned to Petrograd after a decade's exile in Switzerland. How did he so easily get back into the country? The German high command arranged a sealed train to send him to destabilize Russia. Then later Trotsky left New York on a ship & was arrested in Canada, but ordered released by the US state department. And US capitalists funded the Russian revolution & the Soviets. Doesn't make a lick of sense, does it -- if you believe what you've been told. If you don't want your myths disturbed, don't read Antony Sutton's Wall Street & the Bolshevik Revolution or Wall Street & the Rise of Hitler, not to mention Wall Street & the Rise of FDR.

Y'all thought all this crookedness just started with the Clinton administration, didn't you? Not by a long shot.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
16-Apr-12 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,648.70 -10.40 -0.63%
Silver, $/oz 31.36 -0.02 -0.05%
Gold/Silver Ratio 52.567 -0.305 -0.58%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0190 0.0001 0.58%
Platinum 1,573.20 -8.40 -0.53%
Palladium 652.05 8.85 1.38%
S&P 500 1,369.57 -0.69 -0.05%
Dow 12,921.41 71.82 0.56%
Dow in GOLD $s 162.01 1.93 1.20%
Dow in GOLD oz 7.84 0.09 1.20%
Dow in SILVER oz 411.98 2.50 0.61%
US Dollar Index 79.52 -0.37 -0.46%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,651.20      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,689.18 1,705.18 1,705.18
1/2 AE 0.50 833.86 866.88 1,733.76
1/4 AE 0.25 421.06 437.57 1,750.27
1/10 AE 0.10 175.03 183.28 1,832.83
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,607.18 1,622.18 1,654.94
British sovereign 0.24 388.69 395.69 1,680.94
French 20 franc 0.19 308.28 315.28 1,688.69
Krugerrand 1.00 1,656.15 1,672.15 1,672.15
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,663.20 1,684.20 1,684.20
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 817.34 858.62 1,717.25
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 408.67 437.57 1,750.27
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 163.47 178.33 1,783.30
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,974.76 1,991.76 1,651.95
.9999 bar 1.00 1,656.98 1,667.98 1,667.98
SPOT SILVER: 31.48      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 26,342.77 29,000.00 37.91
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 25,342.77 28,000.00 36.60
90% silver coin bags 0.72 21,932.63 22,182.63 31.02
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 8,813.13 8,988.13 30.47
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 3,172.50 3,212.50 32.13
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 317.25 321.25 32.13
1 oz .999 round 1.00 31.73 32.33 32.33
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 33.08 33.78 33.78
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,573.20      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,598.20 1,641.20 1,641.20
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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