If it wasn't for bad economic news, there wouldn't be any news at all. Case-Shiller home price index today recorded housing prices declined 3.5% from a year earlier. Home prices haven't been this low since November 2002. But I reckon this is still the best of all possible economies.

More confusion is added because the Great Ones of the Federal Open Market Committee meet tomorrow, & none of the tea-leaf readers know exactly which they will jump. If they sound tough on inflation (no QE for you, Bad America!) then the dollar will rise & stocks & metals will suffer. If they sound easy on inflation (Buck up, America -- we have more monetary meth for you!) then the dollar will suffer and stocks & metals should rise.

So ridiculous as it is, markets await the pronouncements of 17 people who don't know any more than the rest of us, but have their hands on the monetary spigot forbidden to the rest of us. That means the dollar is key to where markets move next. The dollar since November 2011 has been trading into a long even- sided triangle. It sitteth square upon the bottom boundary thereof, and should it break that limit, should fall clean to the 200 day moving average (77.88).

However, the dollar remains - by the hair on its green paper chin -- in an uptrend. That means the market is biased in favor of an upward outcome. Truth to tell, I watch these events & can seldom parse how the public & the Wise Ones Commenting will take the Fed's moves. I'd have as much luck trying to parse a Roman haruspex reading the guts of sacrificed sheep. None of it makes a lick of sense.

That's why I fall back on the fundamental set up of government & fed, where the institutional imperative is "Inflate or die!" Never mind what soothing words they drool, they most assuredly will inflate, sooner or later.

Back to currencies. Yen today dropped 0.2% to 122.96c/Y100 (Y81.33/US$1). It stands above its 50 DMA and 20 DMA, but with a gappy, jumpy pattern that makes little sense. Resembles recent pointless trading in the euro. Euro rose 0.32% today to $1.3197. This is a likely time for the Nice Government Men to manipulate the bejabbers out of the market, given the skittishness in Europe & woes in Japan.

Dow Jones Industrial Average closed over 13,000 today -- just barely, at 13,001.56, up 74.39 or 0.58%. S&P500 rose 5.03 (0.37%) to 1,371.97.

Dow's five day pattern is directionless to weak, up and down but blocked by 13,100 the way Kryptonite blocks Superman. S&P500 looks about the same, but weaker still. Stocks are ready to fall off a cliff, unless some central bank deus ex machina saves them.

Gold rose $11.10 today to $1,643 and silver rose 21.5 cents to 3074.6 cents. Truth is, this doesn't tell us very much. Yes, both silver & gold left behind little spike bottoms yesterday, but without a rise above 3140c in silver or $1,655 in gold, nothing is resolved. And hanging over the market like a big question mark is the FOMC meeting tomorrow.

Only my opinion, but yesterday may have taken silver & gold down as low as they will go. Too early to tell yet, but likely.

NEVER BEFORE OR SINCE IN AN AMERICAN COURT:

In March 1912 Floyd Allen was convicted of assault in Hillsville, Virginia. He and his kin believed the courthouse gang had transformed this prosecution into a persecution. When the guilty verdict was announced, Floyd stood up & said, "Gentlemen, I ain't a goin'."

No one knows who fired first, but a gun battle broke out in the crowded courtroom. Five people were killed outright, two died later, and Floyd was wounded. The Allens fled to the hills, setting loose the greatest manhunt of the time, led by the infamous Baldwin-Felts Detective Agency. Floyd and his 22 year old son Claude were executed a year later. Four other family members served long prison sentences, and one was murdered.

Thomas Moore has written a novel version of the Hillsdale massacre entitled "No Villains, No Heroes." It's a tale about the true meaning of law and justice, and the deadly dangers of runaway government & rouge police.

You can order a copy signed by the author from www.ThomasMooreBooks.com. While you're there, take a look at Tom's unforgettable novel, "The Hunt For Confederate Gold." You won't be able to forget either of these great books. Without any qualification, I highly recommend them both.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

• Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
• NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
• NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
• NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
• What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
• One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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