The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 2 May a.d. 2012 Browse the commentary archive

If y'all think you're going to find any comfort in these markets, you can lay that idea down & stomp on it.

STOCKS backed off today, left behind a big BUMP yesterday. Oh, they did nothing you could point at and say, "There! See there! That means this or that." Dow just backed off a measly10.75 points to 13,268.57, dropping it right back down into topping territory and beneath 12,300 resistance. S&P said no more, ending at 1,402.31, down 3.51.

Oh, momentum is up, but stocks must do more than hovering in the air. Ain't no hovering in markets.

CURRENCIES today were whacked by the dollar, which -- O, mercy, why do I bother with such a manipulated, silly market -- instead of following through to the downside after breaking out downward out of a triangle4 months a-building. Wait, wait -- dollar index only rallied up to the lower boundary of the triangle. Not a sure thing yet. Dollar index rose 30.9 basis points (0,4%) to 79.139, above the magic 79.

Euro was hurt worst by dollar frenzy, losing 0.62% to $1.3157. That takes it below the 20 & 62 day moving averages again. Yen took a licking, too, and ended at 124.81 (80.12) but remains in its uptrend.

What holds for other markets holds for silver & gold as well: no hovering allowed. Gold broke $1,660 resistance today & fell $8.30 to $1,653.40. Yes, yes, that's above $1,650 but it did dip below to $1,647.35. Remains outside the upper boundary of that falling wedge, but unless it climbs above $,1650 tomorrow & charges toward $1,682, next move will be down.

Silver gave up 28.5 cents today to break through 3060c support and close at 3059.2c. Today it touched back to the falling wedge's upper boundary line. You can see what I mean at http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62737650116&a=264735684&listNum=1 If silver breaks that line, it could fall to 2950c.

Now my emotions are no more reliable than anybody else's. That's why I try to throttle them back. Maybe I'm turning negative on silver & gold at exactly the wrong time. May be. I look at that gold chart and think, "Mmmm. Just about to fly." http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p39039847050&a=264942762&listNum=1

Anyhow, like everything else in this fallen world, they have to prove themselves, and I'm still waiting.

Those of y'all waiting to swap who are getting tired of waiting for my 57.5:1 gold/silver ratio might want to observe that the ratio today stands at 54.047:1. If you are antsy, go head and swap gold for silver at any ratio above 54:1. If stocks rise, that should carry silver higher against gold. Why? Because silver tends to trend against gold in the same direction as stocks.

On the tragic second of May 1863, at the height of his power and moment of his greatest victory, Confederate Genl. Thomas "Stonewall" Jackson was wounded in the dark by his own men in the Battle of Chancellorsville. He died 8 days later.

Jackson got his wishes: he died on a Sunday, & he did not live to see the death of his country's independence.

His body lay in state at the Virginia capitol. At the end of the day Governor Letcher ordered the doors closed. Shortly there came a great pounding on the door, and when it was opened there stood a one-armed soldier. When they asked him what he wanted, he raised his stump and said, 'By this right arm that I gave for my country, I demand to see my commander one last time!" When Governor Letcher heard all this, he escorted the veteran to Jackson's bier himself. SPECIAL OFFER

U.S. $5 & $10 modern commemoratives.

These are US $5 and $10 gold commemoratives minted to the ancient U.S. standard over the past 20 years.

The US gold $5 commemorative contains 0.2418 oz gold and costs US$414.90 while the US gold $10 commem contains just twice as much gold, 0.4838 oz, and costs US$829.80.

Premium over gold content value for these is a tiny 3.75% (gold basis is $1,653.40).

I will sell lots of Five (5) each $5 gold commems ($414.90 each) for $2,074.50 + $25 shipping = $2,099.50 per lot. A $10 gold counts as two $5 golds, so you can order one $10 and three $5s and that equals five $5s.

I reserve the right to mix the orders as suits me, but have mostly $5s, so you'll most likely get those.

Limit ten (10) lots per customer.

Special Conditions:

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail.

We will not take orders for less than the minimums shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed. If you want faster shipping, please send a wire.

Spot gold basis for all prices above is $1,653.40 ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to fs@the-moneychanger.com. No phone orders, please.

Your email must include your complete name, address, & phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

Repeat, you must include your complete name, address, and phone number. Our clairvoyant quit without warning last week and we can no longer read your mind.

2. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.

3. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail.

4. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

5. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.

6. We allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship. If your hurry is greater than that, you can send a bank wire. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
2-May-12 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,653.40 -8.30 -0.50%
Silver, $/oz 30.59 -0.29 -0.92%
Gold/Silver Ratio 54.047 0.230 0.43%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0185 -0.0001 -0.43%
Platinum 1,560.50 -10.40 -0.66%
Palladium 667.15 -12.50 -1.84%
S&P 500 1,402.31 -3.51 -0.25%
Dow 13,268.57 -10.75 -0.08%
Dow in GOLD $s 165.89 0.71 0.43%
Dow in GOLD oz 8.03 0.03 0.43%
Dow in SILVER oz 433.73 3.66 0.85%
US Dollar Index 79.14 0.04 0.05%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,653.70      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,688.43 1,704.43 1,704.43
1/2 AE 0.50 835.12 868.19 1,736.39
1/4 AE 0.25 421.69 438.23 1,752.92
1/10 AE 0.10 175.29 181.91 1,819.07
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,604.75 1,619.75 1,652.47
British sovereign 0.24 389.28 396.28 1,683.44
French 20 franc 0.19 308.75 315.75 1,691.19
Krugerrand 1.00 1,657.01 1,673.01 1,673.01
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,663.70 1,683.70 1,683.70
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 818.58 859.92 1,719.85
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 409.29 438.23 1,752.92
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 163.72 178.60 1,786.00
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,973.76 1,990.76 1,651.13
.9999 bar 1.00 1,659.49 1,670.49 1,670.49
SPOT SILVER: 30.63      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 26,189.24 29,000.00 37.91
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 24,689.24 28,000.00 36.60
90% silver coin bags 0.72 21,328.45 21,578.45 30.18
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 8,563.85 8,738.85 29.62
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 3,033.00 3,073.00 30.73
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 308.80 312.80 31.28
1 oz .999 round 1.00 30.38 31.28 31.28
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 32.23 32.93 32.93
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,560.50      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,600.50 1,655.50 1,655.50
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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