Facebook's IPO fell flat on its face today, down several times as low as the $38 offering price, & up on the day only 1%. Not a blistering success when IPO's usually gain 10 - 15%. That's a sour comment on investor interest and the mood of the stock market.

Yesterday I warned y'all -- natural born fool from Tennessee that I am -- that the euro was "monstrously oversold" so you ought to watch for a sudden rally. It happened today, when the euro rose 0.66% to $1.2778. Eyeing a record short position, traders bailed out -- or were squeezed out -- before the G8 summit this weekend. Y'all already know how those Nice Government Men like weekend surprises.

First half of this year mine was probably the only voice in the known universe -- well, one of the few anyhow -- warning y'all that the stock market rally was a trap. The trap has been sprung, & I don't look nearabout so foolish now. Not that I'm the brightest bulb in the box, I just read labels before I drink contents. Label on this stock market is "BEAR: Primary Downtrend. Caution, can be hazardous to your solvency & your retirement."

S&P500 touched 1,291 today. Now why would I mention that price? I'm right glad y'all asked. The S&P500 formed a head & shoulders topping pattern beginning in February, and two weeks ago fell through the neckline, signalling a breakdown. From that breakdown at 1,360, it has dropped 8 of the last 9 days, & today opened the trap door at 1,300 & jumped through, closing down 9.64 (0.74%) at 1,295.22.

But why 1,291? Because that was the top of the last wave up in November. Should it pierce that support, this battle will get bloody indeed.

The Dow, which closed today at 12,369.38 (down 73.11 or 0.47), took longer to complete its head & shoulders but falling 12 out of the last 13 days helped a bunch. Dow broke that neckline (about 12,650) two days ago and fell like a drunk at a bar knocking back one too many Tequila shooters.

Both the S&P500 & the Dow are nearing their 200 day moving average (Dow's is now 12,199 & S&P's is 1,278.22) which ought to provide some support for a bounce. After that, doom will resume.

US DOLLAR INDEX fell 36.8 basis points (0.47%) today to 81.125. High came at 81.758, which pert near matches the January peak at 81.78. Not clear to me yet whether the dollar will keep on rallying thru 81.78 after a correction. Yen jumped broad and high yesterday and today, up 0.36% today to 126.57c/Y100 (Y79.00/US$1).

I keep picturing a stranger from outer space. He lands on my farm and wants me to tell him about our world. I try to put the best face on things that I can, but he keeps going back to the monetary system: "You use WHAT for money?" I'm so embarrassed I want to dig a hole and crawl in.

THIS WAS THE WEEK THAT SILVER & GOLD TURNED AROUND. Ahh yes, the day dawned, the sky cleared, and that support at $1,526.70 HELD. Do I flatter myself, or did the entire mood in the metals' markets change? Our phones have been ringing off the wall, well, off the desk.

Today gold rose another $17.10 on top of yesterday's $38.30 to close Comex at $1,591.60. Gold rapped on the door of $1,600 with a $1,597.50 high. To maintain this V-bottom pattern, gold must climb quickly through $1,600, $1,630, & then the killer $1,682. Look for at least two of those barriers to fall next week.

Stop waiting to buy gold & silver. Do it NOW.

SILVER held that support from Oct 11 & Dec 11 (2615c). Low came at 2673c on Wednesday. Silver must now advance through 2900 & jump right smart toward 3000c. Tougher battles will be fought at 3150c.

That's it. That confirms the December low was indeed the low. That turns silver & gold's direction upward again. Only closes below 2673c & $1,526.70 could gainsay that conclusion.

With the lows in silver & gold the gold/silver ratio TOPPED at 56.540. Today it floats still at 55.468. If you have not yet swapped gold for silver, you must act quickly. The ratio can fall fall with blinding rapidity. Do not miss this opportunity to set yourself up for another gigantic profit-in-ounces when the ratio again falls to where 28 silver ounces will buy one gold ounce, instead of 55.468.

This week marked the turning point for this correction. Now silver & gold have turned their faces up, toward those old highs at $1,927 & 4982c. Climb aboard, or miss the ride!

On 18 May 1804 the freely elected French Senate proclaimed Napoleon Bonaparte emperor. It had taken the French precisely 15 years to go from monarchy through Revolution back to monarchy, at a cost of only several millions dead. Russian revolution was worse. They went from an absolutist autocrat in 1917 to a totalitarian autocrat, Stalin, in only 11 years.

Speaking of dictators & Stalin, on 18 May 1933 the Tennessee Valley Authority was created for the wholly unconstitutional purpose of having the Federal Government run people off their land, dam up rivers, flood thousands of acres, and provide a dribble of electricity to the folks they had evicted. Same thing was going on in Russia then. Any dictator worth his shoulder boards had to have a gigantic hydroelectric project rolling.

I will be away on a cruise from tomorrow through June 1. I won't be publishing commentaries during that time, but the turnaround in silver & gold make your course plain anyway.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

• Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
• NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
• NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
• NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
• What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
• One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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