The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 15 June a.d. 2012 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  8-Jun 15-Jun Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 2,846.10 2,873.40 27.30 1.0
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,590.10 1,627.00 36.90 2.3
Gold/silver ratio 55.869 56.623 0.750 1.3
Silver/gold ratio 0.0179 0.0177 -0.0002 -1.3
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 163.21 162.21 -1.00 -0.6
Dow in gold ounces 7.90 7.85 -0.05 -0.6
Dow in Silver ounces 441.10 444.32 3.22 0.7
Dow Industrials 12,554.20 12,767.17 212.97 1.7
S&P500 1,325.66 1,342.84 17.18 1.3
US dollar index 82.51 81.55 -0.96 -1.2
Platinum 1,423.60 1,485.70 62.10 4.4
Palladium 610.65 629.10 18.45 3.0

As always, the weekly scoreboard tells its own unarguable tale. Gold gained 2.3%, silver 1%, Dow rose 1.7%, most of that in the last two days. US dollar index lost 1.2% as the Nice Government Men prepared their Rube Goldberg system for the potential shock from Greek elections.

To the unanimous approval of the world phrenological community, central bankers meeting in Los Cabos, Mexico last night affirmed that they would inject vast new waves of fresh money to aid their struggling economies.

As I hinted above, the cloud hanging over every market that has the Nice Government men staying up late sweating bullets and jimmying markets is the election in Greece. Hard to understand Greek politics even if you speak Greek, but basically two philosophies are represented in the election: the Establishment parties that favor complete and utter capitulation and abasement before the banks, and the other parties that favor complete and utter capitulation and abasement before the banks, only a little more slowly. This compares favorably to Republicans and Democrats in the US, who don't even offer that much choice. Whichever party wins the election, the banks win & the people lose.

STOCKS were the primary gainer from the central bankers' phrenological announcement & the Greek elections, as the faithful labor under the Galvanic delusion that repeatedly applying the inflation nostrum that didn't work the first time will somehow make it work the next. In plain words, they expect central banks to jump in with another paroxysm of money printing (like QE) and they believe that monetary electricity will shock the body economic into lively action. Say, are any of y'all familiar with the Cargo Cult? It works a lot the same way on New Guineans that central banking works on stock investors, only less harmfully.

Technically stocks have risen out of what seemed to be a head and shoulders top but now appears to be a continuation pattern and the Dow will probably hit 13,100 before it stops. But don't light the landing torches just yet, for the cargo planes have not been spotted & stocks will yet disappoint, dismay, and torture.

Dow Industrials today rose 115.26 (0.91% to end at 12,767.17. S&P500 rode right along with it, a few steps ahead in fact, rising 13.74 (1.03%) to 1,342.84.

Y'all should seize any rise in stocks to sell your stocks and convert the proceeds into silver & gold.

US DOLLAR INDEX (with the Nice Government Men's help, surely) looked even worse today than yesterday,. It lost 32.3 basis points (0.42%) and ended the day at 81.547. Technically this leaves the dollar correcting a peak at 83.54 (1 June) from a previously unbroken rally that began 1 May at 78.60. Below its 20 DMA, the dollar index could fall to 80.75 without any effort whatever, and still recover & continue rallying.

Yen today gapped up through its 20 DMA (126.30) to end up 0.91% at 127.15, smack on its 200 DMA (127.15). Above the only barrier (other than NGM) is the last high at 128.77.

The euro is most egregiously iffy. Closed today up a meager 0.08% at $1.2642, but this barely pokes through resistance at $1.2624 from the January (and last low). And 'tis walking above its 20 DMA. A huge short position in the euro virtually guarantees a very sharp rally at some point.

For the week gold gained 2.3% and passed other milestones. It busted through all that resistance from $1,590 through $1,608, was whipped, battered, beaten, and attacked & still slogged through $1,608 and marched into enemy territory to stake out a camp today at $1,627, up $8.60 on the day.

Gold's gain came in the teeth of an early morning attack that sent it reeling to $1,618.90. Faster than the fall it shot straight up to $1,633.60, then was clubbed again down to $1,621 -- all within the space of an hour. Gold arose & fought its way back to $1,632, but eased then to confirm that $1,622 bottom once again and solidify its gains with that $1,627 close.

Looks like the gold manipulation is about as successful as most government operations.

Since last September gold has traced out a vast declining triangle, with a base about $1,525. It must clear $1,725 to escape that triangle, & that lies above its 150 DMA (now $1,663.26). Don't expect any sharp falls in gold, nothing more below $1,610, but the rise across the summer should feel more like shuffling sideways than rising. Relax, possess your souls in patience. The bottom of that correction has been reached, and from here gold is headed for higher prices.

Today silver traded in a 30 cent range, from 2884c to 2854c. Yeah, sure. Closed up 33.3c at 2873.4c.

Silver, too, has painted a declining triangle, & validated its base around 2650. Like $1,725 for gold, silver must pass above 3400c & its 300 DMA at 3443c to stop the mouths of quibblers, whiners, & moaners. It will, oh, it will.

On the road right in front, silver must conquer the hill at 2910c, then move through the 50 DMA at 2965c. Assuming the Greek election doesn't elect Medusa, expect the "good news" of euro-peace in Greece to send the euro up and silver & gold down a bit. On the other hand, should Medusa be elected and turn the bankers to stone by her mere glance, the euro will tank & silver & gold soar.

BOTTOM LINE: Silver & gold put the bottoms on their corrections on 18 May and from here will fight their way upward. I expect that sometime in the fall gold will exceed its September 2011 high ($1,927 intraday, $1,888 close).

Buy more silver & gold. If you have a position heavy in gold (more than 30% gold), consider swapping some of that gold for silver at the present 56.6:1 ratio, targeting an eventual swap back into gold at under 30:1. (That implies -- DOES NOT GUARANTEE -- that silver will gain about 50% against gold and that at 30:1 silver will buy about twice as many ounces of gold as it buys now.)

On 15 June 1215 in Runnymede, England the bishops & barons of England, fed up with King John's oppression, asserted their ancient rights and forced him to sign the Magna Carta or Great Charter of Liberties. Once widely understood and protected as the foundation of all English & American liberty, few today know the rights it guaranteed and tyrannies it forbade or that it ended arbitrary government. Today most of these liberties have, as a practical matter, been lost. They include:

* Freedom of the Church

* Freedom from arbitrary search or seizure without due process. Nearly dead, thanks to the Patriot acts and other tyrannies.

* Justice shall not be sold.

* Freedom to travel. Y'all don't have this, do you? You do have driver's "licenses" (permits), don't you? You do submit to search -- even strip search -- to board an airplane, right? Or maybe they don't do that where y'all are.

Yet whatever tyrannies the government practices, by ancient right and inheritance the rights secured by Magna Carta are still ours. They may be stolen, but they can never lawfully be taken from us. We may be overpowered, but we can never be conquered.

Thank you all for your prayers for my wife Susan. I took her to her heart surgeon in Nashville today, & there is a slim chance she may not have to have a mitral valve replacement right away. If that chance falls through, then she will have surgery 3 July.

I deeply appreciate not only your kind emails, but also your generous willingness to pray for successful surgery and speeding healing for her.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
15-Jun-12 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,627.00 8.60 0.5
Silver, $/oz 28.73 0.33 1.2
Gold/Silver Ratio 56.620 0.293 0.5
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0177 0.0002 1.2
Platinum 1,485.70 -0.40 -0.0
Palladium 629.10 -4.50 -0.7
S&P 500 1,342.84 13.74 1.0
Dow 12,767.17 115.26 0.9
Dow in GOLD $s 162.21 0.63 0.4
Dow in GOLD oz 7.85 0.03 0.4
Dow in SILVER oz 444.32 -1.15 -0.3
US Dollar Index 81.55 -0.32 -0.4
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,626.20      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,661.98 1,676.98 1,676.98
1/2 AE 0.50 821.23 853.76 1,707.51
1/4 AE 0.25 414.68 430.94 1,723.77
1/10 AE 0.10 172.38 178.88 1,788.82
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,578.06 1,592.06 1,624.22
British sovereign 0.24 382.81 389.81 1,655.94
French 20 franc 0.19 303.61 310.61 1,663.69
Krugerrand 1.00 1,639.21 1,654.21 1,654.21
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,636.20 1,656.20 1,656.20
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 804.97 845.62 1,691.25
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 402.48 430.94 1,723.77
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 160.99 175.63 1,756.30
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,940.94 1,956.94 1,623.07
.9999 bar 1.00 1,631.89 1,642.89 1,642.89
SPOT SILVER: 28.68      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 24,677.25 26,000.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 23,177.25 25,000.00 32.68
90% silver coin bags 0.72 20,431.13 20,681.13 28.92
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 7,987.13 8,162.13 27.67
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,867.50 2,917.50 29.18
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 291.75 294.25 29.43
1 oz .999 round 1.00 28.53 29.38 29.38
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 30.28 30.98 30.98
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,485.70      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Platinum Platypus 1.00 1,510.70 1,550.70 1,550.70
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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