The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 18 July a.d. 2012 Browse the commentary archive

I hate to waste y'all's time with meaningless stuff -- and everything that happens in Washington is meaningless -- but this was too ridiculous to pass up, because it is simply a hilarious, gargantuan, bald- faced lie, colossal even by Washington standards.

Federal Reserve chairman & noted criminal Ben "the Bloviator" Bernanke spoke to the US House of Representatives Financial Services Committee. Somebody brought up Ron Paul's bill to audit the Fed and allow congress to review the Fed's monetary policy decisions. The very thought of that sent Bernanke's Lying Gland squirting into overdrive. The result is so hilarious I have to share it with y'all, from the Reuters report:

"Bernanke said it would be a 'nightmare scenario' if politicians decided to second-guess monetary policy. [Nightmare? Nightmare? Worse than what we suffer now? -- FS]

"That is very concerning [this is barely recognizable as English -- FS] because there's a lot of evidence that an independent [Yuck! Yuck! Yuck!] central bank that makes decisions based strictly on economic considerations [Yuck! Yuck!] and not based on political pressure [Yuck, yuck even more!] will deliver lower inflation & better economic results in the longer term."

To maintain the Fed does not base its actions on political pressure is, well, simply hilarious. And to claim that with or without political pressure it can deliver "lower inflation & better economic results in the longer term" flies in the face of all known history since the Fed's founding in 1913.

Maybe he's not just a criminal. Maybe he's a sociopath, too. Or maybe he's practicing to be a stand up comedian!

So, all joking aside -- and them central bankers are notoryus jokers, all funny bone -- what happened to markets today?

Dollar took a tee-tiny hit from the Bernancubus' comments, stocks read in them the soon-coming Jubilee, & silver & gold tucked tail and ran.

The US dollar index right now is trading down 4/10 of a basis point, but below the 83 psychological barrier at 82.972. For three days now the buck has knocked on 89.92, increasing the odds that next time it knocks, the trap door will open.

Euro lost 0.7% today, basically flat at $1.2284. Yen added 0.34% to 126.91c (78.80), but is just vibrating around its 200 day moving average 126.71), unable to make up its mind and still trapped in a downtrend.

Stocks drank a bunch of that Bernanke Booze & ran hog wild. Dow rallied 103.16 (0.81%) to 12,908.70. S&P500 gained 0.7% (9.11) to 1,372.78.

Tame your jubilation, stock investors. This merely brings both indices closer to the neckline of the head & shoulders top they already smashed in May. More, they have scratched out Rising Wedges, which generally fail & crash.

Gold lost $18.70 (1.18%) today, closing Comex at $1,570.40. Silver lost less, 22.1 cents (0.8%), to end at 2707.1 cents.

Gold & silver are just in the middle of things. Middle of the trading range defined by Bollinger bands, middle of the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) and in the middle of the Williams % R. Just middlin', that's all.

Silver over the past 3 days has formed a sort of diamond formation that could break further or could merely found a continuation. Gold's chart isn't nearly so clean, but has drawn a support line at $1,570 with last Friday's low. I know to remain alert always, but can't see anything in all this other than the indecisive back & forth trading in a triangle. It will resolve. Be patient, & buy the dips.

On 18 July 1969 a car being driven by Senator Edward Kennedy plunged off a bridge on Chappaquiddick Island. Unfortunately, he left behind his passenger, Mary Jo Kopechne, who died. Kennedy did not report the fatal accident for ten (10) hours, but was never charged with anything. This is how equal justice under the law works in the US -- some folks are more equal than others.

On 18 July 1925 Adolf Hitler published volume one of his manifesto, "Mein Kampf" (My Struggle). He explained there everything he planned to do, but either nobody read him, or nobody believe him. Some folks regretted not reading that book. That reminds me of Bernanke's November 2002 speech about containing deflation. He laid out there everything he has since done. No surprise if you read his book.

MILESTONES OF AMERICAN CULTURE. ON 18 July 1936 the first Oscar Meyer Wienermobile rolled out of the factory.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
18-Jun-12 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,570.40 -18.70 -1.18%
Silver, $/oz 27.07 -0.02 -0.08%
Gold/Silver Ratio 58.010 -0.645 -1.10%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0172 0.0002 1.11%
Platinum 1,401.80 3.50 0.25%
Palladium 576.30 5.55 0.97%
S&P 500 1,372.78 9.11 0.67%
Dow 12,908.70 103.10 0.81%
Dow in GOLD $s 169.92 3.36 2.02%
Dow in GOLD oz 8.22 0.16 2.02%
Dow in SILVER oz 476.85 4.18 0.88%
US Dollar Index 82.97 -0.00 -0.00%
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SPOT GOLD: 1,574.60      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,613.97 1,628.97  
1/2 AE 0.50 795.17 826.67  
1/4 AE 0.25 401.52 417.27  
1/10 AE 0.10 166.91 173.21  
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,527.99 1,541.99  
British sovereign 0.24 370.66 377.66  
French 20 franc 0.19 293.98 300.98  
Krugerrand 1.00 1,587.20 1,602.20  
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,584.60 1,604.60  
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 779.43 818.79  
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 389.71 417.27  
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 155.89 170.06  
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,879.35 1,895.35  
.9999 bar 1.00 1,580.11 1,591.11  
SPOT SILVER: 27.10      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22,959.14 26,000.00  
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 21,959.14 25,000.00  
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US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 7,522.50 7,697.50  
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,710.00 2,760.00  
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 276.00 278.50  
1 oz .999 round 1.00 26.95 27.80  
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 28.70 29.40  
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,401.80      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,426.80 1,466.80  
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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