If markets get any flatter, we'll need to hold a mirror under their nose to see if they're still breathing. This week silver gave up a empty 6.5 cents, dollar a piddlin' $9.10, Dow escalated a nugatory 0.4%, S&P500 a hollow 0.5%, while the almighty US dollar (index) levitated a feckless 0.1%. Look at that US Dollar index 5 day chart. (You can view it yourself at www.ino.com, using symbol "NYBOT:DX".) These tea leaves present two warring interpretations. First, the dollar made a correction this week with a rounding bottom & next week will burst through 83.60 to greater highs. On the other hand, the dollar may have broken and today jumped up for a final kiss good bye before falling through 82.75 next week headed for the earth's core. My outlook for the dollar is strongly colored by central bankers' needs. Those needy fellers right now need stability more than anything else, & neither the European criminals (ECB) nor the US racketeers (Fed) want the dollar to run moonward while the euro plumbs the Marianas trench. They want to keep the whole system together, not preside over its demise. Therefore expect the dollar to remain BELOW the last 83.83 high, but above the 81.52 last low. But the stability plan isn't panning out. Surprise. Euro gapped down & made another new low for the move today -- $1.2144, lowest since May, 2010. None of that is liable to make Mario Draghi or Angela Ferkel or Bloviating Ben sleep well tonight. Closed down 0.94% at $1.2164. As grounds for this tumble media tout a request from the heavily indebted Valencia region asking Madrid for financial aid. That hints that Spain itself needs rescuing. That sucked all optimism out of stocks & the euro & sent it hurtling into the black hole of outer space. Note, dear readers, how the Central Bank criminals have been applying the "slow burn" technique to European problems. In their book, if it doesn't flare up into a full-blown panic with lines outside the banks & blood running by gallons in the street, they are still winning. If they get to 5:00 p.m. and the financial system hasn't exploded, they win. Today. I could almost guarantee that they already have a target for the new $/Euro exchange rate, somewhere around $1.1800 - $1.2000, & when it reaches that level they'll all start intervening to set a new rate. In other words, they are devaluing the euro like a kid slowly hissing the air out of a balloon. I'm telling y'all, as I have told y'all, this is past saving, past reforming, & you are smoking meth if you believe the measures tried so far will resuscitate severely debt-poisoned & debt-addicted economies. Ain't no central bankers going to let that yen run away, either. Today it gained 0.11% to end at 127.36c (Y78.47), but that just edged it sidewise and didn't rise through the downtrend line. Remains, however, above the 200 DMA (126.68), a sure botheration for the Japanese Nice Government Men. Stocks this week hit their top Bollinger Band (a measure of current range) and, unable to penetrate, bounced down, losing most of the weeks' gains today. S&P 500 dipped 1.01% today (13.85) to close 1,362.66. Dow slipped 0.93% (120.79) and ended 12,822.57. A bear market likes to lure investors into its den where it can maul them & gnaw their bones at leisure. 'Twouldn't surprise me to see the Dow reach 13,000 to universal jubilation before it plunges again. Y'all just remember that when the jubilation breaks out, so you don't get mangled in the bear's cave. Gold mounted by $2.40 today to rest at $1,582.50. Silver waxed 8.5 cents to 2727.9 when the closing bell rang at Comex. Gold was beaten up but not dismayed this week. On the 5 day chart it scratched out a kind of rounding bottom, with a low at $1,568. Clearly at $1,575 lurk plenteous buyers. But that only offers us a floor. Up above, gold must break out of this jail by closing above $1,600. Gold tradeth still within an ambiguous even-sided triangle. Next week the bottom of that triangle stands about $1,560 & rising, the top boundary at $1,610 and falling. Today's close left gold below its 20 day moving average ($1,583.10) and its 50 DMA ($1,586.94), but barely. It's trading sideways into a tighter and tighter range, but we'll see some fun if it breaks $1,600 or $1,560. This is not failure, only gold working out the last of its correction from last August's $1,927 high. Be patient, and buy gold whenever it has a bad day and falls. Autumn will reveal that all this sidewise trading amounted to no more than base building for a rally. In the last fortnight's trading silver has built a flat topped rising triangle within a falling wedge. These patterns usually break out upside. Until silver punches through 2760c, nothing much will happen. Down below it needs to hold 2610c. As with gold, buy on any retreats. Premiums on silver & gold physicals still indicate strong physical demand. If you haven't yet traded gold for silver, now's about your time. Ratio stands at 58.012 today, & surely won't linger there for long. I sing the same song as last week: summer seasonal weakness for silver & gold and a correction rapidly coming to its end. Be calm, keep your eyes on the horizon, not the bumpy ground in front of you, and don't listen to anybody who works on Wall Street or in Washington or the mainstream media. AIN'T OVER TILL IT'S OVER. In the struggle for Scottish independence 20 July 1304 was a black day: Stirling Castle, last rebel stronghold, fell to Edward I of England. It was too early to count the Scots out, though their victory didn't come soon. On 23 June 1314, thirteen years later, Robert the Bruce with 5,000 to 10,000 Scots beat Edward I's son, Edward II (they had severe name-rationing in England in those years), with 25,000 troops. Smashed his army. A LITTLE FAVOR: I don't need to tell y'all that finding a legislator, even a state legislator, who genuinely and unselfishly promotes liberty is harder than finding an honest man working for a central bank. All the same, we have one in Tennessee, Frank Niceley. Over the years he has worked to restore food freedom and monetary freedom. He's a former dairy farmer. I've been to his house. His daughter raises Mule Foot pigs. He's the real thing, a man who tells the truth and lives by it. And he has guts enough to fight a circle saw. He has been a representative in Tennessee's General Assembly & chairman of the Ag committee there. Now he's trying to step up to the senate where his vote will have more leverage. I rarely ask y'all for any favors, but I'm going to now. Would you send a small donation to Frank Niceley's campaign? That may sound cheeky of me to ask, but most of y'all will eat out at some fast food place next week, maybe with your family, and not think anything of dropping $20 or $30 or even $50. Would you forego a couple of hamburgers to help us restore liberty in Tennessee? I know, I know, y'all don't live in Tennessee, but the way things are going in those socialist states where you live, you may need a place to refugee someday. Wouldn't it be handy if Tennessee were free? Anyway, if you can see your way clear to send Frank Nicely a donation, you can send it to Friends of Frank Niceley 1023 Creek Road Strawberry Plains, Tennessee 37871 If you want to, put in a note that says The Moneychanger sent you. Y'all enjoy your weekend.
Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
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