Not even the last FOMC meeting minutes hinting at a need for more inflation could boost stocks today. Indices were mixed, but all spent three-fourths of the day underwater, and the rises came after 2:30. Dow lost 30.82 (0.23%) to 13,172.76 while the S&P500 "rose" 0.32, if you can call that a rise, to 1,413.49.

Stocks probably have one push up left before they hit the greased skids.

US dollar index lost another 38.7 basis points today & is trading at 81.523. Dollar has fallen to the July low at 81.52, & stands below its 20 & 50 day moving averages (82.61 & 82.64). Momentum is dragging it like a junk yard magnet toward the 200 DMA (80.45). It has also breached the ascending fan line from the October 2011 low. If support kicketh not in here (at that July low), then the dollar index will drop to 81.16 at least, maybe 80.75. About 79.50, below the 200 DMA, lies some middling support at the grand trading channel's center. RSI & MACD point downward as well.

'Tain't accidental. Nothing accidental happens in currencies. Probably the US Nice Government Men propping up the euro for the ECB's NGM meeting early in September.

It's working, as the euro is on a tear. Gapped up Tuesday above the prevailing downtrend line & gained again today, up 0.4% at $1.2523. On track to scale higher, but meets resistance at $1.2600 & $1.2700, not to mention the BIG downtrend line at $1.2750 today.

Ye-ouch! Japanese yen pole-vaulted an astounding 0.93% to 127.33c (US$1=Y78.54). Oddly, this comes on news of a Japanese monthly trade deficit, pure kryptonite to the export- driven Japanese economy. Yen jumped clean through the 200, 50, and 20 DMAs all the way up to the downtrend line. Clearly the Japanese NGM need to get busy selling yen.

Wow. What is going on in the aftermarket? At Comex close gold had dipped $2.50 to $1,637.40 and silver had risen only 12.8 cents to 2954.9c. But in the aftermarket gold is trading $1,654.60 and silver 2982.5c. After rising $18.70 today, platinum has risen another $14. Ditto palladium. It added $4.55 today and has floated up another $3.50.

That little mouse-burp FOMC announcement isn't causing this. It's something else, I just can't see it yet.

Never mind, there's a full head of steam in the gold & silver locomotives. Today's gold close looked cheesy, but I can allow for it backing off $1,640 resistance. That was a strong point, & so piercing that & running through $1,650, rising $17 in the aftermarket, carries a little whiff of buying panic.

Add to that: gold's 200 DMA stands at $1,650.68, and the 150 DMA (which I watch closely) at $1,642.07. Gold's aftermarket surge has carried it through both those. Now the momentum traders & other vultures who chase every rising market will jump in, thanks to that 200 DMA crossover. Gold could easily reach $1,680 by Friday.

I keep telling y'all, "Buy the breakouts!" I hope y'all are listening. Like I used to tell my children, "Don't make me go get a switch." Something about meditating on a switch VASTLY & suddenly improved their hearing acuity.

Friends, y'all know what a "waterfall" looks like on a chart, when a market just falls and falls and falls day after day so that it looks like a cross section of Niagara? Well, play that video in reverse, suck that water up into the sky, & you'll get a near notion of what silver looks like the last six days. In three days it has hammered its way from below 2800c through all that thorny resistance at 2850, brushed that aside like Johnson grass, & punched through 2900 and now is challenging 3000c! It has risen from a 2748.8c low on 15 August to 2982.5c now, soaring 233.7 cents. If that constituteth not a breakout & rally, I plumb stumped what would. Buy silver.

I've been working on a book for the last sixteen years. Well, I've written on it every month for 16 years, chronicling my family's move from suburban Memphis to sub-rural Middle Tennessee, from townies to farmers. It's called "At Home in Dogwood Mudhole," and if it won't make you laugh, cry, and gasp, your face & heart & head are made of chert-rock.

I mention it because the genuine genius graphic artist who is setting the book, making it beautiful as well as useful, told me today he'll be done next week. We could have books in our hands in a month, & the digital version sooner than that. I also mention it to whet y'all's appetites. We'll have a website up shortly, www.dogwoodmudhole.com.

While I'm at it, I remind y'all that you can see Dogwood Mudhole for yourself at our Bodacious Hoedown on 1 September, complete with field games, barbecue feast, Old Time band The Georgia Crackers, and dancing. Free, but you must make reservations with my son, Justin, at or you won't get a bite to eat.

On 22 August 1572 an assassination attempt on Huguenot leader Admiral de Coligny failed in Paris, setting the stage for the St. Bartholomew's Day massacre which began on 24 August 1572.

On 22 August 1639 Madras, India was founded by the British East India Company on a sliver of land brought from local rulers. As the Indians found out, give those British an inch & they'll take the whole country. Ask the Indians in North America. In fact, on 22 August 1770 English Captain James Cook landed on the east coast of Australia & claimed the whole continent for England. Proved to be a great idea, as on 22 August 1851 gold fields were discovered there.

On 22 August 1642 Charles "The Not-So-Bright" Stewart, king of England, raised his standard at Nottingham & called Parliament and its supporters traitors, setting off the English Civil War and eventually his own beheading.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

• Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
• NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
• NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
• NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
• What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
• One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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