The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 23 August a.d. 2012 Browse the commentary archive

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'Tis a measure of the hopelessness of Our Bosses' & Betters' management that the gassy guesses of a central bank committee (the FOMC) can actually move markets.

Another measure of that hopelessness is that markets cannot figure out what it means. Somebody SUSPECTS the Fed will inflate more, and commodities and bonds rise hand in hand, which makes no sense at all. A bond amounts to no more that a purchase of dollars in the future, dollars which will then be worth less, so exactly WHY would a rumor of more inflation raise bond prices? Commodities I understand, because inflation will float their prices. Stocks refused to follow their usual illogic and climb on inflationary hints.

Add to all that the Fed's Zero Interest Rate Policy which in Europe is now becoming a Negative Interest Rate Policy where bond investors actually pay governments to loan them money. Have any of those Braniacs in central banks considered how long periods of low to no interest rates will affect all those pension funds? Not only are the central banks and their brains bankrupt, but they will also bankrupt everybody else.

Days like this I am really glad to be nothing but a natural born fool. That frees me from ever having to think deep thoughts, like them central bankers wear themselves out a-thinkin'.

Y'all are going to LIKE today's news.,

Dollar index kept on dropping on rumors of more Quantitative Easing, i.e., money printing. Surrendered another 14.9 basis points (0.2%) to 81.36. Dollar has plunged over the cliff of support, fell through 81.50 support, and now wants to try to smash through 81. This has a bad feel about it: too much movement all at once. Not the sort of action the Nice Government Men promote.

Euro continued to ascend today, floating on clouds of gas & airy speculation. Resistance above $1.2600, back to this year's first low, stands dead ahead. Euro closed up 0.27% at $1.2563. When it entered this ecstatic fit the Euro gapped up over its closely clustered 50 & 62 day moving averages. Those gaps sooner or later get filled. But if the euro breaks the $1.2600 barrier, the big downtrend line stares down from about $1.2725.

Mercy! Did I forget to tell y'all that Gold in Euros broke out today, too, with a E1331 close? Broke out of a rising triangle, hinting further advances.

Speaking of that, Gold broke out against the Yen too, clearing its 200 day moving average & escaping a congestion area.

Yen itself gained 0.17% to 127.40 cents (Y78.49).

Now let me tote this up. I'm such an ignerent fool I've got to add it on my faingers: gold broke out against the dollar, gold broke out against the yen, gold broke out against the euro -- why, it does look like the only money left standing is -- GOLD. Well, silver, too.,

Stock charts today look like a cross section of the Titanic's hull. Dow stumbled 115.3 (0.88%) to 13,057.46. Broader S&P500 lost 0.81% (11.41) to 1,402.08. Ben the Brainiac better get busy saving Wall Street!

Before I speak a word about gold & silver, I'm going to warn y'all against enthusiasm. Easiest thing in the world is to get all worked up & cheery about a rising market, disremembering that gravity hasn't stopped working. Faster a market rises, faster it can fall, too. So while after such a long time spent in a correction these rallies make me happier than a six-year old with a new puppy, but don't let a sudden reaction cast you down. The breakouts have been made, but retracements must come to solidify those gains.

Now, I've done my duty and I can brag all I want.

Silver has risen 245.2 cents in four days, 8.8%. Today it closed up 89,8 cents at 3044.7 -- that's right, above 3000c.

In the same four days gold has risen $55.80 or 3.5%. Yesterday it closed at 1637.40, but in the aftermarket rose $17. I looked it about 11:00 p.m. ad it was already above $1,660. High today came at $1,674.72, less than six bucks off that $1,680 target I've been aiming at.

Milestone here is gold hitting the descending trendline from last August's top, not to mention cutting through the 200 DMA yesterday. I told y'all those trend followers would jump on when gold crossed that line.

Silver closed right at its 200 DMA (3051c). It has not quite touched the downtrend line from the April 2011 top, but is shy of it by only a gnat's whisker.

With both silver & gold it's reasonable to expect some pause and reaction to digest gains this huge. Reasonable, too, for both metals to require two tries to break through that huge downtrend line. More, the Relative Strength Index is wildly overbought. Somethin' got to give.

That something may be no more than a little drop, but more likely it will reach back toward the breakout points for a final kiss good-bye. Might even punish enthusiasts & trend following vultures by dropping lower than that. That gives the bull a chance to shake off all these newcomers.

ON THE OTHER HAND, should gold close over $1,680 tomorrow, or silver above 3130c, y'all get OUT of the way. Just buy fistfuls & call your mama & borrow money from her & buy some more, because closes that high mean much more upside is coming.

On 23 August 1784 the Over-The-Mountain Men in east Tennessee declared themselves the independent state of Franklin. A year later congress refused to accept them. Congress didn't have any vision then, either.

I am not making this one up. On 24 August 1926 film star Rudolph Valentino dies, causing world-wide hysteria and even a number of suicides. SPECIAL OFFER: Swiss Twenty Francs.

Pay close attention, because y'all won't see this again. The Swiss twenty franc is one of the world's most popular coins gold. Minted to the standard of the Latin Monetary Union, 0.1867 troy ounce fine gold, the Swiss twenties contain exactly as much gold as a French 20 franc, Belgian 20 franc, or Italian 20 Lira. They are so well known that survival kits for US pilots used to contain twenty francs, Swiss or otherwise.

I bought a slew of them today and must turn them over quickly, so I am willing to sell them at a tiny premium of 4.9% over their gold value. Hard to believe, but that's cheaper than one ounce Krugerrands, Maple Leaves, or American Eagles, and these are small coins.

I will sell them in minimum lots of Ten (10) coins at $326.95 each, or $3,269.50 per lot + $25 shipping, a total of $3,294.50. Whether you order one lot or 20, the sole shipping charge is $25.

If you wire payment, we will WAIVE the $25 shipping charge.

No limit on the number of lots you may order, up to the total I have on hand. When my supply sells out, I cannot sell more at this price.

Special Conditions:

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail.

We will not take orders for less than the minimums shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed.

If you want faster shipping, please send a wire (wire instructions will appear on your trade confirmation). If you wire payment, we will WAIVE & deduct the $25 shipping fee.

Spot gold basis for all prices above is $1,669.60. ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to offers@the-moneychanger.com. No phone orders, please.

Your email must include your complete name, address, & phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

Repeat, you must include your complete name, address, and phone number. Our clairvoyant quit without warning last week and we can no longer read your mind.

2. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.

3. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail.

4. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

5. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.

6. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship. Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
23-Aug-12 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,669.60 32.20 1.97%
Silver, $/oz 30.45 0.90 3.04%
Gold/Silver Ratio 54.836 -0.577 -1.04%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0182 0.0002 1.05%
Platinum 1,553.60 28.40 1.86%
Palladium 656.00 27.85 4.43%
S&P 500 1,402.08 -11.41 -0.81%
Dow 13,057.46 -115.30 -0.88%
Dow in GOLD $s 161.67 -4.62 -2.78%
Dow in GOLD oz 7.82 -0.22 -2.78%
Dow in SILVER oz 428.86 -16.94 -3.80%
US Dollar Index 81.36 -0.15 -0.18%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,669.10      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,712.50 1,727.50 1,727.50
1/2 AE 0.50 850.73 876.28 1,752.56
1/4 AE 0.25 429.54 442.31 1,769.25
1/10 AE 0.10 176.82 181.10 1,810.97
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,627.87 1,638.05 1,671.14
British sovereign 0.24 392.91 399.91 1,698.84
French 20 franc 0.19 311.62 318.62 1,706.59
Krugerrand 1.00 1,679.11 1,694.11 1,694.11
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,679.10 1,699.10 1,699.10
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 826.20 867.93 1,735.86
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 413.10 442.31 1,769.25
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 165.24 180.26 1,802.63
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,996.17 2,013.17 1,669.71
.9999 bar 1.00 1,674.94 1,685.94 1,685.94
SPOT SILVER: 30.49      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 26,000.00 27,750.00 36.27
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 25,000.00 27,500.00 35.95
90% silver coin bags 0.72 21,728.85 21,978.85 30.74
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 8,522.55 8,697.55 29.48
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 3,049.00 3,099.00 30.99
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 309.90 312.40 31.24
1 oz .999 round 1.00 30.34 31.19 31.19
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 32.09 32.74 32.74
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,553.60      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,578.60 1,618.60 1,618.60
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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