The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 19 September a.d. 2012 Browse the commentary archive

I came across this crystalline assessment of recent events from Clive Maund at http://tinyurl.com/9plwgwu

"Last week was a momentous one when the financial world passed the point of no return. Right after a German court cleared the way for massive European QE to get underway, steamrollering opposition from German politicians and the German public in the process, the Fed announced not just QE3, which was expected, but open-ended and unlimited QE and suppression of interest rates over a longer timeframe. The Fed has declared open warfare not just against the dollar and savers in general, but against the entire American middle and lower classes, who will be progressively stripped of their assets and impoverished, the better to serve the interests of the banking class and the elites at large."

That's better than e'er a natural born fool from Tennessee could put it. Y'all pay attention.

When markets flatline, they may have run out of interested investors, but they may reveal buying & selling evenly balanced but fiercely strong. If that latter case, from flatline they will burst out in either direction most suddenly. I mention this because silver & gold fit that pattern right now.

The scabby US dollar, trashy low-life of currencies, lost a tiny 8.1 basis points today (0.1%). Stopped cold at 79.40 and probably has a two or three day correction in front of it, assuming it has turned around.

Euro closed at $1.3049/E0.7663, up 0.04%. Kissed back to the downtrend line today, so tomorrow must launch skyward or risk falling back to 126 where it left a breakaway gap. Actually, maybe the euro is the trashy low-life of currencies.

Yen has fallen briskly away from the main downtrend line below the top fan line. Translation: it failed to make good its breakout, so the presumption of more upward gain is against the yen. Now that I think about it, maybe the yen is the trashy low-life of currencies. Shucks, all three are so trashy, who could pick?

Stocks showed some life today. Dow scratched around & gained 13.32 (0.1%) to 13,577.96. S&P500 added 1.73 (0.12%) to 1,461.05.

Short & sweet: stocks are setting up an epochal peak which will be followed by a crash & long bear market astonishing for its cruelty. Yes, I know the "Bernanke put" is obvious & that the government manipulates the stock market so often and so much that no real market remains, but even the mighty Bogus Ben cannot lift the weight of the world when it crashes down on his itty shoulders.

Today silver lost 12.5c to 3451.9c while gold gained 60 cents (look quick or you'll miss it!) to $1,769.00.

Yesterday gold gained 70c and silver gained 34.6c. Y'all see a pattern? They are churning in tighter & tighter ranges without progress. Buyers & sellers are tangled arm in sweaty arm, wrestling for control.

Battle lines are drawn. For the buyers to win gold must break through $1,780, and silver through 3500 cents. Sellers win if gold closes beneath $1,750 or silver beneath 3380c.

Whichever way it resolves, any gold & silver correction will be sharp but won't last long. Keep your eyes open for the buying opportunity.

On 19 September 1676 rebels burned Jamestown, Virginia in Bacon's Rebellion. They were angry because of the Royal governor's (Berkeley's) friendliness toward Indians who raided frontier settlements. Taking a clue from the Indians, 29 year old Nathaniel Bacon & his followers raided Jamestown, chased Berkeley out, and torched the capital. Bacon died from dysentery shortly afterward, but the rebellion continued for a short time. Berkeley executed 23 men by hanging. A later investigative committee (too late for those 23) report resulted in Berkeley's recall. King Charles II reportedly said, "That old fool has put to death more people in that naked country than I did here for the murder of my father."

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
18-Sep-12 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,769.00 0.60 0.03%
Silver, $/oz 34.52 -0.13 -0.36%
Gold/Silver Ratio 51.247 0.202 0.40%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0195 -0.0001 -0.39%
Platinum 1,639.90 4.60 0.28%
Palladium 671.00 4.15 0.62%
S&P 500 1,461.05 1.73 0.12%
Dow 13,577.96 13.32 0.10%
Dow in GOLD $s 158.67 0.12 0.07%
Dow in GOLD oz 7.68 0.01 0.07%
Dow in SILVER oz 393.35 1.80 0.46%
US Dollar Index 79.11 -0.08 -0.10%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,769.50      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,817.28 1,830.51 1,830.51
1/2 AE 0.50 901.94 928.99 1,857.98
1/4 AE 0.25 455.39 468.92 1,875.67
1/10 AE 0.10 187.46 191.99 1,919.91
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,725.79 1,736.46 1,771.54
British sovereign 0.24 416.54 423.54 1,799.24
French 20 franc 0.19 330.37 337.37 1,806.99
Krugerrand 1.00 1,785.43 1,800.43 1,800.43
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,779.50 1,799.50 1,799.50
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 875.90 920.14 1,840.28
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 437.95 468.92 1,875.67
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 175.18 191.11 1,911.06
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 2,116.24 2,133.24 1,769.30
.9999 bar 1.00 1,775.69 1,786.69 1,786.69
SPOT SILVER: 34.55      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 26,000.00 27,750.00 36.27
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 25,000.00 27,500.00 35.95
90% silver coin bags 0.72 24,417.25 24,667.25 34.50
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 9,720.25 9,895.25 33.54
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 3,455.00 3,505.00 35.05
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 350.50 353.00 35.30
1 oz .999 round 1.00 34.40 35.25 35.25
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 36.15 36.80 36.80
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,639.90      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,664.90 1,704.90 1,704.90
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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