Dealing in words, I am REALLY picky about using them correctly. Thus was I instantly appalled this morning listening to National Proletarian Radio (Motto: "Using your tax dollars to promote socialism & statism"). They were discussing the ongoing economic "crisis."

Crisis? Ongoing? That's a contradiction in terms, for, LO! a "crisis" is a "turning point," "a condition of instability leading to a decisive change," or, medically "the point in a serious disease's course when a decisive change occurs, either to recovery or death."

So subtly have the bureaucrats & central bankers & statist cheerleaders tortured this poor word "crisis" that it ceases to have meaning, no, worse still, it has come to signify a PERMANENT condition. Never comes the turning point, never the decisive change, only the eternal emergency, which they must manage.

And of course y'all remember, "Necessitie, the tyrant's plea?" Emergency, like war, wraps all sorts of tyranny in the toga of righteousness & patriotism. Yet when you lift the toga, underneath dwelleth still the same old fascists.

Crisis, indeed.

US dollar index, keeping its snail-ish rally running, added 5 basis points (0.6%) today to end at 79.593. Worse, it appears to be rolling over downward on the five day chart. Yen gained 0.7% to 128.54c (Y77.80), still fluttering below the downtrend line. No news until it breaks above 130 or below 127. Yawn. It's been a rough six days for the euro. Dropped 0.22% again today to close at $129.03 (E0.7750). Barely hovering above 200 day moving average (128.38) & 20 DMA (128.21). Sliding down the downtrend line. Tears lurk in its scrofulous future.

The five day Dow chart shows a head and shoulders top with a neckline about 13520. Today the Dow broke that neckline and plunged to a 13,457.49 low, closing just 0.10 point higher. This smashing fall took the down 101,.37 or 0.75%.

Today was even more cruel to the S&P500. It lost 15.3 (1.05%, whew!) to 1,441.59.

Who am I, natural born fool from Tennessee, to parse the import of these moves? Well, I am fool enough to hazard a guess. All y'all who've pinned on stocks the hopes the hopes for your retirement & later happiness in life don't get too mad at me. I've been warning y'all.

Charts for both S&P500 & Dow have traced out near identical patterns. They rose off a June low to create a long rising wedge, then bumped up & through highs for the year. Bear in mind that they might still reach for slightly higher highs, but for right now the chart unfolds only bad news. After trading in an island type pattern (suspect for a reversal), both have traded back down into their rising wedge. For the S&P500 the rising bottom boundary of that wedge (itself no happy omen) hits today about 1,425, and for the Dow about 13, 350. Closes below those push both over a very sharp cliff toward the rocks below.

Again I mention that stocks measured in gold are trading below their 200 day and 20 day moving average, having broken down after a long topping process. Might turn up for a final kiss of that 200 DMA, but might just keep on falling like your car keys down a well.

Silver & gold charts don't offer much more comfort today. Gold rose $1.70 to $1,763.80 while silver lost 3.5 cents to 3388.6c. Ratio rose ominously from 51.947 to 52.051.

Gold's five day chart shows that peak above $1,785 Friday, a crash to $1,755 over the weekend, and a recovery today to $1,775. Today it also backed off to close at the range's lower end. $1,755 is now the sling underneath as $1,775 is the canopy overhead. A break below $1,755 -- today's low was $1,758.96 -- would send gold to visit $1,720 right quickly. 20 DMA stands at $1,732.05., so a drop to $1,720 would turn gold decidedly lower.

That all important 150 day moving average is now paralleling the 200 DMA, $1,641.66 to $1,648.25. That would be a logical safety net for gold should it pierce $1,720.

Nix all the above and buy gold both-handedly if gold closes above $1,885.

Like gold's, silver's 5 day chart also shows a declining right triangle, with lower tops and a floor about 3360. Should silver break 3360c, the 300 DMA stands ready to catch it at 3240c. If that fails then 3100 - 3050c ought to stop it.

If you go in for Fibonacci or other fizzly drinks, ponder that 3200c corrects the foregoing move by 38.2%, 3100c by 50%. That offers those levels as targets, too.

This is getting to be too much fun. Delaware, Maine, and Louisiana all showed up to order At Home In Dogwood Mudhole today, not to mention our first order from Russia.

Y'all have to buy At Home in Dogwood Mudhole. You'll learn about "Straingin' Bob War,", how the dog we thought was eating our eggs turned out to be a 10 foot snake, and whether to shoot horses after they run away the first time or try to train it out of 'em.

I know I have some sensible readers in Rhode Island and Wyoming who will thoroughly enjoy this book. Where are y'all? First order from each of those states gets an additional copy free, autographed and shipped to you at no charge in plenty of time to give as a Christmas gift.

For some reason we're having problems with that bitly link. Instead, you can order the book at http://store.the-moneychanger.com/products/at-home-in-dogwood-mudhole-vol1

I remind y'all as well about our Transformations & Renewals Gathering. October 12 - 14 is drawing close, & the more we prepare, the more I'm looking forward to it. I know it's not for everybody, but if you think there might be a way to rebuild an economy -- in love -- that is just, stable, & prosperous . . . If you're tired of feeling like you're the only person left in the world with any integrity, maybe Transformations is for you. Visit the website. http://transformationsgathering.com/

On 26 September 1513 Spanish explorer Vasco Nunez de Balboa found the Pacific Ocean when he crossed the Isthmus of Panama. The Ocean had been misplaced by the Mayans several years earlier.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

• Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
• NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
• NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
• NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
• What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
• One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

For complete details on how to buy from us or sell to us, please click here.