The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 26 September a.d. 2012 Browse the commentary archive

Bailing out the banks is not a quiet or an easy business. Some of the "realizers" who see what's coming are raising a ruckus.

In Greece, where an ECB/IMF dictated austerity "reform" has already been put in place, people are desperate. Hundreds of thousands marched today in protest.

In Spain, the moment draweth nigh when the Spanish government must tell the ECB how much it needs to bail out Spanish banks and itself. Whoops -- but first, it must agree to the ECB-dictated austerity "reform." Tens of thousands of Spaniards, nervously eying what's happened in Greece, marched in protest. Head of the northwestern region of Catalonia is calling for a referendum to secede from Spain. (Why isn't he governor of Tennessee?)

Of course, bailing out the banks creates many new jobs, for more policemen are needed to beat up protestors.

Bailing out the banks is not easy, but it must be done. I forget WHY, but it must be done.

I like it better the way we do it in the US, where the Fed just keeps on printing money & sends us all down the drain quietly & without a lot of fuss & fanfare.

Y'all know what I'd like to see? I'd like to see one of those pointy-toed bankers or pointy-headed central bankers forced to put in one single day's real work. I think throwing hay would do it, following a trailer in the field picking up 80 lb. hay bales & throwing em up on the trailer to be stacked. Say, from about 7:30 a.m. till about 11:30 p.m., on a 95 degree day, but with breaks for dinner & supper, of course. I'm not inhuman. They could even wear gloves.

Time they got finished, they'd know better than to call what they do "work."

Wait, come to think of it, we need to give them an altogether new career breaking rocks permanently. And a bright orange jumpsuit to go with the job.

Enough of this fun, there's serious news to face. A group in England warns that the widespread drought in Russia and the US threatens a world wide bacon shortage. And those central bankers think a financial crisis is bad. Wait till they live through a bacon shortage! I'm not worried. We've got hogs galore, & make our own bacon -- no chemicals.

On the longer term chart the US dollar index has spent the last 9 days rallying up to the mid-channel support it fell through mid-September, about 79.75 today, It rose 23.8 basis points (0.31%) today to 79.90, but every gambler & his cousin will be selling the dollar at 80. Since the US Federal Reserve, the ECB, & the Bank of Japan have all recently announced more money printing, sanitized under the newly invented name of "Quantitative Easing," they are most likely co-ordinating their currencies' exchange rates so that they all lose value at about the same rate. That way you ignorant hoi polloi won't catch on what they're doing and avoid it by buying silver or gold or goats or anything that can't be debased by central bankers.

Here's something remarkable, witnessing to the manipulation I imply above. Remember I told y'all some time ago that central bankers' minds work in target ranges, and I bet their target range for the euro/$ and Yen/Dollar was 75 - 80. Today the yen closed at 128.69 cents to Y100, and the euro at $1.2857. Yep, that means $1 = Y77.71= E0.7779. Sharp marksmanship, Nice Government Men!

That rioting in Greece & Spain just depresses the tar out of stock investors. European indices all dropped. In the US stock indices tried to bounce, but were only as successful as an anvil dropped from 6 inches.

Shockwaves from the economic quakes in Europe rattled windows on Wall Street today. Something about seeing police beating hundreds of protestors with truncheons saps investors' optimism.

Dow lost 43.96 (0.33%) to 13,413.59 while the S&P500 trotted along even faster, losing 8.25 (0.57%) to 1,433.34.

In spite of this, the Dow in Gold Dollars is signaling that it intends to rally just a little. Today it rose to but not through its 200 DMA, and its MACD indicator turned positive. That hints gold has some tough days in front of it.

As yesterday I feared, gold broke $1,755 support & tumbled. Today gold lost $1,320 to $1,750.60, while silver curiously refused to follow, closing on 3/10 cent lower at 3388.3. Odd.

Gold never broke $1,760 until nearly 8:00 a.m. Eastern time, then played the waterfall until 8:30, hitting the bottom pool at $1,738.58. It climbed on to vibrate between $1,750 & $1,740 until about 1:30 when it gapped up above $1,750, then closed 60 cents above $1,750. High came at $1,765.35.

That $1,740 level is the first small support below gold, and stretches to $1,720. Then comes $1,700 support, and beneath that the 200 day moving average ($1648.23) and 150 DMA (1,641.64). Also, the downtrend line, which coming down from above will act as support, stands now about $1,650 & dropping. For the Fibonacci-minded, a 38.2% correction happens at $1,712.66, a 50% at $1,688.77.

Any of those might catch gold's fall & end it. However, this shouldn't last too long, maybe a couple of weeks. The upcoming US election also clouds the outlook, since it's never quite clear how the public might react, although it will be clearly illogical.

Silver broke support above 3360c and on gold's same timetable dropped to a 3334 low. Oddly, it refused to capitulate, and after trading sideways until 11:00 a.m., gapped up about 1:30, made a high at 3402c, and ended the day only 3/10 cent lower.

Support around 3350c is proving stronger than expected. Expect silver to catch & stop falling around 3250 or 3100c. Silver has been hugely overbought, so this correction is normal, predictable, & natural.

Don't panic. Markets go up, markets go down, our job is to identify and ride the primary trend, the tide, and not to let the little waves & storms confuse us. This correction merely offers us an opportunity to buy silver & gold On Sale.

On 26 September the Parthenon in Athens was destroyed in a war between Turkey & Venice. The Turks were using it as a powder magazine when a cannon shot hit it. Today, instead of the Turks & Venetians, the banks are destroying Greece.

Overnight Rhode Island & Wyoming finally ordered At Home In Dogwood Mudhole, along with Croatia & Andorra. That concludes my Special 2 for 1 offer, & I deeply appreciate your response.

Don't misunderstand: we are still selling the book before its 15 October publication date, & hope the rest of y'all will order. If you don't, how will you ever learn about "The Yankee Christmas Gift," "The Rights & Wrong of Southern Barbeque," "Thanksgiving in Jail," or "The Great Chicken Slaughter." I will personally autograph all pre-publication orders.

Once again, I warn y'all: At Home In Dogwood Mudhole will make you snort, wince, laugh, weep, and jump up and down. It won't bore you, and I'm willing to put my money where my book is: you buy it & read it, and if you can truly say it didn't move you to do anything but keep turning pages waiting for something to happen, I will refund your money and you can keep the book to throw at mad dogs.

For some reason we're having problems with that bitly link. Instead, you can order the book at http://store.the-moneychanger.com/products/at-home-in-dogwood-mudhole-vol1

I reckon I am what folks in the South used to call a "plunger." I take risks, and that's what Catherine Austin Fitts and I are doing with our Transformations Gathering. Maybe we're flying too close to the sun, but we'll all have a fine time doing it. Maybe in the end there's no way out of the economic & social mess the world finds itself in, but maybe we can find new & faithful ways to build an just & prosperous economy, in love, to replace the economy presently flying apart. Maybe you would like to join us. Check out http://transformationsgathering.com/

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
26-Sep-12 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,750.60 -13.20 -0.75%
Silver, $/oz 33.88 -0.00 -0.01%
Gold/Silver Ratio 51.666 -0.385 -0.74%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0194 0.0001 0.75%
Platinum 1,634.40 2.60 0.16%
Palladium 624.70 -15.00 -2.34%
S&P 500 1,433.34 -8.25 -0.57%
Dow 13,413.59 -43.96 -0.33%
Dow in GOLD $s 158.39 0.69 0.44%
Dow in GOLD oz 7.66 0.03 0.44%
Dow in SILVER oz 395.88 -1.26 -0.32%
US Dollar Index 79.90 23.80 42.42%
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SPOT GOLD: 1,751.90      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,795.70 1,812.45 1,812.45
1/2 AE 0.50 892.96 919.75 1,839.50
1/4 AE 0.25 450.86 464.25 1,857.01
1/10 AE 0.10 185.60 190.08 1,900.81
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,708.63 1,719.21 1,753.94
British sovereign 0.24 412.40 416.40 1,768.89
French 20 franc 0.19 327.08 331.08 1,773.32
Krugerrand 1.00 1,767.67 1,782.67 1,782.67
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,761.90 1,781.90 1,781.90
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 867.19 910.99 1,821.98
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 433.60 464.25 1,857.01
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 173.44 189.21 1,892.05
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 2,095.19 2,112.19 1,751.84
.9999 bar 1.00 1,758.03 1,769.03 1,769.03
SPOT SILVER: 33.96      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 26,000.00 27,750.00 36.27
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 25,000.00 27,500.00 35.95
90% silver coin bags 0.72 24,134.83 24,384.83 34.10
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 9,544.73 9,719.73 32.95
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 3,395.50 3,445.50 34.46
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 344.55 347.05 34.71
1 oz .999 round 1.00 33.81 34.66 34.66
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 35.56 36.21 36.21
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,634.40      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,659.40 1,699.40 1,699.40
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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