This was the day the stock market broke. Dow smashed support at 13,250 & fell another 150 points. Has lost about 500 points in three days. Closed today down 243.36 (1.86%) while the S&P500 puked back 20.71 (1.44%) to 1,413,11.

What might break stocks' fall? The 200 day moving average at 12,966? The lateral support that lurketh there as well? The FOMC committee's announcement tomorrow? If the Dow breaks that 200 DMA, don't count on seeing higher prices for, Oh, six or eight years.

Currencies: US$1.00 = Y79.83 = E0.7703.

Euro gapped down today & lost 0.62% to end at $1.2982. Didn't close below its 20 DMA, first tripwire proving a reversal, but sure punched a big hole in it. A close below $1.2900 puts gravity in the driver's seat.

Yen probably completed its plunge today, having left behind a runaway gap above and yesterday an exhaustion gap. Rose 0.16% today to 125.27 cents per hundred yen. Ought to trade sidewise & higher for a few days at the least.

US dollar index was pounding & hammering on that 80.00 door today. High was 80.062, but the buck couldn't quite close at that lofty spot, so ended at 79.957, up 0.52%. I keep asking myself, "What does the dollar market know that I don't know? What is it foreseeing?" Only answer I get is, "A more costly dollar," for the nonce at least.

The waterfall is pouring over the cliff for silver & gold. Gold today lost $16.80 to end at $1,708.30 & silver gave up 45.9 cents to 3176.8c.

That close leaves gold below its 50 DMA ($1,724) & therefore (as the 50 DMA is often the target of gold corrections) rings the bell to remind us an opportunity to buy is coming soon. Might be here already. I'd rather to give it a day or two to see where it will settle. $1,690-ish could catch gold, or $1,650 - $1,660. I remind y'all & myself not to allow the better to become the enemy of the good. Somewhere here the market is handing you a sweet chance to buy cheap gold & silver. Don't get greedy. Bulls get rich, & bears get rich, but pigs get slaughtered.

Silver sank below its 300 DMA (3200c) today as we have so long awaited. Just below us at 3097c lies the 200 DMA, with lateral support at 3050c. I think it will stop between here & there. Today I was reading some fellow who believes it might revisit that 2650c line, but I have to doubt that. Of course, I'm only a natural born fool from Tennessee, & nobody is paying me the big bucks to prognosticate for 'em, but I have to doubt silver will fall that low.

On this day in 4004 BC, according to the calculations of Archbishop Ussher, the world was created.

On 23 October 42 BC in the Roman republican civil wars occurred the Second Battle of Philippi. Mark Antony & the wily Octavian Caesar defeated Brutus' army & Brutus committed suicide. It was the end of the republic & the beginning of the empire -- once Octavian figured out how to get rid of Mark Antony & rename himself Divi Filius Augustus.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

• Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
• NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
• NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
• NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
• What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
• One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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