The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 16 November a.d. 2012 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  9-Nov 16-Nov Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 3,259.00 3,236.10 -22.90 -0.7
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,730.30 1,714.30 -16.00 -0.9
Gold/silver ratio 53.093 52.974 -0.120 -0.2
Silver/gold ratio 0.0188 0.0189 0.0000 0.2
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 153.11 151.80 -1.31 -0.9
Dow in gold ounces 7.41 7.34 -0.06 -0.9
Dow in Silver ounces 393.23 389.00 -4.23 -1.1
Dow Industrials 12,815.39 12,588.31 -227.08 -1.8
S&P500 1,379.85 1,359.88 -19.97 -1.4
US dollar index 81.05 81.19 0.14 0.2
Platinum 1,554.40 1,559.00 4.60 0.3
Palladium 610.25 625.75 15.50 2.5

'Twas a wild ride this week. Silver & gold decided to spend a bit more time building a springboard, platinum & palladium edged up, stocks hit the greased skids, and the US dollar index held on above 81 and even gained some.

The simple recitation of the US dollar index' close at 81.194, up 14.3 basis points doesn't even come close to depicting today's performance. The Dollar index in fact smashed 81.20 resistance today which had bound it all week long. High today was 81.455. The wave up from yesterday's 81.95 low looks impulsive to me, which says that the dollar has embarked on a rally. It may be slower than a kid going for a whipping, but rally it will.

To losses Wednesday & Thursday totalling 2.14% the yen today added another 0.22% loss & closed at 122.77c/Y100. Looking at those two gigantic gaps -- no, tears -- in the chart leaves not much doubt the Japanese Nice Government Men pulled the plug not only by their public pronouncements (everything every politician says about currencies is planned & vetted) but also by covert market sales. Mercy! I have a suspicious nature.

Y'all remember the euro? That scabrous Franken-currency cobbled together to force centralization & control on the European member states? Well it's sicker'n a dog eating strychnined steak. Fell today 0.28% to $1.2743, and the best thing you can say for it is that it hasn't hit $1.2000 again lately. But y'all hang around. More skeletons & half-rotten corpses will fall out of more Euro-closets bringing more bad surprises. Stay away from euros.

Currencies: US$1=Y81.33=E0.7847=0.03090 oz silver = 0.00058 oz gold.

Picture in your mind IguaƧu or Niagara or Victoria Falls, & you'll have a pretty tight grasp on stocks' course the last two weeks. "Collapse" doesn't quite bear the burden of description, but comes nigh. From 13,661 to 12,588.31, almost 8%.

Today, though, stocks enjoyed an up-day. Dow gained 45.93 (0.37%) to 12,588.31. S&P500 gained 6.55 (0.48%) to 1,359.88.

With few exceptions stocks have been falling since early October in a classic impulsive downleg. They crashed through their 20, 50, & then 200 day moving averages, & now the 20, having fallen already below the 50, is fixing to smash through the 200. The phrase, "Dead man walking" comes to mind.

After this much plunging you'd think, "Surely, surely, some little rally must come." You'd look in vain until now. This downleg could have ended yesterday, so the Dow ought to rally, maybe as high as the 200 DMA (12,992).

Down below, well, there's not much support until 12,450. Then comes the last really big low in June at 12,035.

Think with me a moment not about Monday or next week or next month, or even next year. Think rather about the next five or ten years. Picture stocks eroding down in gigantic, long-lived dives, then pitifully seeking to rally for months and months, only to be slapped down again.

That's a bear market, a primary downtrend. That is what you are watching. That is what you will see unfold. That is why I keep telling y'all to SELL stocks & put the proceeds into silver & gold.

But then, y'all all know I'm just a natural born fool from Tennessee living WAAAAY out on the edge of the bell-shaped curve, and it ain't nothing but a coincidence that all the time I've been warning y'all about stocks since 2000 they really have been dangerous. Don't listen to me. Shoot, y'all listen to me & I'm liable to convince you silver gold really are money and that green paper is just a con-game. Where'd y'all be then? Why, un-American!

SILVER & GOLD gainsaid each other today, silver down and gold up. Silver dropped 30.4 cents to 3236.1c while gold gained $1.00 to $1,714.30.

Mighty quiet day. Gold ranged a little less than $11 from its $1,705.79 low to its $1,716.30 high, but support at $1,705 again checked its fall & reversed it's course. That left another V-bottom on the chart, & possible firm reversal to the upside next week.

Silver's five day chart blows hot and cold out of both sides of its mouth. It's having a political moment.

Silver hit a low Monday & Tuesday around 3210, climbed to a peak on Wednesday at 3290c, then rolled down to another low today at 3207c. That could be a rounding top, or a double bottom reversal.

Until silver violates the neckline of the head & shoulders-ey formation built since 22 October, which now stands about 3170c, it will continue rising. Analogous spot for gold is $1,705, struck today. If I am right about those two upside-down head and shoulders formations, then both silver & gold ought to continue climbing next week.

Right, and what if they don't? What if they break those lines? Then you'd better reckon with a trip back to the last low, $1,672.50 & 3066c, & an even BETTER buying opportunity than you have now.

Unless both metals fall & tumble like Humpty Dumpty, I expect to see them rise briskly into year end, and keep on marching higher through every barrier and way-new highs by spring.

Time to buy, not to quake in your booties.

On 16 November f1798 the Kentucky legislature NULLIFIED the federal Alien & Sedition Acts and asserting the authority of states to declare federal laws unconstitutional. (Where are those Kentuckians when you need them today?)

On this black and ever-to-be-mourned day in 1914 the Federal Reserve system formally opened. It's been sucking the lifeblood out of us ever since. SPECIAL OFFER: US GOLD & US MORGAN DOLLARS

Pay close attention, because y'all won't see this ever again.

I am cleaning out my inventory and have a few US $20 Liberty gold coins (before 1908), a few pre-1905 Morgan silver dollars, and a very few modern US $10 commemorative golds.

Prices are based on gold spot at $1,714.30 & silver spot at $32.361. All lots are sold subject to the special conditions below, no exceptions.

Lot # 1. Three (3) US $20 gold pieces pre-1908 Liberty type. Although I believe these coins are much better than VG (Very Good) grade, I am selling them at that. Some have a little dirt on them, but I do not clean coins & do not recommend cleaning them. Dirt only shows they are unashamedly genuine. Sold as is, at a six percent premium (6%) over the value of the 0.9675 gold content ($20 golds do NOT contain one ounce of gold). I am not selling these as collector's (numismatic) coins but as bullion coins, as is, no picky-picky. I am selling you exactly what I would buy and hold myself. Next grade up (Extremely Fine) costs $1,845 at wholesale, so these are a ridiculous bargain. One lot is three coins each at $1,758.00 for a total of $5,274.00 + $25 shipping or a grand total of $5,299.00. I have only seven lots, and cannot re-order at these prices.

Lot # 2. I have a few VG or better pre-1905 Morgan silver dollars. Each contains 0.765 troy ounce fine silver. Wholesale on these coins today is $32.50, and I am selling those I have for $34 each. I have only TWO (2) lots of Sixty (60) coins each at $34 for a total of $2,040 plus $25 shipping or a grand total of $2,065.

Lot # 3. I have Twenty-eight (28) more pre-1905 VG or better Morgan silver dollars at $34 each, PLUS Three (3) each modern (after 1980) US $10 gold commemoratives containing 0.48375 troy ounce of gold. I'll sell those at 3.5% over their gold melt value. I have one lot only of 28 ea pre-1905 VG+ Morgan dollars @ $34/ea. PLUS Three (3) each US $10 gold commems at $858.30 for a total of $3,526.90 plus $25 shipping, a grand total of $3,551.90.

Special Conditions:

If I have miscounted my inventory and come up short, the LAST person to order will receive fewer coins, at a price reduced to reflect the smaller quantity.

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail.

We will not take orders for less than the minimums shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed.

If you want faster shipping, please send a wire (wire instructions will appear on your trade confirmation). ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to No phone orders, please.

Your email must include your complete name, address, & phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

Repeat, you must include your complete name, address, and phone number. Our clairvoyant quit without warning last week and we can no longer read your mind.

2. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.

3. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail.

4. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

5. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.

6. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship. Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
16-Nov-12 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,714.30 1.00 0.1
Silver, $/oz 32.36 -0.30 -0.9
Gold/Silver Ratio 52.974 0.036 0.1
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0189 -0.0002 -0.9
Platinum 1,559.00 16.90 1.1
Palladium 625.75 -3.30 -0.5
S&P 500 1,359.88 -22.50 -1.6
Dow 12,588.31 -2.35 -0.0
Dow in GOLD $s 151.80 -0.10 -0.1
Dow in GOLD oz 7.34 -0.00 -0.1
Dow in SILVER oz 389.00 3.55 0.9
US Dollar Index 81.19 0.17 0.2
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,712.50      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,762.16 1,772.44 1,772.44
1/2 AE 0.50 872.87 902.06 1,804.12
1/4 AE 0.25 436.43 459.59 1,838.37
1/10 AE 0.10 179.71 187.52 1,875.19
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,670.20 1,680.59 1,714.54
British sovereign 0.24 403.12 407.12 1,729.49
French 20 franc 0.19 319.72 323.72 1,733.92
Krugerrand 1.00 1,738.19 1,755.19 1,755.19
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,722.50 1,737.50 1,737.50
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 847.69 890.50 1,781.00
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 423.84 453.81 1,815.25
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 169.54 184.95 1,849.50
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 2,048.07 2,065.07 1,712.76
.9999 bar 1.00 1,718.49 1,729.49 1,729.49
SPOT SILVER: 32.25      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 30,500.00 32,500.00 42.48
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 30,000.00 32,000.00 41.83
90% silver coin bags 0.72 23,058.75 23,308.75 32.60
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 9,322.00 9,522.00 32.28
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 3,217.00 3,265.00 32.65
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 327.50 330.00 33.00
1 oz .999 round 1.00 32.10 32.80 32.80
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 33.75 34.45 34.45
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,559.00      
Platinum Platypus 1.00 1,569.00 1,609.00 1,609.00
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Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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