Sometimes I feel like the only sane person in the whole durned lunatic asylum. Silver & gold came right back today while Republicans & Democrats dashed hopes of dodging the fiscal cliff by sniping at each other. The corruption, self-centeredness, & self-serving waffling from business, finance, and government are all undermining all loyalty & confidence from the core supporters of US society, namely, the middle class. I sweat bullets & weep thinking about what sort of hideous false prophet they are paving a road for, loudly & repetitively spouting his nostrums so that the weak, weary, & distrusting flock to him -- not because he has solutions indeed, but because he consistently preaches the same line, like Hitler, Lenin, Stalin, Roosevelt, Mussolini, Peron. Their solutions never worked, they just kept on repeating them so long that folks believed they might, and because they were so desperate to hear ANYBODY with a plan.
Having hacked up that bone from my throat, I'll look at markets now.
The scabby, ragged US dollar turned down again today, having spent all it could beg on yesterday's drunk. It quickly sank again to the gutter bottom just above 80 at 80.021. Last four days have left behind a head & shoulders top with a neckline bare basis points above 80.
Eight month chart hovers just above catastrophe. Words like "seismic event" and "Krakatoa" come to mind. 50 DMA stands at 80.08, & just a few basis points under that some long term support. Once the dollar falls though that all those gamblers who had been shorting the euro until the NGM shooed them off will rush to short the dollar. Won't be pretty. RSI & MACD chant together in a Russian bass "Down down down DOWN!"
Euro rose a scootch today, up 0.15% to $1.2978. Trying to peek through the downtrend line & stands barely above its clustered moving averages. Likely to run to $1.3150 at least, maybe higher. Will stink just as foully at $1.3150 as it does here, no, worse.
Yen ended down 0.04% at 121.80 cents/Y100. I imagine some sort of understanding exists among the gentlemen central bankers that the 120 - 118 number is about as low as the yen will be allowed to fall.
US$1=Y82.10=E0.7705=0.029114 oz Ag=0.000579 oz Au.
Stocks beat the 13,000 resistance today, & so will run a little higher. Dow gained 36.71 (0.28%) to 13,021.83. S&P500 added 6.02 to 1,415.95 (up 0.43%).
Gain today was more than revealed by a 36.71 point skip. Stocks broke through the downtrend line left by their October - end-November fall, plus crossing above their 20 DMA (12,890) & 200 DMA (12,995). That sets the Dow up for a test of the 50 DMA (13,209) and resistance at 13,300.
Investors are all besotted with hopeful economic news, but just like a drunk in a bind, any old alcohol will do, it doesn't have to be single malt Scotch. Thus the on again, off again fiscal cliffs talk thrills them, or if that fails, housing climbing some meaningless fraction of a point. If it wasn't that, it's be stray dogs.
Maybe I am just a sourpuss. Maybe, or maybe I see that fundamental purging & repairs to the economy have not even been attempted. Just the opposite, the flood of money has prevented them. Yet the answer out of the Potomac swamp will be the same: another wave of liquidity. Print until we die, & after us, the flood!
Can't be fixed.
Let us now turn our minds, befouled by government, finance, & nasty, wet stupidity to that bright spot in today's markets, silver & gold. Yea, let us turn that direction, & bask a while in relief.
Gold gained $10.70 to $1,727.20 (up 0.62%), nor did silver lag behind, up 66.4 cents to 3434.8c, a 1.97% gain.
Solid action, controverting, gainsaying, & nailing the lid on any downside outcome.
Gold needed to climb over $1,720 - $1,725 resistance. Good enough, well done, but still must wipe away yesterday's shame by closing above $1,740 -- reasonable chance of accomplishing that in the sunny morning.
On a four month chart Gold has validated the imperishable (Oh, I hope I don't have to eat THAT word) strength & solidity of that neckline support around $1,705. It leapt up today, vaulting over the 20 DMA (1,722.93) with ease.
In the teeth of yesterday's fright, the market has spoken, and it said, "No further!"
Silver's fall yesterday pictures a classic spike bottom Today it began rising at the New York open, and by 9:30 gapped up, then gapped again, from 3390c to 3425c. Made one little dip to 3395 late in the day, unless that is some artifact on my chart, then snapped right back.
Four month chart tells an even stronger tale, with silver posting its highest interday price since October 11, 3449c. Silver stands way above all its moving averages (50 = 3318, 200 = 3098, 20 = 3277, 300=3127). Little to say here outside, "Next stop, 3550c!"
Of course, I could be wrong, being nothin' more than a natural born fool from Tennessee. But y'all know, now, that sometimes in the play the fool turns out to be the wisest person around? Think about King Lear. But shucks! We don't have no kings in Tennessee, only fools.
Buy silver & gold. A very big & long running rally is just now starting. Buy.
On 29 November 1775 Sir James Jay invented invisible ink, but it never caught on. He couldn't see what he had written.
On 29 November 1864 about 45 minutes from where I am sitting took place the Battle of Spring Hill, Tennessee (south of Thompson's Station) where Hood without excuse let Schofield's Union Army escape. That mistake would destroy the Army of Tennessee, combined with Hood's fool attack at Franklin on 30 November.
On 29 November 1898 was Born Clive Staples Lewis in Belfast, Ireland. When he was 32 he got onto a motorcycle an atheist, and finished the ride a Christian. A professor at Oxford, he was a novelist, poet, medievalist, critic, essayist, & Christian apologist. A new reader can grab hold of Lewis almost anywhere with delight, but his greatest novels were in his Space Trilogy, Out of the Silent Planet, Perelandra, and That Hideous Strength. Then again, The Lion, The Witch, & The Wardrobe isn't bad, either.
On 29 November 1916 the US declared martial law in the Dominican Republic. You'll probably wonder why the US was in the Dominican Republic declaring anything, and so did the Dominicans.
On 29 November 1963 President Lyndon "Landslide" Johnson appointed Chief Justice Earl Warren head of a commission to cover up -- whoop! Did I say that? Make that "investigate" -- Kennedy's assassination.
Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger