The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 5 December a.d. 2012 Browse the commentary archive

Did y'all hear the news today? The Republicans & Congress are near a deal on the fiscal cliff. Whoops -- no, no, make that NOT near a deal on the fiscal cliff. Wait, wait, make that a fiscal-cliff crazed Tennessee moneychanger appeared in Washington, DC & pushed the president AND congress over the fiscal cliff.

Rather than thinking about goofball stuff like congress & the fiscal cliff, Susan & I went today to visit friends who run Tennessee's only Grade A goat dairy & make cheese. They built an elegant & beautiful cheese cave and now offer aged as well as fresh cheese. Trained in Germany, I am one of Tennessee's only Grade A Cheese Snobs, & refuse even to look at Kraft "cheese" or any cheese smothered by wrapping in cellophane. Their Tenasi Tomme ranks with the best cheese I have eaten anywhere in the world. We bought three big wheels, but unfortunately y'all (who by now are all salivating) can't buy it over the internet. But you can visit Bonnie Blue Farm at their website,

Wow. People who take pride in what they do, & do it well. Now that's the BIG news for the day.

Although the US dollar rallied a modest 15.3 basis points (0.2%) today to 79.827, it didn't change its slouchy posture or dreadful future. More, it didn't affect other markets much. Silly stock market for more than a year has been nearly lockstepping opposite the dollar, which makes as much sense as buying a bicycle for a fish. Apparently gullible investors believe that a depreciating dollar is good for the economy. This is a proposition so cosmically stupid I hardly know where to begin refuting it. Piteeful.

Yen lost more today than it gained yesterday, 0.59%, to close at 121.31c. Looks like it's being slapped back & forth between manipulators & speculators.

Euro lost 0.17% to $1.3071, still dancing along that downtrend line indecisively, unable to advance or fall. RSI looks a bit past its "sell-by" date, but the MACD gives it a little more room.

US$1=Y82.43=E0.7651=0.000 591 oz Au=0.030 411 oz Ag.

Stocks rose today, but without changing anything. Wasted effort, burning up buying power. Dow gained 82.71 (0.64%) to 13,034.49. Look at the 5 day chart & you'll see no progress, only a double top with Monday's high (posted today) and a broadening top. Stocks started rising about 11:00 off their low, but were stopped again at 13,080. Nothing changes until stocks beat that mark.

S&P500 jiggled along way behind the Dow, up 2.23 (0.16%) to 1,409.28. Today's top at 1,415 was a little lower than Monday's & Tuesday's 1,420. This also resembles a broadening top. I don't know sic 'em from come here, but this chart would not make me feel warm, comfy, & ready to take a nap.

Nor do the gold & silver charts leave me feeling comfy. They appeared confused today, silver up 14.9 cents to 3288.3c while gold backed off $2 to $1,692.40.

Both charts show a possible reversal pattern, but only if . . .

Gold trades tomorrow not lower than $1,690. Gold left behind a V bottom today, but no more enthusiastic than a condemned man is about capital punishment.

Gold's low came at $1,685.22, about $3 lower than yesterday, & not an encouraging sign. High reached only the $1,705 resistance ($1,706.60) but slipped quickly back.

Silver acted stronger, but also made a new low for the move at 3251c, also with a V-bottom that finished the day above yesterday's lows.

What continues to scratch the inside of my skull is why silver is holding up so much better than gold. Why? Believe it or not, that makes me suspect we haven't yet seen this move's bottom. Why? Because in corrections silver is usually weaker than gold -- smaller market, more volatile up and down. So silver holding up implies that at some point not long distant, it will break to catch up with gold's plunge.

The other interpretation is that silver's strength is genuine. In that case, silver's divergence from gold implies metals have not much further to fall.

No, I don't know which. Just have to wait until the market makes its mind known.

On 5 December 1848 US president (and Tennessean) James K. Polk triggered the Gold Rush of '49 by confirming that gold had been discovered in California.


Well, I offered to give a quarter to anybody who went to, read the chapter "Pig Persuader"& didn't laugh. Now, y'all won't believe this but I did in fact get an email from someone who said he didn't laugh. Said he had already been through such things himself. Well, I

It didn't hurt my feelings, though. I went through all that stuff my very self, and it STILL makes me laugh.

But y'all go to & read it for yourself. I ain't Mark Twain or Barack Obama, but if you read it and it doesn't make you laugh, I'll send you a quarter, too.

And while you're there, think about all those looming Christmas gifts you haven't bought yet. Might buy the gift of a good read for 'em. Y'all know it's good: it was made in Tennessee.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
5-Dec-12 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,692.40 -2.00 -0.12%
Silver, $/oz 32.88 0.15 0.46%
Gold/Silver Ratio 51.467 -0.295 -0.57%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0194 0.0001 0.57%
Platinum 1,581.40 1.30 0.08%
Palladium 681.10 4.85 0.72%
S&P 500 1,409.28 2.23 0.16%
Dow 13,034.49 82.71 0.64%
Dow in GOLD $s 159.21 1.21 0.77%
Dow in GOLD oz 7.70 0.06 0.77%
Dow in SILVER oz 396.39 0.72 0.18%
US Dollar Index 79.83 0.15 0.19%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,697.90      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,750.53 1,757.33 1,757.33
1/2 AE 0.50 865.42 891.40 1,782.80
1/4 AE 0.25 436.95 449.94 1,799.77
1/10 AE 0.10 179.87 184.22 1,842.22
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,655.96 1,666.28 1,699.94
British sovereign 0.24 399.69 403.69 1,714.89
French 20 franc 0.19 317.00 321.00 1,719.32
Krugerrand 1.00 1,721.67 1,736.67 1,736.67
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,707.90 1,727.90 1,727.90
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 840.46 882.91 1,765.82
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 420.23 449.94 1,799.77
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 168.09 183.37 1,833.73
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 2,030.61 2,047.61 1,698.28
.9999 bar 1.00 1,703.84 1,714.84 1,714.84
SPOT SILVER: 32.93      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 26,000.00 27,750.00 36.27
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 25,000.00 27,500.00 35.95
90% silver coin bags 0.72 23,505.63 23,755.63 33.22
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 9,521.13 9,696.13 32.87
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 3,292.50 3,342.50 33.43
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 334.25 336.75 33.68
1 oz .999 round 1.00 32.78 33.63 33.63
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 34.53 35.18 35.18
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,581.40      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,606.40 1,646.40 1,646.40
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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