Did y'all hear the latest about Justin Bieber? He had a brain transplant, from a cocker spaniel, & all his friends say it's improved his IQ. And what about Jennifer Anniston? She had a brain IMplant, because she was born without one. Her friends say she can now beat Jennifer Lopez at Scrabble. I know all this is true, because I got it right out of People magazine at the grocery store while I was waiting to check out.
Now if the above coming from me seems puerile, contemptible, risible, & despicable, how does it sound any better coming from anybody with an IQ higher than a radish's? I'm not going to get in an argument with popular culture, because it has no more culture than pasteurized yogurt. Nor is it popular, it just merchandising. As long as this tripe rivets large numbers of Americans, however, they will continue to fall for pointless dramas like the Fiscal Cliff & the Debt Ceiling & the War on Terror & other claptrap pouring out of Washington. And Washington will continue to steal their honor, the wealth, & their freedom. Whoa! Wait! I gotta run! It's almost time for American Idol.
Back to markets. Silver & gold might have bottomed Friday & today, but more of that anon. First let us torture our spotless minds by contemplating the sorry fiat currencies.
US dollar index hit its 200 DMA (80.83) Friday & wilted like an orchid in the desert. Ended the day at 80.222, down 41.1 basis points (0.53%). Yet it remaineth outside its former downtrend line and having begun an uptrend. Dollar has given up another 10 basis points in aftermarket trading. Should it close below its 20 DMA (79.83), 'twould reverse.
The euro has broken down, leaving a gap behind. This day it tried to rally to the 20 DMA ($1.3135) but could not pass. Will probably trade up enough to fill that gap, then fall again.
The yen has been plunging over the waterfall in one great cataract since October opened its chilly arms. Got more holes in it than my wool pants after my wife feeds them to the moths. Now bouncing at prices not witnessed since June 2010, surely a bottom must live here somewhere? Today it gained 0.45% to 113.95c/Y100. Not anything I want to trade or own.
US$=Y87.76=E0.7621=0.033 298 oz Ag=0.000 607 oz Au.
Stocks have gotten their feet tangled in the barbed wire at 13,450, & can't shake it loose. Dow today scraped off 50.92 (0.38%) to 13,384.29. S&P500 was skinned 4.58 (0.31%) to 1,461.89.
Stocks are tracing out another doomed rising wedge, and before this ends may pierce 14,000. It will be the swan-song of stocks for a long, long time.
Charts of the Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver are jerky and gappy. View them here http://bit.ly/119TkBF and here http://bit.ly/TdQcP2
The retreat from thatt straight up rise looks too weak & drippy to be a flag, but what else is it? If 'tis a flag then the move could move as far as it has already since the measuring rule is "flags always fly at half staff."
On the other hand, it might be nothing but a double top, juiced by all the year end trading & selling. It's a bear market for stocks. Odd favor way more downside.
Metals spake with forkéd tongue today. Gold fell $2.60 to $1,645.50 while silver rose 13.6 cents to 3003.2c.
What caught my eye that gold's low today at $1,643.71 occurred much higher than Friday's $1,625.76. Instructive also was the higher high at $1,661.71 versus Friday's $1,658.43.
Silver's performance on the low side mirrored gold's, with today's low at 2983c versus 2920c. Today's 3034c high hit about where Friday's stuck at 3031c.
Also belying gold's weakness was the gold/silver ratio's jump to 54.792. And the continuing sky-high premium on US 90% coin -- some wholesalers have stopped offering it until they can fill backorders. Haven't seen it this scarce since the fall 2008 panic. And small gold coins are very hard to find. The usually low-cost small Mexican coins -- 20, 10, 5, 2-1/2, & 2 pesos -- simply aren't available. Krugerrand premium is at a 4 or 5 year high.
Course I'm no more'n a natural born fool from Tennessee, but all that doesn't sound like a market fixing to fall further. Until I am bloodied again, I'm going to conclude tentatively that silver & gold saw their intraday lows last Friday. Only intraday lows lower than Friday's, 2920 cents & $1,625.20, would gainsay that working hypothesis.
In any event, if that bottom isn't behind us, it is near. Coming nearer all the time, to the rising whine of the croakers who croon that the gold & silver bull market is over. What do these people DO on their lunch breaks? Silver & gold bull market continues, don't let johnny-come-lately analysts who don't know a silver dollar from a silver ETF shake you.
My wife Susan & I had intended to take a little three day vacation to recover from the holidays, but her 94 year old aunt passed away, so our vacationette will be interrupted by a funeral. However, I will not be publishing a commentary the rest of this week.
Above I gave you the downside limits for silver & gold. Buy any decline. Also, buy any breakout that takes Gold over $1,685 or silver over 3100c. As I said above, I have already been buying.
On 7 January 1800 was born Millard Fillmore US President from 1850 to 1853. Vaulted to the presidency as vice-president when Pres. Zachary Taylor died, he is consistently listed among the ten least accomplished presidents, which ranks him pretty high in my book. If he didn't do much, then he didn't do much wrong, either.
Fillmore justified my suspicions of his worth when travelling in England in 1855. The University of Oxford offered him an honorary degree, but Fillmore turned them down. He explained that he had neither the "literary or scientific attainment" to justify the degree, and he "lacked the benefit of a classical education" and thus could not understand the Latin text of the diploma, adding that he believed "No man should accept a degree he cannot read."
My kind of president.
Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger