An old poker rule says, "Never draw to an inside straight." That means, never bet that the smallest odds will turn out in your favor, or, always take the main chance. Stocks, both the Dow & the S&P500, have reached a Relative Strength Index (RSI) over 70. In that territory, a market is very much overbought, and the next big move will be down. Trouble is, markets can stay overbought or oversold sometimes longer than people have money. But that and an MACD in the stratosphere, and trading at the top of the Bollinger Bands all prophesy some correction in stocks' future, soon. Some indices rose today, some fell -- indecision? Exhaustion? Dow gained 67.12 (0.49%) to 13,779.33 but the S&P500 did no more than add 2.25 (0.15%) to 1,494.81. Dow in Gold keeps flirting with a top, while the Dow in Silver has dead broken down, trading the last two days below its 200 day moving average. Not impossible, but hard to picture that stocks will advance much more against gold. I would still sell stocks and put the proceeds into gold. Looky there! That US dollar index has itself a little-old uptrend going. 'Tain't much, but it is a series of higher lows. Course, there are lower highs, too, so it's moving into an even-sided triangle that will eventually break up or down. Dollar index today gained 6.5 scanty points (0.08%) -- Hey! somebody hold a mirror under its nostrils to see if it fogs up! I think that thing may be dead -- to close at 79.937. Top of the trading range is 80.20, 20 day moving average at 79.91, so maybe twill head higher. Watching currencies is like watching a flea circus: most of what's happening is only your imagination. After the politicians jawboned the yen down from 126.43 in November to 110.96 four days ago, the BOJ head has jawboned it back up to 112.75 cents/Y100 today, up 0.03%. That's probably as low as the yen will stoop this trip. Euro closed unchanged today at $1.3319. Big roadblock above is $1.3400. US$1=Y88.69=E0.7508=0.030 856 oz Ag=0.000 593 oz Au. Question you have to keep asking yourself is, Why does silver keep on outperforming gold? Yes, indeed, why? I wish I knew. At least it confirms what I am seeing in the physical market, where 90% silver coin has soared. Again today silver outran gold, adding 26.2 cents (0.82%) to 3240.9c while gold lost $6.50 (0.38%) to 1,686.30. Once again, eye-catching, strange doings in gold & silver today, odd moves stirred by phantoms. World was rocking along just fine with gold knocking on $1,695, it's high. Eased off to $1,692 right at 10:00 then a safe fell from the sky on its head. In 15 minutes it had gapped down to $1,683, & traded sideways & punch drunk the rest of the day, dipping as low as $1,683.80. Gold hit its 50 DMA at 1693.85, but no big reason that ought to have occasioned such a sudden drop. Today's fall took gold back to the uptrend line from its $1,626 low on 4 January, so no real damage was done. I expect it will rise again tomorrow, for another knock on that $1,695 door. Gold's doing fine as long as it doesn't close below $1,663.97, its 200 DMA and where the uptrend from the June '12 low now rests. Silver improved yesterday's breach of the downtrend from the 3449c November high, but has risen for the last eight (8) days running. That performance is hard to maintain, & makes me sweat a little, wondering if silver doesn't need a few days moving sideways or lower to rest. High at 3243.5c nearly reached the 3250c resistance. Whatever hit gold today hit silver as well, but silver only dropped 15c -- a gappy drop -- from 3235c to 3220c, the day's low. From there it easily recovered. It may be nothing more than the natural born fool speaking, but silver just feels very strong. Tomorrow will solve the mystery or prove me once again a fool. Even if silver & gold see a few days' correction here, the bottom was posted 4 January & there's not much risk in buying here. That Hillary Clinton, she is something! I thought she had beat out the Wicked Witch of the East for good looks, but durned if she hasn't outdone herself lately. I reckon she's having her make up done at a School for Morticians somewhere -- a real money-saving deal. Mercy! If she ever got hold of your leg a-biting, you'd just have to saw it off at the knee to get shut of her. I don't want her mad at me -- she's liable to have Tennessee invaded! Ever the frugal ones, the thrifty Scots on 23 January 1647 sold the captured Charles I (Stuart) to the English parliament. The English didn't know they probably could have held out & the Scots would have paid them to take him back. On 23 January 1964 the 24th Amendment to the US constitution was ratified, eliminating the poll tax in federal elections. What I don't understand is why anybody was taking a Pole with 'em to vote, and why on earth they were taxing 'em.
Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
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