The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 8 February a.d. 2013 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  1-Feb-13 8-Feb-13 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 3,194.20 3,142.50 -51.70 -1.6
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,669.40 1,666.00 -3.40 -0.2
Gold/silver ratio 52.263 53.015 0.750 1.4
Silver/gold ratio 0.0191 0.0189 -0.0003 -1.4
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 173.48 173.63 0.15 0.1
Dow in gold ounces 8.39 8.40 0.01 0.1
Dow in Silver ounces 438.60 445.28 6.68 1.5
Dow Industrials 14,009.79 13,992.97 -16.82 -0.1
S&P500 1,513.17 1,517.93 4.76 0.3
US dollar index 79.09 80.26 1.18 1.5
Platinum 1,686.20 1,713.50 27.30 1.6
Palladium 756.00 751.10 -4.90 -0.6

The week never lies. Silver & gold are wallowing along sideways & lower, platinum is climbing even against the wind, the dollar surprised everyone by moving higher, while the mania in stocks continues feverish.

The US dollar index rose 3.2 basis points today to 80.236, trying to digest its 46.2 basis point jump yesterday. This slams it up against an internal resistance line and the downtrend line prevailing since November. Last Friday the Euro punched to a spike top at $1.3711 (intraday). Yesterday it tumbled 0.92% (large move for currencies), wrecking its uptrend by plunging through the uptrend line and settling below the 20 day moving average ($1.3430). Today it confirmed its lower intentions by both opening and closing lower. Whoops -- did I mention that it closed below the last intraday peak ($1.3394), too? A break below the last cluster of peaks around $1.3150 will add to the conviction that the euro's rally has ended.

Meanwhile the yen, having made new low after unbelievable new low, rallied today, up 0.97% to 107.78c/Y100. First confirmation of a trend change, a rise through the 20 day moving average, won't come until 110.10c. Those Japanese aren't playing fair with their currency war, & the other Nice Government Men won't like it. Pretty soon they'll wax angry.

Stocks rose today: Dow 48.92 (0.35%) to 13,992.97 and S&P500 8.54 (0.57%) to 1,517.93. Dow could not today hold on at the high, 14,022, but before this mania ends most likely will, & exceed the last peak. Generally when people get drunk, they will keep on drinking till they pass out. This ends in multiple woes, both digestive and cranial, but past some point they just can't stop. Manias work the same way.

The charts of the Dow in Gold and the Dow in Silver tell me more than the raw Dow chart. Today the raw Dow poked its head through the top of what might be a diamond top, but we can't be certain what that means yet. Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver both rose to the top of formations that could be topping or continuation formations. Monday will tell us a lot. Question here is, can stocks gain more on silver & gold before they turn down? A question of how much, not if.

Silver & gold were arguing with each other again today. Silver gained 3.8 cents (0.12%) to 3142.5c while gold lost $4.40 (0.26%) to end at $1,666.00. For the week silver lost 1.6% and gold lost 0.2%.

Look at the chart: both metals are forming even-sided triangles. What's happening? They're being batted from one side of the triangle to the other. Nothing much to say until they escape their imprisonment up or down. Y'all can examine the silver chart at or gold at

Nobody likes this stalling, but look further on those charts and you'll see that silver & gold alike remain above their uptrend lines from the June 2012 lows. There's nothing wrong here, but the mania in stocks is pulling attention & bucks away from silver & gold. This is the time to ask yourself whether you believe the mania in stocks or not. If not, it's time while stocks are high for you to sell them and put the proceeds into silver & gold.

Or you could wait until the crash a few weeks hence.

I can't get this Drone thing straight in my mind yet. Let's see. The US sends aircraft over the air space of a foreign nation. Those then kill not only US citizens who have not been adjudged guilty of any crime in any court, but also all the civilians of that foreign nation unlucky enough to be standing around at the time. Can somebody explain to me how this is NOT an arrogant act of aggressive war under international law? Not murder under US law & the law of nations? And Americans wonder why Moslems & other foreigners hate the United States?

On 8 February 2013 "The Dukes of Hazzard" ended it's 6-1/2 year run on CBS television, a tragedy for which my sons have not yet forgiven CBS.

Good news! The last of our pregnant Jerseys, Cornelia, dropped her calf today and it was a little heifer. We lost one of four calves, but he was the only bull. Rest were all heifers.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
8-Feb-13 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,666.00 -4.40 -0.3
Silver, $/oz 31.43 0.04 0.1
Gold/Silver Ratio 53.015 -0.141 -0.3
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0189 0.0000 0.1
Platinum 1,713.00 -8.50 -0.5
Palladium 751.10 1.05 0.1
S&P 500 1,517.93 8.54 0.6
Dow 13,992.97 48.92 0.4
Dow in GOLD $s 173.63 1.08 0.6
Dow in GOLD oz 8.40 0.05 0.6
Dow in SILVER oz 445.28 1.02 0.2
US Dollar Index 80.26 0.03 0.0
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,667.60      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,710.96 1,723.46 1,723.46
1/2 AE 0.50 849.97 878.41 1,756.82
1/4 AE 0.25 424.98 447.54 1,790.17
1/10 AE 0.10 174.99 182.60 1,826.02
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,626.41 1,640.41 1,673.54
British sovereign 0.24 392.55 396.55 1,684.59
French 20 franc 0.19 311.34 315.34 1,689.02
Krugerrand 1.00 1,694.28 1,709.28 1,709.28
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,677.60 1,692.60 1,692.60
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 958.87 875.49 1,750.98
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 425.24 446.08 1,784.33
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 176.77 181.77 1,817.68
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 2,000.41 2,017.41 1,673.22
.9999 bar 1.00 1,673.44 1,684.44 1,684.44
SPOT SILVER: 31.45      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 30.50 34.00 44.44
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 29.00 33.00 43.14
90% silver coin bags 0.72 22,844.25 23,173.25 32.41
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 9,233.50 9,308.50 31.55
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 3,145.00 3,185.00 31.85
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 319.50 322.00 32.20
1 oz .999 round 1.00 31.55 32.00 32.00
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 32.70 33.70 33.70
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,713.00      
Platinum Platypus 1.00 1,738.00 1,778.00 1,778.00
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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