The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 4 March a.d. 2013 Browse the commentary archive

I am so thankful that we own the best congress money can buy. Well, somebody owns it. But one alert Congress-thing, Maxine Waters of California, alerted the entire country with a devastating result of sequestration. She warned that 170 MILLION jobs could be lost to sequestration.

This is terrifying, especially when you learn that only 134 million people are working in the US. Sequester will be so catastrophic that they will have to hire 40 million people and then FIRE them to meet her projected job loss.

I couldn't make this stuff up if I tried.

By the way, have y'all been having trouble understanding what sequestration is? Bernard Obama is threatening to lay of millions & maybe even open the prisons (I made that up. He hasn't said that yet, but give him 48 hours), but what's it really all about?

Reducing federal government spending by an across the board 2% (two percent). It doesn't actually reduce government spending. After adjusting for inflation and exempting defense & other spending, the CBO estimates that even with sequestration, spending will increase by $110 billion over the next 10 years that sequestration will supposedly cut $850 billion.

Meanwhile, Ben the Beneficent is PRINTING $85 billion a month, while these folks are arguing & threatening to shut down the Yankee government over cutting $85 billion A YEAR.

Y'all, we beat the Italians to it. We have nothing but comedians in office already.

Stocks reached their highest price since October 2007 today at 14,130 intraday. Dow closed near that high at 14,127.82, up 38.16 (0.27%). S&P500 rose 7.00 (0.46%) to 1,525.20. High closes in 2007 were 1,565.15 & 14,164.53.

And I anticipate higher closes yet this week.

Both the Dow & S&P500 continue to trade in a megaphone or Jaws of Death pattern. Dow today closed at the top Jaw, but the S&P has been falling off for the last two weeks. It did NOT make a new high today as high as the previous 1,530.98 intraday high posted on 20 February AND 19 February. It's an odd divergence, no more than a cloud the size of a man's hand on the horizon, but still there.

And how about that Nasdaq 100? Of the major indices, it alone has not joined in the general jubilation. It's September high at 2,878.38 has remained safe from any challenge. Today it closed at 2,759.53 and has been dropping since 19 February, too.

Back in May 83 pretty well stopped the US dollar index' advance. It went higher later, to 84.10 in July, but when it fell below 83 and tried to recover, 83 stopped it in August, so there's some kind of Kryptonite there at 83.

Today the dollar index lost 0.11% to close down 8.7 basis points at 82.207. Not plain yet whether that's the rally's limit, but odds remain it will rise more, since a trend in force remains in force until violated.

The euro rose 0.06% today to $1.3027, but it don't amount to a hill of beans. It has broken support and appears headed for $1.2600. Also the hot money is piling on the shorts. Then, too, a financial earthquake could happen any time in Europe. Present situation is like the Phony War ("Sitzkrieg") that reigned in the short time after Hitler conquered Poland( Sept. 1939) then invaded France & Belgium in May 1940. 'Twas hard to believe there really was a war, until the Panzers began rolling over Belgium, & didn't stop till they reached Dunkirk.

Yen rose a piddling 0.15% to 106.9c/Y100. Sitting right below the 20 day moving average.

I reckon everybody's so dispirited in the silver & gold markets they just didn't much bother trading today. Gold rose twenty cents (20c) to $1,572.10 while silver raged up 6/10 (six-tenths) of a cent to 2845.7c. Silver's range was 33 cents, from 2877c to 2844c. Gold ranged only $10 from $,1569.80 to $1,579.56.

Looks like we've run out of sellers.

Gold has touched back to its September 2011 downtrend line with Friday's low at $1,564. That earlier intraday low on 21 February fell at $1,554.30.

Silver, on the other hand, on Friday exceeded its earlier low for a new one at 2796.2c. This remains above (at) the downtrend channel line.

I don't want to rely on conspiracy to explain every- thing, but why are so many clever analysts throwing up their hands & confessing these markets keep fooling them? And why do so many establishment types want suddenly to publish articles with headlines like "Dollar is king again" or "Gold going to $1,200"?

Folks, they're harvesting us.

But back to silver & gold. Until contradicted, I will continue to assume we saw the bottoms last week. Of course that needs to be confirmed. Remember, the worse the reaction, the higher the rally following. There is one whopper of a rally coming after this. And if you just want to be harvested, listen to all those folks telling you to dump silver & gold & buy stocks.

Keep on watching silver & gold. Buy some if the waiting gets on your nerves. Sentiment is so widely negative that we must be near an historic bottom.

TODAY'S QUOTE: "In the end, more than freedom, Athenians wanted security. They wanted a comfortable life, yet lost it all - security, comfort, and freedom. When they finally wanted not to give to society but for society to give to them; when the freedom they wished for most was freedom from responsibility - Athens ceased to be free and was never free again." -Edward Gibbon, British historian, quoted by Charles Demastus in Freedom Watch.

If any of you garden, or even have flowerbeds, you MUST go see the Back to Eden film about mulching with composted wood chips. Http:// My daughter-in-law introduced me to it last year, & Susan & I covered our garden with this mulch. Drought cannot touch it, bugs will not land on it, plants thrive insanely. Go. Read. You will not be able to believe the results.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
4-Mar-13 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,572.10 0.20 0.01%
Silver, $/oz 28.46 0.01 0.02%
Gold/Silver Ratio 55.245 -0.005 -0.01%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0181 0.0000 0.01%
Platinum 1,564.20 -7.30 -0.46%
Palladium 712.50 -6.15 -0.86%
S&P 500 1,525.20 7.00 0.46%
Dow 14,127.82 38.16 0.27%
Dow in GOLD $s 185.77 7.50 4.21%
Dow in GOLD oz 8.99 0.36 4.21%
Dow in SILVER oz 496.46 1.24 0.25%
US Dollar Index 82.21 -0.09 -0.11%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,572.85      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,615.32 1,625.54 1,625.54
1/2 AE 0.50 805.57 831.64 1,663.29
1/4 AE 0.25 406.72 423.69 1,694.75
1/10 AE 0.10 165.04 172.62 1,726.20
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,538.71 1,544.71 1,575.91
British sovereign 0.24 372.47 382.47 1,624.77
French 20 franc 0.19 293.65 296.65 1,588.92
Krugerrand 1.00 1,595.85 1,605.85 1,605.85
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,582.85 1,597.85 1,597.85
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 904.39 825.75 1,651.49
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 401.08 420.74 1,682.95
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 166.72 171.44 1,714.41
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,886.75 1,902.39 1,577.83
.9999 bar 1.00 1,578.35 1,589.35 1,589.35
SPOT SILVER: 28.57      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 30.50 34.00 44.44
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 28.00 31.00 40.52
90% silver coin bags 0.72 21,106.80 21,356.80 29.87
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 8,059.40 8,429.40 28.57
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,857.00 2,897.00 28.97
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 290.70 291.70 29.17
1 oz .999 round 1.00 28.67 29.12 29.12
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 29.82 30.92 30.92
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,564.20      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,589.20 1,629.20 1,629.20
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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