The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 13 March a.d. 2013 Browse the commentary archive

Silver & gold gave us good news today, stocks continued to levitate (well, some indices did), while the dollar rose & the euro took a hit.

Italian government tried to sell bonds today, but had to pay the highest yield since last December. That pulled on the euro like lead galoshes, so it sank 0.54% to $1.2959. That's the euro's lowest close so far in this move, and edges the Euro down toward its 200 DMA at $1.2842. From here $1.2600 seems virtually a given.

Yen meantime was - actually- unchanged at 104.11 cents per 100 yen. I suspect the Japanese will jawbone it lower.

Although the US dollar today rose 29.7 basis points to 82.874 (up 0.38%), it appears to have peaked day before yesterday. If so, it will soon fall & break that sharp uptrend. It has already practically hit my 83 target with an interday high at 82.94.

Stock indices argued with each other today, some up, some down. The two stars, the Dow & S&P500 both eked out gains. Dow rose 5.22 to 14,455.28. S&P500 rose 2.04 to 1,554.52, but 2007's 1,565.15 high still eludes it.

But let's glance at the Dow in Gold & the Dow in Silver. What, ho? Dow in Silver did not follow through yesterday's breakdown from a rising wedge, but didn't disprove it, either. As overbought as perfume among a bunch of 13 year old girls.

Dow in Gold performed about the same, but still lower than the wedge's peak. Way overbought & MACD is rolling over downwards. Hopeful.

Silver & gold edged down today, but without damaging anything. Gold lost $3.20 & closed Comex at $1,588.30. Silver lost 20.9 cents to 2892.2c.

Today gold punched higher through its 1,590.83 twenty day moving average, but closed a little lower than yesterday. However, the breakout from the pennant has not been gainsaid, so unless gold closes lower than $1,575, gold has a breakout & uptrend. Today's range was $1,596.41 to $1,585.52 on the low side.

Don't forget that gold gapped up yesterday, & trading back into the gap, as it did today, is normal.

Picture with silver differs just a little, without a clear breakout above its pennant, but poked its head through the upper boundary yesterday and today. First tripwire of a rally, the 20 DMA at 29.09, isn't far above. Like gold, silver traded back into its gap, but filled it altogether.

These are all hopeful signs that silver & gold have indeed reversed & turned up, but hopeful only. Silver must scuttle above 2950c and gold above $1,600 to confirm that reversal.

Watching. Waiting. Soon. No fun in that, just caution.

As if we needed more proof that American culture has probably probed a nadir from which it will ne'er recover, a headline in the LA Times today read, "Are Sheryl Sandberg [Facebook Executive] & Nate Silver [statistician] America's greatest thinkers?" Other nominees, like NYT economy columnist Paul Krugman, are too egregiously dopey to mention. And this happens in a nation that used to boast minds like Thomas Jefferson, Patrick Henry, PT Barnum, & Bozo the Clown. Lo, how have the mighty fallen! SPECIAL OFFER: DINGED MAPLE LEAVES

Throughout history one reason that no country ever minted pure gold (24 karat) coins is gold's softness. It won't wear well in handling, and dings (flattens slightly) when dropped, so generally coin gold has been alloyed.

But since 1979 Canada has issued the Maple Leaf in 24 karat, and others have since followed. To further confuse matters, a few years ago Canada stopped issuing Maple Leaves in 0.999 (99.9%) fineness and began issuing them in 0.9999 (99.99% or "four nines") fineness.

A customer sold me six of the three-nines (99.9%) fine Maple Leaves that turned out to be dinged. Somebody dropped them on their rim & slightly flattened that spot. One has a little red copper spot on it. No big deal, as gold is gold & over time all premium disappears.

Selling them to a wholesaler, I'll take a discount. I figure I might as well pass that discount on to one of y'all, and we both get a better deal.

I have only these six coins, and will sell them as Two lots of three coins each at $1,620 (2% premium) each plus $25 per order shipping, or a total of $4,885.00 for a three coin lot. Price based on today's closing gold price at $1,588.30.

Sorry, no re-orders at this price, just these two 3-coin lots.

Special Conditions:

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail.

We will not take orders for less than the minimums shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed.

If you want faster shipping, please send a wire (wire instructions will appear on your trade confirmation). ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to No phone orders, please. Please do NOT order by replying to this email, because it will delay your email.

Your email must include your complete name, address, & phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

Repeat, you must include your complete name, address, and phone number. Our clairvoyant quit without warning last week and we can no longer read your mind.

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will sell at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.

4. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail.

5. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

6. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.

7. Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
13-Mar-13 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,588.30 -3.20 -0.20%
Silver, $/oz 28.92 -0.21 -0.72%
Gold/Silver Ratio 54.917 0.284 0.52%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0182 -0.0001 -0.52%
Platinum 1,591.10 -1.90 -0.12%
Palladium 769.25 -4.15 -0.54%
S&P 500 1,554.52 2.04 0.13%
Dow 14,455.28 5.22 0.04%
Dow in GOLD $s 188.14 7.50 4.15%
Dow in GOLD oz 9.10 0.36 4.15%
Dow in SILVER oz 499.80 3.77 0.76%
US Dollar Index 82.87 0.30 0.36%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,588.90      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,631.80 1,642.13 1,642.13
1/2 AE 0.50 813.80 840.13 1,680.26
1/4 AE 0.25 410.87 428.01 1,712.04
1/10 AE 0.10 166.73 174.38 1,743.82
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,554.44 1,560.44 1,591.96
British sovereign 0.24 376.27 386.27 1,640.91
French 20 franc 0.19 296.65 299.65 1,604.97
Krugerrand 1.00 1,611.90 1,621.90 1,621.90
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,598.90 1,613.90 1,613.90
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 913.62 834.17 1,668.35
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 405.17 425.03 1,700.12
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 168.42 173.19 1,731.90
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,906.00 1,921.74 1,593.88
.9999 bar 1.00 1,594.46 1,605.46 1,605.46
SPOT SILVER: 28.95      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 30.50 34.00 44.44
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 28.00 31.00 40.52
90% silver coin bags 0.72 21,593.00 22,129.00 30.95
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 8,171.50 8,541.50 28.95
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,895.00 2,935.00 29.35
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 294.50 295.50 29.55
1 oz .999 round 1.00 29.05 29.50 29.50
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 30.20 31.30 31.30
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,591.10      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,616.10 1,656.10 1,656.10
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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