The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 14 March a.d. 2013 Browse the commentary archive

Dow rose for the tenth (10th) straight day, S&P500 has risen 11 out of the last 13 days. Oh, friends, it just don't work this way. Markets can't rise forever, & though stocks may get more rabid & frothy yet, it still don't work this way.

But then, denying any eventual pay-day is pretty much the main stock in trade of the yankee government, the Fed, & American society. As John Calvin might say, Lots of luck.

Dow added 83.86 (0.58%) to 14,539.14, and -- did I mention -- it's tenth new high running. S&P500 added 8.71 to end on its high at 1,563.23, still a little off that 2007 high at 1,565.15. Will probably get wilder, crazier, & drunker before it breaks, but look out then!

Dow in gold made a tinier higher high today, to 9.15 oz (G$189.15 gold dollars) over 9.14 (G$188.94). This moves sidewise on the chart, & hath stalled right about where my target was (9.12oz).

Dow in silver did make a higher high today, to 504.74 oz. Broke out upside from a rising wedge, but only slightly. Might have another 10 oz in it.

The US DOLLAR INDEX reached over that 83 resistance today at 83.166, & sellers were waiting on it with a sledge hammer, cold-cocked it, & knocked it down plumb to 82.427. Time I am writing this it is trading 82.559, down 35.6 basis points (0.46%) on the day. I make that the first half of a key reversal. Lower price tomorrow puts the second & last piece in place.

Euro was the big gainer off the dollar's tumble, gaining 0.37% to $1.3005, but you know, you can put lipstick on a hog and hang earrings on it, but it's still a hog. And first time you let it loose, it'll run back to wallow in that mire.

Yen rose a meaningless little bit, 0.04% to 104.07. Stay away.

US$1=Y96.09=E0.7689+0.034755 oz Ag=0.006286 oz Au.

Today I've been staring at long term charts. Folks, when those stocks break down and silver & gold break up, Bogus Ben will spend months crying, gnashing his teeth, and moaning. Bull market in silver & gold has by no means ended, nor has the bear market in stocks. Y'all hide and watch.

Silver backed off 15 cents today to 2877.2 while gold gained $2.30 to $1,590.60, closing near the range's upper end.

From a low at $1,577.37 right after the market opened gold kept climbing today, threw a leg over Unchanged about noon, then kept climbing. That $1,995 remains a barrier. Dad-durn! Did I forget to tell y'all that today marks Gold's THIRD day of break-out above that little pennant? Or that it closed above its 20 dma ($1,588.01) today? What's the matter with my memory?

Shucks, I like to forgot that gold's MACD momentum indicator turned up, several days ago. Pointing up now for sure.

Too early to call it a rally, but that's a bunch of purple martins if there ain't no spring close behind.

Silver has looked weaker. 20 DMA is at 2909 cents, & silver can punch into the upper boundary line of that pennant, but can't break out of it. However, its MACD has turned up.

It's the little things that make life so much fun.

To please the bankers, on 14 March 1900 the US congress passed the so-called Gold Standard Act. The act changed nothing, but threw up a deceptive barrier to the millions of silver advocates. Why could the act do nothing? Because the US congress in 1792 had already made the standard coin of the US the "dollar" of silver (0.7734 troy ounce fine silver) They couldn't make gold the standard if they tried, because that act was as far beyond them and unconstitutional as suddenly declaring that throughout the US the "foot" would henceforth have only ten inches. Once congress "sets" a standard, it can't change the standard later -- unchanging is what a standard's all about., The banks, of course, wanted the so-called gold standard because it really was no gold standard at all, but only a standard that made paper & bank deposits equal to gold for a while, until they could elbow gold out of the system.

On 14 March 1791 the first handicapped woman balloonist, the German Margareta von Krummbein, successfully ascended to 800 feet before her balloon tragically was hit by lightning, caught fire and tumbled her to her demise in the Rhine River below.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
14-Mar-13 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,590.60 2.30 0.14%
Silver, $/oz 28.77 -0.15 -0.52%
Gold/Silver Ratio 55.281 0.366 0.67%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0181 -0.0001 -0.66%
Platinum 1,587.80 -3.30 -0.21%
Palladium 768.80 -0.45 -0.06%
S&P 500 1,563.23 8.71 0.56%
Dow 14,539.14 83.86 0.58%
Dow in GOLD $s 188.95 7.50 4.13%
Dow in GOLD oz 9.14 0.36 4.13%
Dow in SILVER oz 505.30 5.52 1.10%
US Dollar Index 82.56 -0.36 -0.43%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,590.90      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,633.85 1,644.20 1,644.20
1/2 AE 0.50 814.82 841.19 1,682.38
1/4 AE 0.25 411.39 428.55 1,714.19
1/10 AE 0.10 166.94 174.60 1,746.01
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,556.40 1,562.40 1,593.96
British sovereign 0.24 376.74 386.74 1,642.93
French 20 franc 0.19 297.02 300.02 1,606.97
Krugerrand 1.00 1,613.90 1,623.90 1,623.90
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,600.90 1,615.90 1,615.90
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 914.77 835.22 1,670.45
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 405.68 425.57 1,702.26
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 168.64 173.41 1,734.08
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,908.40 1,924.15 1,595.88
.9999 bar 1.00 1,596.47 1,607.47 1,607.47
SPOT SILVER: 28.87      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 30.50 34.00 44.44
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 28.00 31.00 40.52
90% silver coin bags 0.72 21,535.80 22,071.80 30.87
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 8,147.90 8,517.90 28.87
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,887.00 2,927.00 29.27
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 293.70 294.70 29.47
1 oz .999 round 1.00 28.97 29.42 29.42
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 30.12 31.22 31.22
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,587.80      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,612.80 1,652.80 1,652.80
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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