The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 1 April a.d. 2013 Browse the commentary archive

In some European countries Easter Monday is still a holiday, so maybe that's what tamed markets today. They were mighty calm, whatever the cause.

Dow pushed up to a new intraday high at 14,605.72, but ended the day 5.69 (0.04%) lower at 14,562.17. Five day chart could be paying to gather strength for another upward move, or rolling over. Lines in the sand are 14,550 and 14,400.

S&P 500 lost 7.02 (0.45%) to end at 1,562.17. Both indices remain within broadening top or megaphone formation, so there's a downside break coming, whether before or after higher prices.

Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver have diverged. Dow in Gold closed lower today, and resistance about 9.11 oz (G$188.32 gold dollars) held. Closed at 9.10 oz (G$188.11), down 0.28%.

On the other hand, last Thursday the Dow in Silver closed above the top boundary of that megaphone but not through longer-term support. Today it jumped up 1.48% to 512.50 ounces. Around 525 ounces it meets very strong resistance.

The scrofulous US dollar, scabby but still the world's reserve fiat currency, lost 40.2 basis points (0.52%) today, tumbling back from Kryptonite resistance at 83 to end 82.727. Looks to be rolling over, but remember that the US dollar is widely considered to be the "safe haven" currency, however loudly that contradicts reason & common sense. (Markets do have to make sense, & often don't.) Thus another scare in Europe could send money running into dollars.

The euro today rose 0.25% to $1.2850, leaving a gap between it and last Wednesday's intraday low at $1.2751. That $1.2800 level is the morale breaker. Euro remains below its 200 day moving average, roughly the equivalent of scuba-diving while wearing anvils tied to both ankles.

Long since have I renounced trying to make sense of the Japanese yen. It appears to have spent 2/3 of March making a sort of bottom, and climbing, however microscopically, upward. Today it gained 0.88% to 107.14 and touched its 50 day moving average. Maybe it will climb more, but who would take a risk on it?

Gold and silver gainsaid each other today. Silver fell 37.9 cents to 2791.3 at Comex close, gold rose $5.20 to $1,600.00 (dead on).

Both markets could barely fog a mirror today. Gold range was less than $5 -- $1,600.76 to $1,595.18 -- while silver ranged 33 cents from 2788 to 2821. Are they alive? Barely.

Gold closed very oddly at $1,600. It did rise, and it remained the whole day above its 20 DMA ($1,596.30). Last week's fall occurred on falling volume, a good sign. So far Gold has weathered attacks that drove it to $1,591. Whether one further attack might breach that line of defense remains to be seen.

Silver today closed right at the 1 March 2013 low. Tomorrow won't be equivocal: 'twill either follow through lower, or bounce up off that low.

If silver continues to fall, it might drop to 2700 cents, even 2650c. Gold might hit $1,570, or even $1,550 if it falls.

Gold silver ratio hit the top of a rising wedge today with a close at 57.321, highest so far this move. Higher that ratio moves, close we come to a reversal upward for silver & gold.

Must be time to tuck tail and run, huh? Silver & gold struggling, and sentiment universally negative? Not at all. Time to keep your head and look to buy more. If metals intend to break, it will happen this week. But that ax cuts both ways: they could also reverse dramatically. For today, though, odds favor lower to sidewise prices.

Silver & gold are close enough to a bottom & Europe close enough to dismemberment that waiting longer to buy becomes a real crap shoot. This is no time to stay bearish on metals.

Many thanks to all of you Facebookers who responded to my request to visit the At Home in Dogwood Mudhole page at and like or share it. I deeply appreciate your kind help.

Susan and I watched a heartwarming French movie last night, "The Well-digger's Daughter." On Netflix.

Early in March Susan & I attended the 2013 Abbeville Scholars Conference in Charlottesville, Virginia, "Music & The Southern Tradition." It covered everything from Singing Billy Walker (1809-1875) who invented shape note singing and wrote A Southern Harmony hymnal and first put the now well-known music to "Amazing Grace" to Bruce Springsteen and the Southern Tradition (go figure that!), and included real music by real musicians. You can get the 9 CD set from It's at the bottom of the page.

On 1 April 1572 The Sea Beggars under Guillaume de la March land in Holland & capture the small town of Briel. It was the first foothold gained by rebels for Dutch Independence in the 80 Years' War. Depending on your viewpoint, they were either pirates or privateers, terrorists or patriots. It's interesting that whenever a great people is threatened in life or liberty, men & leaders seem to rise up spontaneously from their bosom.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
1-Apr-13 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,600.00 5.20 0.33%
Silver, $/oz 27.91 -0.38 -1.34%
Gold/Silver Ratio 57.321 0.952 1.69%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0174 -0.0003 -1.66%
Platinum 1,596.40 25.20 1.60%
Palladium 782.80 15.70 2.05%
S&P 500 1,562.17 -7.02 -0.45%
Dow 14,572.85 -5.69 -0.04%
Dow in GOLD $s 188.28 7.50 4.15%
Dow in GOLD oz 9.11 0.36 4.15%
Dow in SILVER oz 522.08 6.79 1.32%
US Dollar Index 82.73 -0.40 -0.48%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,598.50      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,640.06 1,652.05 1,652.05
1/2 AE 0.50 818.72 845.21 1,690.41
1/4 AE 0.25 413.35 430.60 1,722.38
1/10 AE 0.10 167.74 175.44 1,754.35
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,554.31 1,568.31 1,599.99
British sovereign 0.24 378.54 388.54 1,650.57
French 20 franc 0.19 298.44 301.44 1,614.57
Krugerrand 1.00 1,617.68 1,632.68 1,632.68
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,608.50 1,623.50 1,623.50
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 919.14 839.21 1,678.43
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 407.62 427.60 1,710.40
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 169.44 174.24 1,742.37
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,917.52 1,933.31 1,603.48
.9999 bar 1.00 1,604.09 1,615.09 1,615.09
SPOT SILVER: 27.93      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 30.50 34.00 44.44
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 28.00 31.00 40.52
90% silver coin bags 0.72 20,967.38 21,292.38 29.78
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 7,869.13 8,239.13 27.93
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,792.50 2,832.50 28.33
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 284.25 285.25 28.53
1 oz .999 round 1.00 28.03 28.48 28.48
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 29.18 30.28 30.28
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,596.40      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,621.40 1,661.40 1,661.40
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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