Don't y'all get tired of this shell game? It might be entertaining if the goofs in charge had any imagination & could invent news ways to manipulate, but, NO! They pull the same old tired tricks over & over, like some old, washed up con-man. Whoops. No accident there -- that's what they are!
Today, since the gold market was threatening to cross $1,600, the Federal Reserve "leaked" (Wink! Wink!) minutes of the last FOMC meeting, which revealed a "disagreement" (Wink! Wink!) among the members about continuing Quantitative Easing. Fed explained the early release by saying the minutes had been "accidentally" (Wink! Wink!) released to a list of congressional staffers, etc, yesterday. The minutes prompted stock markets to take the news that QE "might" end some time in the future as a sign that the economy is improving, so stocks' future is bright. Of course, they would also have interpreted news of a comet about to hit the earth in 30 days as bullish, too. When you're drunk, any news is good news.
And coincidentally (W!W!) Goldman Sachs was one of the names on that list that received the minutes early, and today Goldman Sachs issued a gold price forecast cutting their target from $1,615 to $1,530 in 3 months, $1,490 in 6 months, and $1,390 in 12 months, and $1,290 by end 2014.
This is the same old shell game, using the same old tired flunkies, the FOMC and Goldman Sachs, using the same broken jawbone to talk down gold. Not concerted? Then why did Deutsche Bank lower it's gold forecast yesterday, or Societe Generale on 2 April? Some of those are the same fronts the US treasury has been using to run its gold suppression scam for over a decade. And of course Goldman has enough slavish customers who will rush out and short gold, and drive the market down for a day or two.
But folks! This is the same tired old scam they've been running for years. The Nice Government Men don't even have imagination enough to enlist some new moves or at least new players. But the same goofs have made the same wrong statements about gold for so long it's tough to grasp why anyone believes them.
On the other hand, Kurt Pfafflin of Daniels Trading in Chicago, who writes a well-reasoned, workmanlike commentary on precious metals, noted in today's issue that Commitments of Traders reports promise good things for silver & gold. Last time CoT figures looked like this was December 2008, with gold at $750. By mid- February 2009, Gold had rallied to $250, and by December 2009, to $1,225. Kurt also noted that the last time speculative hedge funds had a short position this big, in Sept 2007 at $12, in 2 months silver hit 2007 and in 6 months was over $20.
Past performance guarantees nothing, but these examples point out that when negative sentiment reaches extremes, it usually walks hand in hand with a market reversal.
Y'all can subscribe to Kurt's report at http://www.danielstrading.com/offers/941/277/ and if you trade futures you ought to consider his services. (I have no financial interest in pointing you in his direction. I just like his writing.)
Stocks hit new all time highs today. It just don't get no better than this! Dow closed up 128.78 (0.88%) at 14,802.24. S&P500 felt even perkier, rising 19.12 (1.22%) to 1,587.73.
It's not safe for me to try to parse a crazy chart like this. Stocks are in a craze right now, & crazed people make crazy charts. I can only look at the moving averages and the existing trend & say, Well, a trend in force remains in force until violated.
But I can back away and warn y'all that stocks have on an inflation-adjusted basis, a gold basis, and a silver basis, stocks have been in a bear market (primary down trend) since 2000, 1999, and 2001. That trend has not yet turned. Y'all can buy the Fed's baloney if you want, but it gives me the heartburn.
Dow/Gold today gapped up to a new high (9.51 oz) and closed at 9.50 oz (G$196.38 gold dollars). This repeats the gappy pattern that has baffled me in this chart, which has sent out more wrong signals than a Boy Scout learning Morse Code. Dow/Silver, on the other hand, however, has left its island reversal in place. Closed today at 535.29 oz, up 1.78%.
The US dollar strengthened a little today, up 9.7 basis points (0.12%) to 82.493, but did nothing encouraging on the chart. Dollar has rolled over & is pointed toward the ground.
Japanese yen his a new low at 100.21 cents/Y100, down 0.76% today. Them Japanese are just a-marching to inflation-prosperity day by day!
Euro was flat today, down 0.09% to $1.3070. It has now nearly reached the $1.3100+ area where it stopped back in March. 'Bout time for a correction, unless it can jump over that 50 DMA at $1.3138.
Somebody hit gold upside the head with a ball- peen hammer. Lost $27.90 (1.76%) today to $1,558.30. Today took back 81% of the $34.40 gold had gained in the last three days.
Silver lost 22.7 (0.8%) cents to 2763.9c. That was 20% of the last three days gain of 111.8c.
What at once catches my eye is that the Gold/Silver ratio today FELL and did not rise. Thus asks my mind, "Why did silver remain so strong? Quirk, or sign of firm underlying strength? "
Gold's low came today at $1,557.86 about 1:15 p.m. It had angled down at 45 degrees all day, but they hit it an extra hard lick then, to break it below below $1,565.
Before y'all go hunting a straight razor to cut your throats, take a look at that 4 month chart. Today wasn't good, but it didn't smash the uptrend, either. It appears that as long as gold can cling on above $1,550, it can continue climbing. Last intraday low was $1,539.40. If I were manipulating gold, I'd want to hit it hard tomorrow to try to break that $1,539.40. Can they do it? Market'll tell us tomorrow.
Silver's 4 month chart is even less distressed than gold's. It reacted back from an internal trend line, nothing to panic over. Market will tell us tomorrow also what silver's relative strength today meant.
I was called to task for panning Bitcoin yesterday. In all fairness, y'all can get your questions answered about Bitcoin at http://bit.ly/eawhtg I have no dog in this fight, but I will promise y'all that no market continues with a chart like Bitcoin's for very long. It is NEVER "different this time." You can repeat that mantra to a chart till you're blue in the face, but it will NEVER change the chart.
How do I know? I've tried it, & just made a fool out of myself.
Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger