The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 24 April a.d. 2013 Browse the commentary archive

Something smells of mackerel. Stock indices today closed mixed with the Dow down and the S&P500 up 0.01 point. Several other indices fell. I am always suspicious of a two day close at the same price. It usually promiseth no good thing.

Dow closed down 43.16 (0.29%) at 14,676.30. S&P500 closed at 1,578.79. After yesterday's punch & close through the 20 DMA, the Dow fell back today, but still lodged above that 20 DMA. Might be the limit of this little 4 day rally, might not. Yesterday some clown hacked the Associated Press website and put out a false report that terrorists had attacked the White House (how anybody could tell, I don't know, since the chief terrorists already lives there). Stock market plunged 150 points on that news, but came back when the rumor proved false. Jumpy, I'd say.

Dow in gold and Dow in silver resumed their fall today. Dow in gold closed 10.25 oz (G$212.09 gold dollars), down 1.46%. Dow in silver closed 636.72 oz, down 0.81%.

Currencies were quiet today. US dollar bounced off the egg shell of that dome it has formed, but that might just be the dollar taking a good run at that resistance. Closed 82.910, down 11.1 basis points or 0.14%.

Euro rose barely, from $1.3000 to $1.3016, up 0.12%. Yen remained flat at 100.48 cents/Y100.

I remind y'all that flat markets don't necessarily mean dead markets. It might be flat because nobody cares to buy or sell, or it might be flat because buying & selling are matched, forces waiting for an edge.

Metals came back today, but with a quirk. Gold gained $14.80 (1.05%) to $1,423.40, highest close of this recovery. But that was the Comex close, and in the aftermarket it is trading at $1,427.50. On Comex silver closed up only 1.6 cents to 2283.3, but is up 1% over yesterday in the aftermarket, at 2305c. Paint the tape, anyone?

Gold hit today's low about 8:00 a.m. NY time at $1,419.06. About 8:30 it gapped up to $1,428+, then hit its high at $1,431.78. Rest of the day was spent oscillating between $1,429 and $1,422. Now it has gapped up again above $1,430. This doesn't match Monday's $1,436.84 high, but certainly is pushing toward it.

Now that Monday high has become the resistance. Gold must close above that to signal that it will continue rising. The MACD is rising swiftly as is the RSI. The question remains, what will gold do when it reaches $1,525?

Silver had a flattish day, ranging from 2286 to 2330. It was all over the place, but with an upward turn after 2:00 p.m. Wasn't it ODD that silver closed up only 1.6 cents on the Comex, but in the aftermarket is trading now at 2314.5, up 33.2 cents? Shucks, I don't know WHAT that means.

Y'all just be patient here. Silver & gold primary uptrend is not broken, bull market has not ended, and both metals will return for fireworks before long. Meantime, keep watching for another buying opportunity.

Somebody wrote asking me if that zinc oxide would work as a deodorant for stinky feet, too. Yes, it certainly will, but after you spread it on your feet, put socks on, or you'll mess up Mama's sheets.

Here's another health tip that will make y'all laugh, but it works. Take two tablespoons of organic apple cider vinegar "with the mother," the cloudy stuff that grows in vinegar (I use Bragg's), add 1 tablespoon of maple syrup, local honey, or molasses and fill to top of glass with water. Drink it every day for joint pain, or just to make your face shine.

Friend of mine tried it for shoulder pain, & it worked the first day. Might work for you.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
24-Apr-13 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,423.40 14.80 1.05%
Silver, $/oz 22.83 0.02 0.07%
Gold/Silver Ratio 62.340 0.605 0.98%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0160 -0.0002 -0.97%
Platinum 1,429.80 13.00 0.92%
Palladium 666.45 -5.70 -0.85%
S&P 500 1,578.79 0.01 0.00%
Dow 14,676.30 43.16 0.29%
Dow in GOLD $s 213.14 7.50 3.65%
Dow in GOLD oz 10.31 0.36 3.65%
Dow in SILVER oz 642.77 1.44 0.22%
US Dollar Index 82.91 -0.11 -0.13%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,427.50      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,474.61 1,478.89 1,478.89
1/2 AE 0.50 731.08 754.79 1,509.58
1/4 AE 0.25 369.11 384.53 1,538.13
1/10 AE 0.10 156.20 164.16 1,641.63
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,390.84 1,404.84 1,433.22
British sovereign 0.24 338.05 348.05 1,478.55
French 20 franc 0.19 266.51 269.51 1,443.57
Krugerrand 1.00 1,458.19 1,473.19 1,473.19
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,437.50 1,452.50 1,452.50
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 820.81 749.44 1,498.88
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 364.01 381.86 1,527.43
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 151.32 155.60 1,555.98
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,709.81 1,725.81 1,431.37
.9999 bar 1.00 1,432.50 1,443.50 1,443.50
SPOT SILVER: 23.05      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 28.50 32.00 41.83
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 25.50 29.00 37.91
90% silver coin bags 0.72 19,054.75 20,054.75 28.05
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 6,431.00 6,801.00 23.05
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,305.00 2,380.00 23.80
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 235.50 240.50 24.05
1 oz .999 round 1.00 23.15 24.05 24.05
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 24.30 27.55 27.55
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,429.80      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,454.80 1,494.80 1,494.80
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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