The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 25 April a.d. 2013 Browse the commentary archive

Frankly, I don't feel like saying a word today. I know y'all think of "equities" when I write "stock," but I think first of "cattle, sheep, & pigs." Some family dogs got into our sheep pasture last night & killed six sheep. Got caught at it, and so solved the mystery of what happened to the other six a few days ago. We lost sheep & family pets. Death in no way ever goes down easy. Never.


Stocks rose a little today, but nothing to kiss Mama over. Dow added 24.50 (0.17%, get out your microscope) to close 14,700.80. S&P500 gained 6.37 (0.4%) to 1,585.16. Both markets remain above their 20 day moving averages, the S&P500 more enthusiastically. It has nearly reached its previous intraday high of 1,597.35. Dow remains a long ways from that 14,887.51 comparable high.

Both silver & gold rose like maniacs today, so the Dow in Silver & Dow in Gold took another tumble. Dow/Silver lost 4.36% to close at 608.98 oz. (remember, when it falls it means silver is gaining value on stocks). Dow in Gold lost 2.03% to 10.06 oz (G$207.96 gold dollars). Both are drawing nigh to their 20 DMAs below (9.85 oz & 578.59 oz.)

Bear in mind that the Dow/Silver & Dow/Gold can fall manydifferent ways mathematically. Important point is that stocks are losing value against metal, pointing to a bottom in metals & a top in stocks.

US Dollar Index rose 17.7 basis points (0.23%) to 82.760, but still failed to clarify its intent. Needs to close above 83+ tomorrow to confirm it means to go higher. Euro was crushed today, down only 0.05% to $1.3010, but crushed because it reached as high as $1.3094 then crashed back almost to the 20DMA at $1.3004. Yen remains flat at 100.72 cents/Y100.

Both silver & gold rose today, but silver with more gusto. Gold added $38.40 (2.7%) to $1,461.80 and silver rose 130.7 cents (5.7%) to 2414c.

On the way down gold left an up glitch at $1,475-$1,490, and today's high stopped at $1,467.88. Frankly, this is not much to go on for forecasting. Gold might rally all the way to $1,540, through its 20DMA (1,492.35) & still fall back to confirm its bottom, or fall lower. We can't know until we see how it behaves at $1,500.

This leaves me in a conundrum: buy some or wait. What if it DOESN'T come back? What if it keeps on rising through $1,540? Well, I reckon I'll buy some then.

Silver's performance today lends more weight & credibility to both metals. MACDs for both have turned up, and they are moving in unison. Gold/Silver Ratio fell today to 60.555 from 62.340 yesterday, a huge 10.5%. More, silver broke above 2380c resistance.

All this is positive, but I want more proof we won't see one more plunge. Sorry -- once burned, twice shy.

On 25 April 1915 Australian and New Zealand troops landed in Turkey at Gallipoli. It was a deadly trip for most, ending in disaster. There's a fairly good movie about it called "Gallipoli."

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
25-Apr-13 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,461.80 38.40 2.70%
Silver, $/oz 24.14 1.31 5.72%
Gold/Silver Ratio 60.555 -1.785 -2.86%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0165 0.0005 2.95%
Platinum 1,462.80 33.00 2.31%
Palladium 680.20 13.75 2.06%
S&P 500 1,585.16 6.37 0.40%
Dow 14,700.80 24.50 0.17%
Dow in GOLD $s 207.89 7.50 3.74%
Dow in GOLD oz 10.06 0.36 3.74%
Dow in SILVER oz 608.98 -33.79 -5.26%
US Dollar Index 82.76 0.18 0.21%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,467.30      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,515.72 1,520.12 1,520.12
1/2 AE 0.50 751.48 775.83 1,551.67
1/4 AE 0.25 379.41 395.25 1,581.02
1/10 AE 0.10 160.56 168.74 1,687.40
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,429.62 1,443.62 1,472.78
British sovereign 0.24 347.47 357.47 1,518.58
French 20 franc 0.19 273.94 276.94 1,483.37
Krugerrand 1.00 1,499.58 1,514.58 1,514.58
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,477.30 1,492.30 1,492.30
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 843.70 770.33 1,540.67
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 374.16 392.50 1,570.01
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 155.53 159.94 1,599.36
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,757.48 1,773.48 1,470.91
.9999 bar 1.00 1,472.44 1,483.44 1,483.44
SPOT SILVER: 24.35      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 28.50 32.00 41.83
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 25.50 29.00 37.91
90% silver coin bags 0.72 19,984.25 20,984.25 29.35
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 6,814.50 7,184.50 24.35
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,435.00 2,510.00 25.10
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 248.50 253.50 25.35
1 oz .999 round 1.00 24.45 25.35 25.35
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 25.60 28.85 28.85
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,462.80      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,487.80 1,527.80 1,527.80
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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