Why, that stock market steamroller jes' keeps on a-rollin'! Dow today rose 106.2 (0.72%) on no news worthy of note other than lying government reports & straws in the wind. Never mind, it's enough that it has been rising and will keep rising, Amen. S&P500 gained 0.72% also (11.37) to 1,593.61, and missed its all-time intraday high of a few days ago by a gnat's whisker. It also (ho-hum) closed at another new all time high close.

Yet things are not what they seem. Dow in gold rose 0.36% today to 10.10 oz (G$208.79 gold dollars), and in spite rising stocks, remains in a down trend, now down about 10% from its high on 15 April and closing in on the trend-changing 20 day moving average.

Meanwhile the Dow in Silver also rose 0.45% to 513.21 ounces, yet it, too, remains in a downtrend, revealing stocks losing value against metals.

The euro was helped, momentarily, by Italy's finally forming a government. All things considered, that exactly reverses a rational conclusion. Lo, don't we know that Italian government has taken on so much debt that the economy is sinking, even while Italians are some of the most imaginative and entrepreneurial people on earth? Wouldn't any rational person conclude that the best possible thing that could happen to Italy is for the politicians to wrangle four or five years & never form a government? Shucks, any rational person long ago concluded that the very best thing Italy could do is default on its debt, let the banks take the hit for their own bad judgement, & let the country get back to work with lower taxes.

But there ain't a soul in currency markets or government who thinks that way, so the goofy euro, the liger or geep of currencies, the sterile hybrid of abstractions, rose 0.52% to $1.3100 & leapt in a single bound from its 20 & 50 DMAs to its 62dma. Look for $1.3128 to stop it cold, or, if it sneaks past there, $1.3202, both recent highs.

The grossly oversold yen is trying to rise, but today got feet tangled in its 20 dma (102.08) & ended up down 0.33% at 102.32 cents/Y100.

US Dollar index fell a meaty 56 basis points today or 0.2% to 82.152. Don't count the dollar down until it closes below 82, say, below 81.80.

Silver & gold mildly surprised me today since I thought they would take a breather after last week's rise. Gold gained $13.80 to $1,467.40, yet managed not to exceed Friday's high. Today's high reached only $1,476.62, lower by $6.02 from Friday's $1,482.64.

Gold's momentum is up, but mercy! Every young pup commodity trader in the universe is waiting to short gold around $1,500, after that terrible break on 12 April. That, and scared longs who will be selling to get out at the highest possible price, are waiting to sell gold at $1,500. That builds a big barrier in front of any advance.

Silver's in the same boat, only more so. Gained 36.4 cents today to close Comex at 2412.2c. Put that into perspective: the 20 DMA stands above at 2510c, support/resistance about 2650c. Silver has some tough slogging through deep mire to clear those barriers. However, higher aftermarket prices point to higher prices tomorrow.

But I've been thinking about silver & gold. Fact is, I've been thinking about little else. Ever as bruised & battered as they are, the bull market is not over, & won't be over until the Masters of the Universe now printing money & bailing themselves out finally run out of manipulating-printing-austerity-imposing-bank-bailing room & run their faces slap-dab against the wall. It will happen. I trust arrogance. Arrogance never learns, and it never fails. Y'all keep on buying silver & gold, because every silver & gold purchase is a vote against the Masters of the Universe.

Speaking of that, Bill Rice of Montgomery today wrote me about the "Buy Silver on May 1st" campaign. Y'all have to realize that the currency & financial system all rest on the same foundation: confidence. It is a confidence game, as in "con-game," and we are all being conned. Any effort that encourages people to escape the confidence game and disentangle some resources from that system is okay by me. At the very least go read Bill's entertaining article at http://bit.ly/16a5HA1

On 29 April 1553 a Flemish woman introduced the practice of starching linen into England. No kidding. Today in the US eight out of 11 teenagers do not know what starch is or how to use an iron.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

• Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
• NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
• NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
• NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
• What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
• One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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