The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 7 May a.d. 2013 Browse the commentary archive

Sorry I missed seeing y'all yesterday, but I had to drive up to Nashville with my son to see about a stock transaction. Livestock, that is. We needed a new Dorper ram. Found not one but two young ones with good genes.

Have y'all noticed that nothing much happens any more? In spite of the Internet, etc., the stuff that passes for news is just silly. After I lived in Europe & returned to the US I realized how vapid the US press was, with virtually every paper sharing the same opinion. No genuine discussion. But with the Internet, the news either puts you to sleep or tries to make you a Peeping Tom. What if I don't want to be a peeping Tom?

Back to markets today. Schlaraffenland draws ever nearer in the stock market. Yet again the Dow & S&P500 made new all time highs today. Dow gained 87.31 (0.58%) to 15,056.20, while the S&P500 clambered 8.46 (0.52%) to 1,652.96. Be still, my beating heart.

This isn't over yet, and can rise substantially higher.

Dow in Gold has risen above its downtrend line & above its 20 DMA (now 10.21 oz), so I reckon we'll see higher numbers there. Closed today at 10.39 oz (G$214.78 gold dollars), up 2.01%, thanks largely to gold's fall.

Oddly enough, the Dow in Silver has only BARELY closed above its downtrend line. Barely. Ended today at 632.45 oz (up 1.42%). Remains above 20 DMA (613.19). Dow/Silver is tapping at its long term (since 2001) downtrend line. Gold, too, hit that long term downtrend line, and bounced down.

Yes, this is critical. Should they break out 3% above the downtrend, it might mean the long term trend has turned around. On the other hand, both are more overbought than at any time in the last 12 years.

Yesterday & today the US dollar index kept pushing on the egg-shell rounding top. Rose 25.2 basis points yesterday, then backed off 4.2 today to end at 82.295. It looks like this move will hatch with an upside breakout.

The yen, which has become more jimmied than a New York election and more engaging than timing a glacier race, rose 0.35% to 101.03 cents/Y100. Nipponese Nice Government Men (NNGM) are keeping it low & flat.

The euro, the Frankenstein currency, has come to life again. It's above its 20 DMA ($1.3078) and rose today 0.35% to $1.3077. Last week it met Black Mold & Kryptonite at $1.3243 & tumbled all week. Ain't much of an uptrend in the last two months, but is more up than down. Stay away.

Silver & gold fell today. Gold stumbled $19.10 (1.3%) to close at $1,449, but silver inched back only 0.6% (14.7 cents) to 2377.1 cents.

Because that $19.10 feels like such a big drop, I had to stare at the chart a while. Yes, gold did drop through its uptrend line, but not so far & did not close below the 20 DMA ($1,447.93). See

Gold appears to be slowly rebuilding. It will be interesting to see what it will do on this reaction. Support awaits at $1,425, more at $1,400. I've about decided we won't see a lower low. More likely seems a higher low, maybe even to $1,350. I'm looking to buy.

Silver tripped a bit, but remained within its ascending channel and above the uptrend line. Low came at 2350c, so there were enough buyers there to stop silver's fall. Silver is setting up differently to gold. Let's see if it drops out of that channel tomorrow. If not, I'll have to think seriously about buying hard. Here's the silver chart:

Silver & gold are working their way toward a resolution and upside reversal. Seasonally we might have already seen the low, or it could stretch into June. Just remain patient, keep your eyes on the horizon.

On 7 May 1926 a US report showed that one-third of the nation's exports were motors. Today, 9/10 of the nation's exports are dollars, electronic or paper. We don't make anything anymore except fiat money. Shucks, don't make not difference. We're all gonna get rich changing sheets and waiting tables. That's globalism.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
7-May-13 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,449.00 -19.10 -1.30%
Silver, $/oz 23.77 -0.15 -0.61%
Gold/Silver Ratio 60.957 -0.424 -0.69%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0164 0.0001 0.70%
Platinum 1,481.70 -26.50 -1.76%
Palladium 679.50 -16.50 -2.37%
S&P 500 1,625.90 8.46 0.52%
Dow 15,056.20 87.31 0.58%
Dow in GOLD $s 214.80 7.50 3.62%
Dow in GOLD oz 10.39 0.36 3.62%
Dow in SILVER oz 633.39 7.54 1.21%
US Dollar Index 82.31 0.25 0.31%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,449.50      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,495.88 1,501.68 1,501.68
1/2 AE 0.50 742.36 766.42 1,532.85
1/4 AE 0.25 374.80 390.46 1,561.84
1/10 AE 0.10 158.61 166.69 1,666.93
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,413.70 1,427.70 1,456.54
British sovereign 0.24 343.26 353.26 1,500.68
French 20 franc 0.19 270.62 273.62 1,465.57
Krugerrand 1.00 1,479.94 1,494.94 1,494.94
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,459.50 1,474.50 1,474.50
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 833.46 760.99 1,521.98
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 369.62 387.74 1,550.97
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 153.65 158.00 1,579.96
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,738.78 1,754.78 1,455.40
.9999 bar 1.00 1,454.57 1,465.57 1,465.57
SPOT SILVER: 23.83      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 28.50 32.00 41.83
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 25.50 29.00 37.91
90% silver coin bags 0.72 18,607.88 19,107.88 26.72
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 6,659.63 7,029.63 23.83
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,382.50 2,467.50 24.68
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 243.25 248.25 24.83
1 oz .999 round 1.00 23.93 25.03 25.03
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 25.08 28.33 28.33
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,481.70      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,506.70 1,546.70 1,546.70
Home Questions & Answers Articles & Resources
The Moneychanger, P.O. Box 178, Westpoint, TN 38486

Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

For complete details on how to buy from us or sell to us, please click here.