The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 20 May a.d. 2013 Browse the commentary archive

We may have seen the bottom in silver & gold overnight. Tentatively. First steps.

The whole financial world is so bogus. Fed propagandists have found their "We might end QE sometime soon" theme has worked such wonders that they're pedaling that bike overtime. Chicago FedHed Evans was seen spouting that nonsense today. Right, sure, the US economy will just keep on creating jobs (or the NGM will just jimmy the numbers further so the unemployment LOOKS smaller) & the Fed will slam on the brakes and make the whole addicted US economy go inflation-cold turkey. Sure -- when your grandmother grows a beard & moustache. A level of propaganda this preposterous shows that the gullibility of the American public cannot be overestimated -- nor the contempt Our Masters have for us.

Part of this fun today arose from the US dollar index falling back from its Friday high by 36.6 basis points (0.47%) to 83.748. I have been expecting it to continue to advance, but that's a pretty hefty stumble. Besides, currencies can only be parsed temporarily by technical analysis, since the Nice Government Men can change directions -- and exchange rates -- at any time for any reason.

Yen climbed 0.96% to 97.79. If we had found the yen passed out on the street, this would be the equivalent of barely fogging a mirror held under its nostrils.

Euro also shot up today, well, rose 0.37% to $1.2887. What tarnishes the luster on that? Friday it hit the neckline of a head and shoulders that began building last September. Whether the euro intended to drop further or not, it would ordinarily bounce off strong support like that. Neckline is around $1.2800 now. When the Euro breaks that level, 'twill drop like a hambone in swill.

Stocks stuttered & staggered on their way to Schlaraffenland today. Dow lost 19.12 (0.12%) to end at 15,335.28. S&P500 backed up 1.18 (0.07%) to 1,666.29. A mania cannot be parsed, so I won't even try to point to a top. When it stops, it will stop fast, hard, and humiliating.

Dow in gold & Dow in silver both dropped right smart today. Dow in silver perched at 679.51 oz, down 7.84 oz or 1.14%. Dow/Gold lost 0.17 oz (1.52%) to 11.078 oz.

Now, finally, to silver & gold.

Overnight SOMEbody (wink, wink!) tried to crush silver with massive sales in Asia (Sunday night our time). They drove silver down to 2023.5c, but that lasted only very briefly. By midnight New York time silver has climbed back above 2100c, and climbed slowly through the rest of European trading. By New York open it had reached 2180c, backed off, traded up to 2200c by noon, then in a single bound leapt to 2270c. Comex closed UP 22.9 cents at 2256.8c, after a range of 299 cents. Whew.

Today's trading paints the first half of a Key Reversal: a break to new low ground with a close higher than the preceding day (Friday closed 2233.9c). IF silver confirms with the second half of that Key Reversal tomorrow (a higher close than today's), you've got your sign that it's reversed. Permanently? Don't know. Have to see how it behaves, step by step confirming that reversal.

Silver's crucial support now is 2250c, where "crucial" means "must hold."

Gold suffered the same sort of attack that silver suffered, only with less effect. Drove it down to $1,336.50 in Asian trading, rose in a rounding bottom to $1,365 when Comex opened. Backed off, strengthened, then jumped square up $1,365 to $1,385 in one leap. High hit $1,398,60, tapping hard on $1,400.

This, too, marked the first half of a Key Reversal for gold, new low with higher close. Tomorrow to complete that Key Reversal gold must close above $1,384.30.

Y'all need to comprehend that looking at charts is a work continually in progress. It says something until it contradicts or confirms. Today's trading left double bottoms on both charts. For now, both metals have reversed, but they must confirm that Key Reversal tomorrow.

This may be the witness we've been waiting on. I bought a little of both metals, just in case. That higher close tomorrow will really stimulate my buying glands. SPECIAL OFFER

U.S. $5 modern commemoratives.

Today I was able to buy a good-sized lot of US $5.00 commemoratives (0.2419 troy ounce fine gold content). These have been minted over the last thirty years to the ancient US standard to commemorate various events. and are not to be confused with the American Eagle gold coin series. All are in proof or proof-like condition.

Based on today's gold close at $1,384.30, the premium for these coins over gold is a tiny 5.9%.

I will sell lots of Eight (8) each $5 gold commems ($354.50 each) for $2,836 + $35 shipping = $2,871.00 per lot.

If you order more than one lot, add only one $35 shipping charge.

Limit ten (10) lots per customer. All lots are sold subject to the special conditions below, no exceptions. Sorry, no re-orders at these prices.

Special Conditions:

If I have miscounted my inventory and come up short, the LAST person to order will receive fewer coins, at a price reduced to reflect the smaller quantity.

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail.

We will not take orders for less than the minimums shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed. ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to offers@the-moneychanger.com. No phone orders, please. Please do NOT order by replying to this email, because it will delay your email.

Your email must include your complete name, address, & phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

Repeat, you must include your complete name, address, and phone number. Our clairvoyant quit without warning last week and we can no longer read your mind.

2. When you give us an order, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will sell at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.

4. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail.

5. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

6. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.

7. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship. Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

Thanks.

On 20 May 325 the first Christian ecumenical council convened at Nicaea (Constantinople) in Asia Minor. At issue was the most fundamental doctrine of Christian orthodoxy & the nature of God, the Trinity. In spite of all the forces arrayed against it, orthodoxy prevailed.

On 20 May 1775 North Carolina became the first colony to declare its independence. On 20 May 1861 North Carolina became the eleventh state to secede from the union. North Carolina furnished more troops to the Confederacy -- 125,000 -- and suffered more soldiers killed -- 40,000 -- than any other Southern state.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
20-May-13 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,384.30 19.40 1.42%
Silver, $/oz 22.57 0.23 1.03%
Gold/Silver Ratio 61.339 0.240 0.39%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0163 -0.0001 -0.39%
Platinum 1,484.60 16.60 1.13%
Palladium 750.00 10.50 1.42%
S&P 500 1,666.29 -1.18 -0.07%
Dow 15,335.28 -19.12 -0.12%
Dow in GOLD $s 229.00 7.50 3.39%
Dow in GOLD oz 11.08 0.36 3.39%
Dow in SILVER oz 679.51 -7.82 -1.14%
US Dollar Index 83.75 -0.37 -0.44%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,390.20      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,431.91 1,436.77 1,436.77
1/2 AE 0.50 711.97 735.07 1,470.14
1/4 AE 0.25 359.46 374.49 1,497.94
1/10 AE 0.10 145.87 152.57 1,525.74
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,355.86 1,369.86 1,397.53
British sovereign 0.24 329.22 339.22 1,441.02
French 20 franc 0.19 259.55 262.55 1,406.27
Krugerrand 1.00 1,412.44 1,425.44 1,425.44
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,400.20 1,415.20 1,415.20
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 799.37 729.86 1,459.71
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 354.50 371.88 1,487.51
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 147.36 151.53 1,515.32
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,667.64 1,682.16 1,395.18
.9999 bar 1.00 1,395.07 1,406.07 1,406.07
SPOT SILVER: 22.81      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 30.50 34.00 44.44
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 28.00 31.00 40.52
90% silver coin bags 0.72 18,128.83 18,628.83 26.05
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 6,358.73 6,728.73 22.81
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,280.50 2,330.50 23.31
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 233.05 234.05 23.41
1 oz .999 round 1.00 22.91 23.56 23.56
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 24.06 25.16 25.16
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,484.60      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,509.60 1,549.60 1,549.60
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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