The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 3 June a.d. 2013 Browse the commentary archive

Thanks very much for your kind concern for my wife Susan. Her cardiologist at Vanderbilt took a look at her EKG from Friday & couldn't find a single thing wrong. But today my grandson, Tucker Bain, 15 has to have an emergency appendectomy, so I'd appreciate your prayers for him.

Y'all, these markets are waxing so preposterous, so laughable that it's too much even for a natural born fool from Tennessee to stomach. I'm embarrassed for 'em. They got no more shame than a starving, mangy dog.

Why, it don't matter, all bad news transmogrifies into good news. Today US factory activity dropped. Bad news for the economy? Naa, never mind, good news for stocks became it means more stimulus money-printing from the Fed, font of all economic well-being. In Europe the good news was -- y'all listen, this is rich -- that manufacturing was deteriorating more gradually than previously estimated! Hot ziggety dog! They're a-shrinking slower than they feared!

I could sit up all night & not hit on anything this outrageously hare-brained.

"General Custer, I've got great news! Those 40,000 Indians we thought were chasing us turned out to be only 39,800! And our packs are really light because we left half our ammo back at the fort!"

The good news that US factory activity is so bad that the Fed will have to print more dollars goosed the stock market. Dow rocketed upward 138.46 (0.92%) to 15,254.03 while the S&P500 shot up 9.68 (0.59%) to 1,640.42.

Y'all won't think me ill-mannered, will you, to point out the garbage can in the middle of the room? Stocks Friday closed below their 20 day moving averages, & they've established a downtrend since 22 May's key reversal -- you know, lower lows and lower highs? Might catch around the 50 day moving averages (today 14,890 & 1,601). No doubt WILL drop mo. (Listen, if Wm. Shakespeare can say "mo" for "more," so can I.)

Today it happened: Dow in Gold broke the 20 DMA. Closed 10.854 oz (G$224.38 gold dollars), right at the 20 DMA (10.81 oz or G$223.462), but it traded below it all day long. Also closed right at that long term downtrend line.

Dow in silver dropped 8.48 oz (1.26%) to 671.54 ounces. This touched the 20 DMA (664.63) but didn't close below it. Tomorrow. Tomorrow.

Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver are both arguing strongly that we have already seen prices lows in metals. Storm hasn't passed, sun isn't quite out, but looks like the danger has passed.

That old US dollar index fell & hurt itself today. Dropped 54 basis points (0.7%) to 82.675, well below its 50 day moving average (82.96). A close below 82.50 will suck all the morale out of dollar holders. Barring a dramatic reversal, like a close tomorrow above 84, dollar index is destined to study its reflection in the pavement.

Y'all won't believe this, but the yen, yes, the Japanese yen, touched its 20 DMA today (101.23) & closed above 100 cents at 100.49 cents/Y100, up 0.91%. Now stands above its 20 DMA also. Going higher? I reckon.

And on that shiny good news that Europe is falling apart slower than previously estimated, the Euro rose 06.2% to $1.3079. Poked its head through the overhead downtrend line, too. Probably has $1.3200 in its sights.

Poor old silver & gold bears will have to explain, I reckon, what happened today, how gold lost $18.90 on Friday but bounced right back by $19.10 to $1,411.70, & how silver lost 44.6 cents Friday but came back 48.7 cents today to close 2271.5c. Shucks, gold even closed above its 20 DMA (1,409.22).

All this does not yet quite define success, though, as gold has knocked twice before on that $1,415 door, only to have it slammed in its face. Gold must prove & improve today's recovery by closing ABOVE $1,415 tomorrow, and not some twenty cents, either, but preferably up over $1,420 -- stoutly.

Today's close pushes gold's face into the downtrend line from the April high, but doesn't push it through.

Gold has outlined a flat topped triangle, and the textbooks say those usually (u-s-u-a-l-l-y) break out upside. Tomorrow will tell. Odds favor higher gold tomorrow, if only for its spunky recovery from Friday's pummeling.

SILVER has traced out a trading range bounded by 2200c and 2329c. Today it touched its 20 DMA (2293c) but its range was a measly 60 cents. Public interest appears low & Commitments of Traders are signaling huge pessimism, both of which are GREAT NEWS for silver because advances only begin from oversold lows when optimism is scraping bottom.

But first -- the breakout over 2330c. Need to see silver prove itself.

Time is working against lower lows, as silver & gold usually put in seasonal lows in June. Can't be sure this push up is the beginning of another advance just yet, but if not now, then soon.

I remind you all: silver & gold remain in a bull market. If they do make further lows, they won't fall much below what we've seen. This is the worst time to climb out of the precious metals boat. Be patient, accumulate more. Let the croakers croak, let the whiners whine, let those whose time horizon reaches nearly to 5:30 brag, just keep it steady and stick with the primary trend, the bull market in silver & gold.

On 3 June 1808 was born in Christian County, Kentucky Jefferson Finis Davis who became the first president of the Confederacy. A man of amazing talents, intellect, & courage, he graduated from West Point in 1828 and was assigned to Wisconsin. Although he was absent during the Black Hawk War in 1832, his Colonel, Zachary Taylor, assigned him to escort Black Hawk to prison. The Indian later noted in his autobiography the kindness Davis showed him.

At Ft. Crawford Davis fell in love with his commandant's daughter, Sarah Knox Taylor, but Taylor refused to give his permission for Davis to marry her because he didn't want his daughter to marry a military man. Davis resigned and married her anyway. He moved to Mississippi where his brother gave him land. After three months of marriage, Sarah died of malaria at age 25. At the same time Davis nearly succumbed to the disease. For 8 years he became a recluse, worshipping his wife's memory. In 1842 he began his career in Mississippi Politics, and married again in 1845 to Varina Banks Howell, by whom he had six children.

In 1846 Davis raised a volunteer regiment and led it into the Mexican War, where he acquitted himself bravely. In 1847 he was appointed to fill an empty US Senate seat, where, ironically, he became chairman of the Committee on Military Affairs. In 1853 Pres. Franklin Pierce appointed him Secretary of War, in which office he helped to modernize the very army his country would be fighting only a few years later.

He was elected president of the new Confederacy. Against all the carpers who criticized him, after the war Robert E. Lee said, "You can always say that few people could have done better than Mr. Davis. I know of none that could have done as well."

After the war all the spite of the Radical Republicans was vented on Davis, who was arrested in Georgia and imprisoned at Fortress Monroe. When they placed him in irons it took four men to hold him down. He was indicted for treason but never brought to trial, as the yankee government knew they could never convict him since secession was both legal and constitutional. Only after two years was he released. He died in 1889.

Jefferson Davis was one of the most gifted and remarkable men North America has ever produced, and one of the most thoroughly Christian. I heartily recommend Felicity Allen's biography, Jefferson Davis, Unconquerable Heart. It is the spellbinding story of a great and noble hero.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
3-Jun-13 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,411.70 19.10 1.37%
Silver, $/oz 22.72 0.49 2.19%
Gold/Silver Ratio 62.148 -0.502 -0.80%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0161 0.0001 0.81%
Platinum 1,496.20 35.60 2.44%
Palladium 756.80 5.75 0.77%
S&P 500 1,640.42 9.68 0.59%
Dow 15,254.03 138.46 0.92%
Dow in GOLD $s 223.37 -1.01 -0.45%
Dow in GOLD oz 10.81 -0.05 -0.45%
Dow in SILVER oz 671.54 -8.48 -1.25%
US Dollar Index 82.68 -0.54 -0.65%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,410.60      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,448.69 1,457.86 1,457.86
1/2 AE 0.50 722.42 745.85 1,491.71
1/4 AE 0.25 364.73 379.98 1,519.92
1/10 AE 0.10 148.01 154.81 1,548.13
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,374.37 1,388.37 1,416.42
British sovereign 0.24 334.05 344.05 1,461.54
French 20 franc 0.19 263.36 266.36 1,426.67
Krugerrand 1.00 1,430.35 1,443.35 1,443.35
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,425.60 1,440.60 1,440.60
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 811.10 740.57 1,481.13
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 359.70 377.34 1,509.34
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 149.52 153.76 1,537.55
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,692.12 1,706.76 1,415.58
.9999 bar 1.00 1,415.54 1,426.54 1,426.54
SPOT SILVER: 22.66      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 29.00 32.00 41.83
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 26.00 29.00 37.91
90% silver coin bags 0.72 17,449.58 17,949.58 25.10
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 6,314.48 6,684.48 22.66
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,265.50 2,340.50 23.41
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 231.55 232.55 23.26
1 oz .999 round 1.00 22.76 23.66 23.66
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 23.91 25.66 25.66
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,496.20      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,521.20 1,561.20 1,561.20
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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