I trust y'all had a great holiday. My daughter Mercy had one of the happiest weddings I've ever attended. But enough of that -- back to the UNreal world.

Lo, stocks today climbed back up into the trading channel whence they had out-fallen in June. Dow gained 88.85 (0.59%) to 15,224.69. S&P500 added 8.57 (0.53%) to close at 1,640.46. All out of season (summer is seasonally slow for stocks) stocks are rallying, and will rally higher still.

Yet they can make no lasting headway against silver & gold. Dow in silver jumped up on Friday, but today closed down 0.7% at 800.25 oz. Dow in gold lost 1.22% to 12.33 oz (G$254.88). This is a broadening top, slow, tiresome, & tedious, but rewarding those who wait.

US dollar index gapped up on Friday to close at 84.71, up 1.56%, but today gave back 32.3 basis points (0.42%) to end at 84.207. Since that top doubles that of May, Friday's high likely marks the limit of this move.

Dollar's high Friday took the Euro to $1.2806, breaking support at $1.30 and tumbling all the way to major support at $1,2800. Today the euro gained back 0.3% to $1,28.67. After a long fall with a gap down on Friday, euro's fall ought to be finished. That second gap was an exhaustion gap. Euro ought to rally from here.

Japanese yen today closed at 99.07 cents/Y100, up 0.26%. Looks like it might have turned up, too.

Did y'all ever date somebody in high school or college and thought that somebody the neatest person in the world, until one day he (or she) said or did something that completely turned your mind the other way? That's exactly the OPPOSITE of what gold & silver did to me on Friday.

Friday's action changed my mind. I think silver & gold have made their bottom. Friday's attack, typically, hit a thin holiday market empty of traders, but failed to break either silver or gold to new lows. In fact, gold held on above $1,200. Today's higher closes confirm that strength.

Looking at the 12 day rate of change, it made a higher low than April's the last week in June and turned up.

Not much to go on, and recovery is liable to be slow here the rest of the summer, with a lot of frustrating sideways movement. But unless gold trades lower than $1,200 and silver below 1867 cents, June saw the lows.

BICBW -- But I Could Be Wrong.

Gold today jumped $22.00 to $1,234.90 while silver clawed its way through 1900 to end at 1902.5 cents, up 29.9 cents. That is a "cosmetic close", since I watched it all day and it seldom traded below 1910c.

Friday's action left blunted V bottoms in both metals. Gold must hold above $1,230 tomorrow AND advance. Silver needs to remain above 1900c to remain respectable. Twill get no respect if it doesn't close ABOVE 1920c. Assuming they confirm tomorrow with higher prices, I will be buying.

On 8 July 1865 four of the accused conspirators in Lincoln's assassination were hanged in Washington, DC. Don't y'all think it's curious in all these assassinations & surprise attacks & terrorism incidents that the yankee government is always in such a HURRY to shoot or hang the conspirators, lock away the evidence, & bulldoze the site? I reckon I am simply terminally suspicious.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

• Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
• NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
• NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
• NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
• What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
• One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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